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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will Nintendo debut new tech half way through this gen??

Fusioncode said:
The GBA had a 3 year lifecycle

No, it didn't. It was released in 2001 and discontinued between 2006-2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_boy_advance

And Nintendo was still publishing games in 2006, like Pokémon Mystery Dungeon, Drill Dozer, and Mother 3. They even published Final Fantasy VI Advance for the West in 2007.



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Mmm... ↓.



Nintendo 2018

English is not my native language.
seiya19 said:
Fusioncode said:
The GBA had a 3 year lifecycle

No, it didn't. It was released in 2001 and discontinued between 2006-2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_boy_advance

And Nintendo was still publishing games in 2006, like Pokémon Mystery Dungeon, Drill Dozer, and Mother 3. They even published Final Fantasy VI Advance for the West in 2007.

And there's no reason why Nintendo can't continue making the odd 3DS game through 2016/2017/even 2018 if they want to, even if they release another portable in say 2015. 



Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
snowdog said:
The 3DS is selling fine. What's the point of this thread..?

It's down in every region, down 50% in Japan, and is trending to sell less than 10m this year. For a Nintendo handheld to continuously drop it's not good, it actually peaked in the US in its first year and has stayed at that level ever since.

I agree it's fine right now, I'm just forward thinking. What if it drops from sub 10m this year to sub 7m next year? That's dying platform (PS360 last year) levels isn't it?

Ill bet u it sells over 10 million this year.

I don't do bets, but I would bet against that.

US is down (again) 25% yoy so far and that trends around 2.8 - 3m (down from 3.8m) Europe is similar but slightly less than US. Japan was 4.9m last year, if it continues at being down 50%~ YOY that's a whopping loss of 2.45m there.

US - 3m
Europe - 2.5m
Japan - 2.5m
Rest of WW 10% - 800k~

WW = 8.8m.

Unless we see intervention from Nintendo this is the trending forecast. What will Nintendo do to rectify that? Another Pokemon? Another redesign? Another price cut? Isn't that all a bit too soon?  Redesign and Pokemon gave a good boost but nothing near what was expected, and 3DS is already very cheap, you can get a 2DS in the UK for like £70 if you shop around, insane.

This summer it will be 3 years since the first price cut, 2 years since the XL released which is still at its original price, and almost 1 year since 2DS launch. its not out of the realm of possibility that they get $30-40 price cuts this year, 2DS-$99, 3DS-$129, XL-$159 with further drops/bundles over the holidays. And yes 2DS is very cheap but the XL is still the most popular sku showing that people are willing to spend extra for the premium sku just like the $600 PS3 was selling better than the $500 PS3 and the $400 360 was outselling the $300 360 and the $350 Wii U was outselling the $300 Wii U.

There are also some big games that could cause boosts and prevent 3DS from dropping so fast. Monster Hunter 4G in Japan, Smash Bros could be huge since its the first handheld game of the series. Pokemon Z or Gen 3 remakes, Dragon Quest 11 is possible for the holidays or early 2015. Also smaller potential games that can give reasonable boosts like Persona Q, Final Fantasy Theatrythm, Kirby, Mario Golf, Metroid, Majora's Mask 3D, an original Donkey Kong game, Kid Icarus sequel, Mario 3D Land 2, Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Fire Emblem sequel, Bravely Second, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs.

There is still plenty of games that could release on 3DS  to ensure it doesnt have huge YoY drops. 3DS has been pretty consistant, selling between 13-15 million each year and I expect it to do 10-13 million this year, 7-10 milllion next year and have a successor in 2016.


3DS peak year in shipments was 13.8 million. It's never gone above 14 million as far as I know. So 13.8 is probably the peak, it will be down every year from now on most likely. 

Well I was talking sellthrough which vgchartz has

2011-13.25

2012-14.10

2013-14.85

but if u want to talk fiscal shipments than its

2011/12-13.53

2012/13-13.95

2013/14-11.65 with one quarter to go, likely over 13 million.

So my point still stands that 3DS yearly sales have been very consistant for 3 straight years and I know it has peaked but thats not what I was disputing, we were talking about whether or not it will sell over 10 million this year and I strongly believe it will.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

3DS doesn't need an upgrade. PS Vita should. 3DS as handheld dominates not just in Japan but internationally.

