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Forums - Politics Discussion - Obama: Ignoring Russian Aggression Would Have Global Consequences

 

What does Obama hope to accomplish? alterior motive?

I will post below. 29 14.29%
 
To calm the situation down 67 33.00%
 
See results 100 49.26%
 
Total:196
Branko2166 said:
Captain_Tom said:
Branko2166 said:
We can argue all day about who has the moral and or legal high ground in this case and cases in the past but when it comes down to it, it is simply a matter of real politik. Russia has interests in Ukraine and is willing to do what it takes to preserve them.

The west rolled the dice when they supported the coup in Kiev in spite of the fact that they had previously backed an agreement between the then Ukranian government and the opposition. It was extremely foolhardy to believe that Russia would stand idly by while a coup installed anti Russian government came to power in Ukraine and then was deemed legitimate by the west.
The fact that the west is seemingly determined to push NATO right on Russia's border and crossing the proverbial red line by attempting to incorporate the Ukraine into a military alliance designed to contain Russia made the Russian reaction totally predictable if not necessarily legal.

So here we stand unfortunately on the precipace of a major confrontation in Europe and one which should never have even come close to this point. Personally I think that Ukraine is not a fundemental interest of the west and they should recognise that it is Russia's red line. Unless they want to risk sparking a conflict in continental Europe the western powers should pursue a compromise agreement with Russia and should not be playing a zero sum game where the benefits are totally outweighed by the risks.

My 2 cents.

This brings up a lot of good points, and is a valid argument.  However I have to point out that letting Russia do this could cause NATO and the EU to lose all recognition.  

Russia (And some other countries for that matter) have been making fun of how the US/EU never follows through on its threats for a while now.  The difference this time is that Russia is actively testing if we will do anything about it.  It isn't just posturing anymore.

Unless we respond in kind, the West's legitimacy is forfeit.  I see three clear turning points that this situation can produce, and how I believe the West must respond:

1) Russia Invades Crimea and takes it from the Ukraine.  The West sanctions Russia and bans them from a few things (What is currently happening).

2) Russia invades all of the Ukraine Illegally.  The West really turns on the screws and throws every sanction and asset freezing they can at them.  Georgia is put on the track to being part of Nato, and the West moves away from as many Russian resources as it can.

3) Russia invades other countries along with the Ukraine (Poland, Georgia, or something else).  The West launches missile strikes and investigates a ground war with Russia  (Unlikely to happen unless China agrees to sit this one out).

I see where you're coming from but I disagee that NATO would lose credibility due to the simple fact that the Ukraine is not a member state. I know that NATO has plans to incorporate Ukraine at some point but that's a seperate issue.

As it stands right now I think both sides have a bit of room for manoeuvre. At the moment Russia is pushing for a federalised Ukranian state. What this means is that the central government would have less power but it would ensure the preservation of the current territory of the state not counting the Crimea. This could be something where there can be a middle ground. Hopefully they can all agree that Ukraine will continue to be an independent neutral buffer state.

Problem is that the coup installed western backed government does not appear to want to compromise in which case I can see Russia invading the Russian speaking eastern and southern regions. The economic situation in Ukraine is another reason why the EU would have issues bringing in Ukraine into their economic sphere. 

As for Russia invading other countries it's not gonna happen any time soon. Most are in NATO and with regards to Georgia, Russia has already managed to get what they want. They have ensured that as long as Georgia has territorial outstanding issues (South Ossetia, Abkhazia)  they will be in perpetual limbo with regards to entering NATO.

I think when it comes down to it NATO will not try to intervene if Russia does invade other parts or even the entirety of Ukraine. Sure there would be more sanctions and a media propaganda shitstorm but the bottom line is that the Ukraine is not worth fighting over for the west.

I'm hoping for the best but I don't see Russia backing down because as they see it they are being cornered and they would rather make a stand now before they are completely boxed in and have NATO forces even closer to their capital. 

It's just kind of funny because NATO would NEVER.  EVER.  Invade Russia unless Russia massively provoked them.  This whole "Buffer State" mentality is completily obsolete at this point (In regards to the West).



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@Captain_Tom

Evidently the Russians do not view it as a laughing matter. The tensions were high enough when NATO planned to install an anti missile system in Poland. Now imagine them doing the same along with troops in the Ukraine. To understand Russia's fear we have to take into account its history and the multiple invasions they have endured.
Unfortunately the ones that will suffer the most in this big power play will be ordinary Ukranians.



 

 

mai said:
Kasz216 said: 

2) The poll in 2006 wasn't 98% in favor or joining russia.   It was a two part split refferendum with two optionss

 

1)  Renounce independence and possibly get rid of autonomy.

