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Forums - Gaming Discussion - My prediction; Xbox ONE will finish last this Gen.

shikamaru317 said:
Highly unlikely considering the large amount of 3rd party support the Xbox One is getting compared to the Wii U.

Who cares... it's the SAME third party support the PS4 has. What matters are exclusives and with the PS4 dominating this generation it'll be the console that best contrasts the PS4 that will matter. The Xbox One is basically a PS4 that lacks Playstation exclusives, the Wii U however is completely different. Xbox One is PS4-lite, and PS4-lite cannot compete with Wii U when the PS4 is also out at the same time, and it's cheaper.

If it was Xbox One vs. Wii U, the Wii U would lose hands down, but it's not, it's Xbox One vs. Wii U all whilst under the shadow of the PS4, and that shadow destroys the Xbox One.



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Its hard to say at this time, but I can see the WiiU picking up in sales, who knows.



MoHasanie said:
Not gonna happen. MS won't let the X1 fail like that. If sales are constantly at WiiU levels then they will drop the price by at least $100.

Or not.

 

Making money is much more important than having the biggest install base. They'd have to calculate the risk verse reward. Having a poorly selling system making money per sale is better than an ok selling system losing $50 every time it's bought.



JoeTheBro said:
MoHasanie said:
Not gonna happen. MS won't let the X1 fail like that. If sales are constantly at WiiU levels then they will drop the price by at least $100.

Or not.

 

Making money is much more important than having the biggest install base. They'd have to calculate the risk verse reward. Having a poorly selling system making money per sale is better than an ok selling system losing $50 every time it's bought.

True, but dropping the Kinect or having a discless console will lower the loss made by doing that. Also software can make up for the loss. 



    

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Like I have said in the past, a prediction based on nothing is pointless. Would u care to explain ur reasoning?



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MoHasanie said:
JoeTheBro said:
MoHasanie said:
Not gonna happen. MS won't let the X1 fail like that. If sales are constantly at WiiU levels then they will drop the price by at least $100.

Or not.

 

Making money is much more important than having the biggest install base. They'd have to calculate the risk verse reward. Having a poorly selling system making money per sale is better than an ok selling system losing $50 every time it's bought.

True, but dropping the Kinect or having a discless console will lower the loss made by doing that. Also software can make up for the loss. 

I don't think they can drop Kinect or change hardware anytime soon. They already have contracts in place to manufacture a lot of these units, so making changes and storing the old systems would be pretty costly.



Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:

PS4>3DS>Wii U>X1>Vita

No way in Steve Ballmer's Sweaty Armpits will X1 be last


I meant lastin Home Consoles, not last in general. So I pretty much agree with your post.

But I see both the 3DS & PS4 selling less then the DS & PS3, so I would still put the 3DS > PS4, but everything else like you have it.



Nah, we're going back to the 6th gen, only with slightly different proportions. Last chance for Wii U is getting to that casual friendly price range and all those Wii casuals suddenly realising they actually want HD casual experiences. But I don't think that will happen.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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The Wii U is going to get decimated this gen. I am sorry. The Wii U is coming in third and I don't know how you came up to this conclusion and still ended up being in the right mind.



shikamaru317 said:
TornadoCreator said:
shikamaru317 said:
Highly unlikely considering the large amount of 3rd party support the Xbox One is getting compared to the Wii U.

Who cares... it's the SAME third party support the PS4 has. What matters are exclusives and with the PS4 dominating this generation it'll be the console that best contrasts the PS4 that will matter. The Xbox One is basically a PS4 that lacks Playstation exclusives, the Wii U however is completely different. Xbox One is PS4-lite, and PS4-lite cannot compete with Wii U when the PS4 is also out at the same time, and it's cheaper.

If it was Xbox One vs. Wii U, the Wii U would lose hands down, but it's not, it's Xbox One vs. Wii U all whilst under the shadow of the PS4, and that shadow destroys the Xbox One.

So you think just because those same 3rd party games are available on the PS4 they won't sell at all on X1? Most multiplatform games will see at least 30% of their sales on Xbox One, compared to about 45% on PS4 and 25% on PC. And who ever said the Xbox One doesn't have it's own exclusives, they've already announced several anticipated exclusives, and they're building up their first party even as we speak. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft has more than enough expendable money to pay for 3rd party exclusives.

Yeah, but it won't happen that way. If current trends continue we'll have a Microsoft that doesn't care enough to fish for 3rd part exclusives and developers won't want to leave PS4 as that'll be where the sales lay; some genres like platformers and JRPGs are going to be non-existent on XBO. Having expendable money isn't enough, they have to be willing to actually spend it. Remember, the people who would pick the XBO over the PS4 already have, now the people left still to buy are the cautious and casual gamers. The cautious will not want an Xbox based on it's consumer practices, higher expense, lower performance, and lower quality exclusives; while the casuals will be more attracted to Sony with it's higher number of platformers, indie games and the like.

The problem is, it's so easy for people to judge based on USA, and the internet seems very good at that. As a non-American I'm very aware of how the US perspective is the default in many cases. In gaming it's a massive skew. Amongst my friends in UK/Netherlands there's little call for Xbox. I'm a member of a large games club and the same is true across the board for them. The 3DS is insanely popular more than half the club carry them around with them, the PS3 is ubiquitous and is the default game system, a decent percentage of people have owed an Xbox 360 but either never play it now or they've had a RROD (we do have one Halo fanboy at our club though), the PS4 is still "under consideration" by most people but only a few have actually bought it so far. There's a fair few PC gamers, though Linux is quite popular amongst our club. The Vita appears every now and then, about half as popular as the 3DS at best. A few people have a Wii U and it's generally well spoken of. There's a scary number of people with iPads, (slightly more common than the Vita sadly). Lastly, I know only one person with an Xbox One... he also owns a PS4 and has more money than sense....

...now, is my experience representative of the entirety of Europe. Hardly. But, I'm a member of a games club here in UK, (which has a few mainland European members, Dutch, German, French. Spanish and one Romanian), and we have a total of about 60+ members at last count. I also know a few other friends outside of my club, so I'm basing it of a fairly large group of varied gamers, from teenage students to parents in their 30's. They're mainly aged 18-35, and the majority are in their late 20's but it's a solid range. I'm quite familiar with Netherlands too, I know 7 Dutch gamers rather well, and talk to them regularly (in person and online) and over there Microsoft basically doesn't exist, some games shops basically stock Sony systems and 3DS and almost nothing for anything else because they just don't sell, they just have a small shelf in the far corner at most.

Microsoft's sales rely on USA. I really don't see XBO working well outside of USA in the long run and that means it'll probably drop significantly in ratio of multiplat sales as the PS4 sales keep going up.