Nintentacle said:
I know. By huge I assumed he meant more than that. |
As a JRPG fan Ive learnt to think in relitive terms. So huge for most games I like is like 1m =D
ktay95 said:
As a JRPG fan Ive learnt to think in relitive terms. So huge for most games I like is like 1m =D |
Yeah, you're right.
Nintentacle said:
I know. By huge I assumed he meant more than that. |
Oh yes. Lifetime I predict is 7 million.
JoeTheBro said:
|
I don't see it. Infamous isn't as big as Uncharted, and Uncharted 2 & 3 sold around 6 million I think.
Nintentacle said:
I don't see it. Infamous isn't as big as Uncharted, and Uncharted 2 & 3 sold around 6 million I think. |
But this is the PS4, and launch games have inflaited sales. The first resistance almost reached 4.5 million for example, and again that was on the poor selling ps3.
The last video has inflated views (ads I guess). However the others looks legit. There is definitely a lot of hype for the game, it should be the best-selling game of the franchise easily. I'm buying it at launch to contribute!
I'm thinking it easily outsells Infamous 1 and 2 simply by virtue of being the first real big PS4 game, but I think it tops out at 5 million. I could see it eventually being on PS+, which saps some sales.
JoeTheBro said:
But this is the PS4, and launch games have inflaited sales. The first resistance almost reached 4.5 million for example, and again that was on the poor selling ps3. |
That's a good point. I guess you might be right.
I think its a system seller too
| JoeTheBro said: The infmaous gameplay spot currently has 4.6 million views. The live action trailer already has 3 million views. Adding up all its major videos, infamous has about 21 million views. That's a lot!
Now comparing that number to Titanfall is pretty stupid. It's a different channel and different circumstances. Comparing to another PS4 exclusive seems like a much better apples to apples comparison. I'll use Killzone 6.
Killzone's most viewed video on the playstation channel has 3.3 million views, a lot less than infamous. In total, all Killzone videos only have about 5 million views. Infamous is DOMINATING. That's impressive, because Killzone has already sold over 2.1 million copies to consumers. If we break it up to views per video, it's still 1.25 million to 3 million. A direct correlation of views to sales would predict 3-5 million sales for Infamous's early life.
Do views correlate to sales though? Let's look at knack. Its top video has a million views. Total it has about 1 and a half million views or .5 million views per video. Going off VGCHARTZ the game has sold 0.9 million, or 0.6 million without the Japan bundle. Using Knack as the starting point, it shows 4-5.5 / 2.75-3.5 depending on if you include Japan or not. Those numbers are pretty close to what Killzone produces, so I'd take it as ok evidence that views do correlate pretty well with PS4 game sales.
TLDR: Youtube says Infamous will sell about 4 million before the holidays even begin. |
If Youtubes has predictive value for sales then there's got to be correlation data across a large number of games, which includes Titanfall. You can't just take KZ views and then extrapolate directly to inFamous.
There probably is a predictive model that could be created that links pre-launch youtube views and intial sales. But there are probably so many variables and complexities that it would be too difficult to costruct the model. Lots of Youtube views probably means good sales. But that's about as accurate as you can be.
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