2)  Stay Independent and maybe later join Russa.

There's no "maybe" or anything, it was exactly about joining Russia or Moldavia -- this is as close to Crimenian referendum as you can get, that was independent for 1-2 days afair. TMR is de-facto independent already, the question was about who will they join.

Here you go:

Original: Поддерживаете ли Вы курс на независимость Приднестровской Молдавской Республики и последующее свободное присоединение Приднестровья к Российской Федерации?

Word by word translation: Do you support Transnistrian Moldavian Republic independence policy, followed by free joining of Transnistria to the Russian Federation?

Yes 98% 

Original: Считаете ли Вы возможным отказ от независимости Приднестровской Молдавской Республики с последующим вхождением Приднестровья в состав Республики Молдова?

Word by word translation: Do you consider renouncing Transnistrian Moldovan Republic independence possible, followed by joining of Transnistria to the Republic of Moldova?

No 96%

Do not try  to be semantic Nazi here.

In otherwords... you had to vote for it to support the Trasnitistrian Independence  policy.

There is no around it.

 

Outside which, this part is a bit of a moot point since i'd already proven you wrong on your original concept.  (By showing the TMR poll was far more in favor of leaving moldova in the first place.



97% of Crimean voters support joining Russia: http://globalnews.ca/news/1211828/ukraine-crisis-97-back-russia-in-final-crimea-vote-count/

So if the citizens of Crimea believe they're Russian and want to be under Russia, who the hell is the US to say "no" to that?



the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:

1.  

Unless you can tell the future (I sure as hell can't!), I'm not sure if anyone should write off any future referendum result. Just because a poll says something, it don't mean shit. The actual results of the independence referendum (on the day) is what matters. I see it being very close. 

2.  Except it wasn't even disguised as anything.

Well if they were intent on annexing a region, wouldn't they have just done it? Rather than try and make it look like it was approved by the general population. The Russians were in Sevastopol anyway (a military base leased to them by Ukraine) and were actually 'invited' over by former president Yakanovich (or however you spell it). On that basis, i'm not sure if it was really an invasion to begin with. But, I'm just going to accept the will of the Crimean people. Ukraine itself is a very polarised nation (split between Russia and EU supporters). The west may say Crimea was rigged, but with so many Russian speaking people there in the first place, the result was obvious. They didn't come over night. 

 

3.   Only like ~100,000 people died...  Which is a small number compaired to the general pile of bodies generated by stalin's soviet Russia.

still I'm not sure if losing between 30-50% of an enthic population due to ethnic cleansing counts as "not a big" deal.

Just because something isn't your fight doesn't mean you have to support it, or want people to support it.

Show me a source please because i have never heard of this. 

That said, ethnic cleansing sort of is our buisness international law wise.  Even though rarely anything is done about it... and i'd think it's fair to argue that more then a majority vote should be needed for a group of people who suffered such penalties to be forced back into the nation that committed those acts on them.  Espiecially when they themselves are overwhelmingly against it, and a large portion of those who inflicted it opon them just so happen to ethnically be the poeple who inflicted it opon them.

The only thing that makes this "not our buisness" so to speak, is that Russia is fairly powerful.  That's a fine arguement to make, it's logical, but it should be made honestly.  It's not a matter of the US and UK "not bein a hypocrite because of iraq", or "Democratic majority."

There's plenty of wrong doing in the world beside Russia but why should it be left up to us to sort it out. Why are we that arrogant that we even think we can sort out everyone else's problems? Especially when the west likely caused today's problems by imposing empires on the less fortunate places of the world.

We are good at starting wars but crap at bring a long and prosperous peace to places we invaded like Iraq and Afghanistan, no matter our intentions.  Not like we could afford yet another war (partly why I think we stayed out of Syria) or that the public would appreciate a war when we are told to cut back on everything. 

It's just cowardice and being selfish.

Which is fine, I wouldn't start a war with Russia either.

That said, I'm not going to pretend to give false morality for the "brave" decision to basically ignore the whoe thing... or even worse, dump on the guy for basically ignoring the situation but at least mentioning so displeasure about the situation.

Where i'm from you blame people for hypocritical bad acts, and cheer them for hypocritical good ones.

The Modern era of no major wars basically boils politics to a game of "who got there first".



1) First off, generall polling is very accurate.  There is a reason people pay millions opon millions of dollars for polling after.  If you don't believe in polling you really shouldn't be a member of this site, since the whole premise of polling is the same to what VGchartz statistic modeling is.