Wii U on the other hand, I believe Nintendo is going to either develop a new console for this Gen or upgrade Wii U. On Game Theory: Wii U is the new Virtual Boy, Nintendo mentioned that if they flop, their going to make a new one immediately. Like what happen to Virtual Boy. After it flopped, they developed Nintendo 64 immediately.

And really, they still have a lot of money left. Like about Y600,000,000,000. And if they continue to flop through the years, they would be dead around 2050. So, I hope they don't waste this opportunity.

EDIT: OF COURSE, to maintain/increase 3DS's lead is to make good games. For the Wii U, the alternative way to increase their sales is to make more good games. Another way is a price cut.



Top 5 Games of 2013:

1. Grand Theft Auto V - 9/10

2. The Last of Us - 9/10

3. BioShock Infinite - 9/10

4. Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 9/10

5. Injustice: Gods Among Us - 8/10

 

Top 5 Flopped Games of 2013:

1. Aliens: Colonial Marines - 4/10

2. Call of Duty: Ghosts - 7/10

3. Dead Island: Riptide - 7/10

4. Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 ReMIX- 7/10

5. Dead Space 3 - 7/10

~God of War: Ascension ALMOST Made it to the list.

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Soundwave said:
seiya19 said:
Fusioncode said:
The GBA had a 3 year lifecycle

No, it didn't. It was released in 2001 and discontinued between 2006-2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_boy_advance

And Nintendo was still publishing games in 2006, like Pokémon Mystery Dungeon, Drill Dozer, and Mother 3. They even published Final Fantasy VI Advance for the West in 2007.

And there's no reason why Nintendo can't continue making the odd 3DS game through 2016/2017/even 2018 if they want to, even if they release another portable in say 2015. 

No, of course not. In fact, they also released Pokémon Black/White 2 and Conquest for DS in 2012, more than a year after 3DS release. The lifecycle of a platform is indeed not directly tied to the release of its successor. Still, it does have an obvious effect on its market and support, and I don't see any reason not to give 3DS at least 5 years without it. An announcement in E3 2015 and release in February 2016 would be exactly that, and that would be the earliest I would expect it to come (which would be sooner than DS to 3DS). And if they end up going for a "dual" platform as some speculate, I definitely see it being at least a year later than that.

Also, people seem to forget that DS was originally meant to be a "third pillar" in Nintendo's hardware lineup, not a successor to GBA, so that's something to take into account here...



The 3DS was actually supposed to come out for holiday 2010, they just didn't have games finished for it (surprise, surprise).

Nintendo needs a new money maker, they can't rely on a declining 3DS to carry the entire company and the Wii U might as well be a dead corpse that's dragging everything down with it.

That's why I think the economics of it just make sense.

Also I don't think Nintendo has the time you guys think they do, they need to answer the rise of the smartphone/tablet, in the same way the DS was pushed to market to provide an answer to the PSP. Every single day Nintendo is losing kids to the tablet/phone revolution, milking the 3DS as their only portable platform as 2014 and 2015 goes on is only going to make them looking increasingly outdated and out of touch with what's happening in the market place.

I don't think they have a choice really. Honestly the Vita will probably soon start outselling the 3DS on a weekly basis in Japan too, so there's that as well. The system is being hit hard by YoY declines there. I suspect you may see a 3DSi this spring/summer (model revision) starting with Japan first, then a new portable entirely in fall of 2015, one that's capable of handling ports of Wii U games. 



Mnementh said:

You know Nintendo is advertising the Online features of WiiU and Nintendo Network is for free... So that basically invalidates the last two points. Third party on board was communicated and executed at launch of the WiiU - it got a lot of third party titles. Games targetted at them - very subjective, but ask yourself to who are Bayonetta 2 and X are targetted? Leaves power - a very subjective point and never really important in the past.

Reality is - games are releasing on WiiU very slow. The launch games were delayed and released in part a year after launch. That is the problem. As long as the HD-development isn't fixed, a successor would see the same problem.


The online infrastructure and environment/games are very different between the PS4 and WiiU. That said I do agree that game releases are too few and far beyween. Until Kart I personally have no incentive to turn the device on.



I predict that the Wii U will sell a total of 18 million units in its lifetime. 

The NX will be a 900p machine

my guess is 2016



Dulfite said:
kirby007 said:
My guess from the LTD Gen 8 prediction was that in 2016 Nintendo will release the Nintendo Unity Tablet System.


NUTS? Seriously?

The name may be a bit dumb, but it's NUT a  bad concept for a video game system if you think about it!



                
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