Secondly, North Sea Oil.  Do you think UK polticians are going to allow the Scottish to have all the North sea oil if they vote to cede.


If the answer is no, (and quite honestly there is no answer but no) then there is zero way for scottland to fund it's government programs.  Scottland is more socalist then the rest of the UK, and it relies on the UK's general funds to pay for it.  Scotland is a drain on the UK.

 

And coincidentally because Scotland is so socialist.... Labor and the LDP would never vote for Scotland being allowed to leave... because otherwise this recent blip in Tory power would basically become the long term status quo.

 

2)  Put simply.  No.   If they just invaded and annexed Crimea, that turns from a open handed slap to a closed fist to the international community.  One which basically everybody including China would need to intervene with.

 

3)  I'm sure you haven't heard of a lot of ethnic cleansings... they're more common then history likes to admit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars#cite_note-5

That said... lets take an exagerrated hyperbolic example,  lets say the US south were to cede, and not only cede but decide to reintroduce slavery of all non whites.

IS that something that nobody should intervene in.   Should the US just  let that happen?  Is it none of the UK or EU's buisness.  If Russia and China tried to intervene, would you be critical?

 

The fact that you support that a group who was ethnically cleansed be forced to rejoin the people who committed that act opon them is morally abhorant, and you should return that liberal tag you generally seem glad to proclaim;.  I mean, espeically when the "Well majority vote!" arguement exists specifically because of that ethnic cleansing.

Not enough people agree with you to get your way electivly, well just murder off ethnic groups who disagree with you and then you'll have a majority, and it's all good.


The reasons you stated for lack of intervention mostly shows your lack of a true liberal attitude.  You are argueing from a point of what is soley most beneficial to you.  Which is fine, but own that.

You aren't a liberal, your someone who's politcs fit what best benefits him, and that coincidentally happens to mostly line up liberal.  

A true liberal would realize that the rights of a minority group needs to be protected past such things as a pure majoirty vote.   Hell even the Crimean Russians knew this, hence the need to inflate a voting percentage for a vote they already had won.




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 I haven´t read through all your posts, but i have 1 important thing to post: (its german though)

http://youtu.be/sdrBMRSFqOg



Kasz216 said:

1) First off, generall polling is very accurate.  There is a reason people pay millions opon millions of dollars for polling after.  If you don't believe in polling you really shouldn't be a member of this site, since the whole premise of polling is the same to what VGchartz statistic modeling is.

Polling works on a small group but to base the opinions of millions of people on what a couple hundred or couple thousand surely can't be that accurate. They are an indicator and nothing more. 

Secondly, North Sea Oil.  Do you think UK polticians are going to allow the Scottish to have all the North sea oil if they vote to cede.

What oil? It got mostly squandered away in the 1980s while the Norwegians have stockpiled there half for the future

If the answer is no, (and quite honestly there is no answer but no) then there is zero way for scottland to fund it's government programs.  Scottland is more socalist then the rest of the UK, and it relies on the UK's general funds to pay for it.  Scotland is a drain on the UK.

And coincidentally because Scotland is so socialist.... Labor and the LDP would never vote for Scotland being allowed to leave... because otherwise this recent blip in Tory power would basically become the long term status quo.

That may be true but those parties have little weight in Scotland (the English have no say). SNP are dominant now with 2/3 of seats in Scottish Parliament since 2007. And if they tried why can't Scotland be like the Scandinavian economies? Those countries are light in industry to say UK or Germany but have very high living standards and are very wealthy. But anyway, a federal Britain would of been better than splitting it up but nevermind.  

2)  Put simply.  No.   If they just invaded and annexed Crimea, that turns from a open handed slap to a closed fist to the international community.  One which basically everybody including China would need to intervene with.

As I said before it's not worth a war over and I think the fact that China is staying quiet is very wise

3)  I'm sure you haven't heard of a lot of ethnic cleansings... they're more common then history likes to admit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars#cite_note-5

I've not looked into Russian/ Ukrainian history in great detail so stuff like this i've never heard of but the 1940's were truly a dark time to live in. It's hard to believe anyone actually liked Stalin. 

That said... lets take an exagerrated hyperbolic example,  lets say the US south were to cede, and not only cede but decide to reintroduce slavery of all non whites.

IS that something that nobody should intervene in.   Should the US just  let that happen?  Is it none of the UK or EU's buisness.  If Russia and China tried to intervene, would you be critical?

It would be morally wrong to just let them re-establish slavery but my issue is how do we know when to have humanitarian intervention and when to just respect their sovereignty? It's up to the leaders at the time what their government can and can't do and where the boundaries of international law and human rights lay with national sovereignty. None of this has ever been clearly defined because of all the competing ideologies. It's impossible to know if we ever took the right decision at a given time and it's all based on perspective too. When do the intentions go from good will for fellow humans to outright imperialism. I don't know the answer but by not intervening, at least you had no way of making the said situation worse.  

The fact that you support that a group who was ethnically cleansed be forced to rejoin the people who committed that act opon them is morally abhorant, and you should return that liberal tag you generally seem glad to proclaim;.  I mean, espeically when the "Well majority vote!" arguement exists specifically because of that ethnic cleansing.

Tryanny of the majority? Ain't that the biggest flaw with democracy? It's just unfortunate it might be like this

Not enough people agree with you to get your way electivly, well just murder off ethnic groups who disagree with you and then you'll have a majority, and it's all good.

The reasons you stated for lack of intervention mostly shows your lack of a true liberal attitude.  You are argueing from a point of what is soley most beneficial to you.  Which is fine, but own that.

You aren't a liberal, your someone who's politcs fit what best benefits him, and that coincidentally happens to mostly line up liberal.  

A true liberal would realize that the rights of a minority group needs to be protected past such things as a pure majoirty vote.   Hell even the Crimean Russians knew this, hence the need to inflate a voting percentage for a vote they already had won.

You're right i'm not a true liberal, i'm more of a socialist than a liberal. But it's hard to have a decent and informed viewpoint on a distant people when I don't even know any Russians yet alone Crimeans or Tartars. I just like to comment on these kind of events 






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the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:

1) 

Polling works on a small group but to base the opinions of millions of people on what a couple hundred or couple thousand surely can't be that accurate. They are an indicator and nothing more. 

Secondly, North Sea Oil.  Do you think UK polticians are going to allow the Scottish to have all the North sea oil if they vote to cede.

What oil? It got mostly squandered away in the 1980s while the Norwegians have stockpiled there half for the future

If the answer is no, (and quite honestly there is no answer but no) then there is zero way for scottland to fund it's government programs.  Scottland is more socalist then the rest of the UK, and it relies on the UK's general funds to pay for it.  Scotland is a drain on the UK.

And coincidentally because Scotland is so socialist.... Labor and the LDP would never vote for Scotland being allowed to leave... because otherwise this recent blip in Tory power would basically become the long term status quo.

That may be true but those parties have little weight in Scotland (the English have no say). SNP are dominant now with 2/3 of seats in Scottish Parliament since 2007. And if they tried why can't Scotland be like the Scandinavian economies? Those countries are light in industry to say UK or Germany but have very high living standards and are very wealthy. But anyway, a federal Britain would of been better than splitting it up but nevermind.  

2)  Put simply.  No.   If they just invaded and annexed Crimea, that turns from a open handed slap to a closed fist to the international community.  One which basically everybody including China would need to intervene with.

As I said before it's not worth a war over and I think the fact that China is staying quiet is very wise

3)  I'm sure you haven't heard of a lot of ethnic cleansings... they're more common then history likes to admit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars#cite_note-5

I've not looked into Russian/ Ukrainian history in great detail so stuff like this i've never heard of but the 1940's were truly a dark time to live in. It's hard to believe anyone actually liked Stalin. 

That said... lets take an exagerrated hyperbolic example,  lets say the US south were to cede, and not only cede but decide to reintroduce slavery of all non whites.

IS that something that nobody should intervene in.   Should the US just  let that happen?  Is it none of the UK or EU's buisness.  If Russia and China tried to intervene, would you be critical?

It would be morally wrong to just let them re-establish slavery but my issue is how do we know when to have humanitarian intervention and when to just respect their sovereignty? It's up to the leaders at the time what their government can and can't do and where the boundaries of international law and human rights lay with national sovereignty. None of this has ever been clearly defined because of all the competing ideologies. It's impossible to know if we ever took the right decision at a given time and it's all based on perspective too. When do the intentions go from good will for fellow humans to outright imperialism. I don't know the answer but by not intervening, at least you had no way of making the said situation worse.  

The fact that you support that a group who was ethnically cleansed be forced to rejoin the people who committed that act opon them is morally abhorant, and you should return that liberal tag you generally seem glad to proclaim;.  I mean, espeically when the "Well majority vote!" arguement exists specifically because of that ethnic cleansing.

Tryanny of the majority? Ain't that the biggest flaw with democracy? It's just unfortunate it might be like this

Not enough people agree with you to get your way electivly, well just murder off ethnic groups who disagree with you and then you'll have a majority, and it's all good.

The reasons you stated for lack of intervention mostly shows your lack of a true liberal attitude.  You are argueing from a point of what is soley most beneficial to you.  Which is fine, but own that.

You aren't a liberal, your someone who's politcs fit what best benefits him, and that coincidentally happens to mostly line up liberal.  

A true liberal would realize that the rights of a minority group needs to be protected past such things as a pure majoirty vote.   Hell even the Crimean Russians knew this, hence the need to inflate a voting percentage for a vote they already had won.

You're right i'm not a true liberal, i'm more of a socialist than a liberal. But it's hard to have a decent and informed viewpoint on a distant people when I don't even know any Russians yet alone Crimeans or Tartars. I just like to comment on these kind of events 





1) Tell that to all the political polling.

 Assuming there is no oil.  There is no indepentent scotland.  They can't afford it.  

That said all the data i see suggest 30-40 years production at current levels with current drilling methods.


As for why Scotland can't be like the rich scandanvian countries....

Well for one.  Scotland isn't rich.  If it was that easy to just create a rich nation out of nowhere... every nation would be rich.

 Secondly, the scandanvian countries aren't actually doing all that swell... cutting back on their social programs and looking towards liberalizing their economies.

..outside norway anyway. 

Why is norway doing so well... you mentioend it... Oil.

Additionally, the british parliment would have to vote to allow scotland to leave.  Regardless of an independence vote.

 

2)  If they invaded directly, you'd of likely seen a war or at the very least, very real sanctions.

 

3)  I'm pretty sure one can draw a pretty stark line at ethnic cleansing.  It's one that's been consistantly been drawn actually and has been a line acknowledged by EVERYONE since the end of World War 2.

As for tyranny of the majority.  I don't know what it's like in the UK, but in the US we specifically have safeguards to protect minorties, as democracies very much should have.

 

Also keep in mind it's not like war is the only answer.  Hell war isn't even what Obama's talking about.  All he's talking about is some sanctions...

 

and some STRONG sanctions would eaisly cause a reverse course, as Russia's economy is extremely weak right now.

Economically penalizing countries for flagrantly violating minority rights seems like a no-brainer.


Hell, look what happened in the buisness world just recently with Firefox.

 




Kasz216 said:

In otherwords... you had to vote for it to support the Trasnitistrian Independence  policy.

There is no around it.

 

Outside which, this part is a bit of a moot point since i'd already proven you wrong on your original concept.  (By showing the TMR poll was far more in favor of leaving moldova in the first place.

You haven't proven anything aside you have reading comprehension problems, hence my pic above ;) i didn't had any concept, I had three points to critisize your concept that IRI survey disproves Crimean referendum. Out of those three you're trying to get rid of just one -- precedent of TMR survey and referendum shows that survey and referendum won't always match -- and that point you can't disprove, instead trying to nitpick semantics here.

TMR referendum and survey could be very well both valid. Why? I could just repeat what I've said already -- options differ. Given the situation of TMR and Crimea the people who chose independence in the survey are equally the same people who voted joining Russia as well, this is merely the wording issue that survey splits into different groups, while referendum shows they are the same. What you're trying to do is disregard the question here in its entirety  and to proove that independence doesn't equal joining Russia so people had to vote for this options, which is outright false -- do not consider people in TMR stupid, they are very well aware of what they're voting for. Here it is once again:

"Do you support Transnistrian Moldavian Republic independence policy, followed by free joining of Transnistria to the Russian Federation?"

Have you had understanding of the situation in PMR you'd have known that the whole independence, which it de-facto has already, only means independence from Moldavia at the very least with subsequent (that's the word used in the poll -- "последующее") joining to Russia at best, whatever the actual legal status TMR will have in the federation. That's pretty much the situation with Crimea, had they wanted to be independent just for the sake of it -- they'd have voted for option #2, which is part of the Ukraine BUT realisitcally with wider autonomy that Ukraine ilegally denounced in 1995, so practially indedepdent.



In general I find this is very sad that cetain people, those mean Grinches, are trying to disproove Crimenian referendum by all means -- suggesting it was cooked or whatever -- it just shows how much respect they have to the choice of the Crimenian people. 97% is unrealstic to you? Well, you may very well consider 98% in Transdnestria is unrealistic too. And 96% approval rate of joining Crimea among Russians is apparently cooked as well. And do not forget about another cooked referendum in 1991, that scored 93% for restoration of KrASSR (Crimenian Autonomus Soviet Socialisitc Republic) as a aprt of USSR (before that it was merely a provionce of UkSSR, Ukrainian SSR).

This is ALL conspiracy and never happaned.