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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 ACHIEVED what Wii couldn't (50 + % Marketshare May 2015)

ironmanDX on 25 February 2014

It might hit 50% but it won't keep it. Not long term.



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Seece on 25 February 2014

OT

I can see (end of 2017) this sort of LTD

PS4: 60m
XB1: 48m
WiiU: 20m

So I don't expect PS4 to get 50%, but 45% is achievable. Mainly due to really low WiiU sales.



 

freedquaker on 25 February 2014
mutantsushi said:

Beyond 50% marketshare seems highly likely, I think it's possible to reach that by Oct/Nov this year, certainly close to it. MS can be expected to have some big push at next holiday which might temporarily stop/reverse Sony's marketshare gain, but PS4 sales look tracked to reach 50% or near it by the beginning of holiday season. 60%+ marketshare for this generation seems highly plausible, and either Ninty or MS bailing early for a 'next' gen will just amplify that.


Believe me over 50% is a 95% probability! The reasoning is simple as the following...

The WiiU's market share will range between 10-20% (down from 40% last generation), which brings the total XB1+PS4 market share up to 80-90% range. Now, here, the market share between those two consoles, calculate in any way you like, and I have demonstrated in half a dozen times already will be

XB1 : 24-33% out of 80-90 % => 19-30% range

PS4 : 67-76% out of 80-90 % => 54-67% range

So there is almost no chance that it will be below 50% and I can say, with a 95% confidence that the market share will be over 54% (not only 50%). Just watch this thread to converge those values to those values (for now it's only between XB1 and PS4, but I will later add WiiU as well).

XB1 vs PS4 Cumulative Market Share Watch

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178754&page=1



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Zero999 on 25 February 2014
Seece said:
TheFallen said:


Your gonna split hairs over a week of sales? If it hasn't already it will imminently. Stop being so pedantic.

I already did the math, even with a WiiU 60k boost, PS4 will be 20k ahead. :)

your math also lowballs dk and disconsider the decrease of UK ps4 software, wich indicates less than last week hardware numbers.



TheLegendaryWolf on 25 February 2014
mutantsushi said:
TheLegendaryWolf said:
40%-45% is much more likely.

That's almost certain by next November.  MS and Nintendo will certainly have a big push which may temporarily reverse things, but Sony is very likely to reach such a high point by then, and be in a position to extend it beyond 50% to 60%+ long term.  Either Nintendo/MS bailing early to start a new gen will just lock in Sony's marketshare advantage this-gen.


Wii U and XB1 will keep PS4 from getting that much marketshare. Wii U will shell out a bunch of confirmed exclusives such as Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros U, X, Bayonetta 2, Sonic Boom, and Hyrule Wrriors before the end of the year. XB1 will have Halo 5 this year I believe which will sell quite well.



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Fusioncode on 25 February 2014
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
TheFallen said:


Your gonna split hairs over a week of sales? If it hasn't already it will imminently. Stop being so pedantic.

I already did the math, even with a WiiU 60k boost, PS4 will be 20k ahead. :)

your math also lowballs dk and disconsider the decrease of UK ps4 software, wich indicates less than last week hardware numbers.

Donkey Kong did nothing in Japan, it won't do much in US and Europe either. Maybe a small boost for one week. And PS4 software went down last week because of stock issues in the UK. Probably because they were allocating stock to Japan. Which totally destroyed your prediction by the way. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

TheFallen on 25 February 2014
Seece said:
TheFallen said:
Zero999 said:
Mummelmann said:
Zero999 said:

"with PS4 becoming the 8th gen leader 3 months after launch"

Crystal ball?

and the topic: No.


You don't think the PS4 is the leader now? How much do you actually expect Donkey Kong to push?

if ps4 got 100k on non japan market, wii u just needs 100k +  WW to keep ahead. I don't see why people can't believe dk can't push an extra 60k+ on launch.

regardless, saying ps4 passed the wii u without seeing the numbers is pointless.


Your gonna split hairs over a week of sales? If it hasn't already it will imminently. Stop being so pedantic.

I already did the math, even with a WiiU 60k boost, PS4 will be 20k ahead. :)


Nice. I know your an Xbox guy so I give you props for setting an example people should follow.



Zero999 on 25 February 2014
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
TheFallen said:


Your gonna split hairs over a week of sales? If it hasn't already it will imminently. Stop being so pedantic.

I already did the math, even with a WiiU 60k boost, PS4 will be 20k ahead. :)

your math also lowballs dk and disconsider the decrease of UK ps4 software, wich indicates less than last week hardware numbers.

Donkey Kong did nothing in Japan, it won't do much in US and Europe either. Maybe a small boost for one week. And PS4 software went down last week because of stock issues in the UK. Probably because they were allocating stock to Japan. Which totally destroyed your prediction by the way. 

US preorders alone had double of japan's dk launch. and I'm pretty sure my ps4 software prediction shouldn't be far away.

I'm also talking about this week, uk numbers for fev 22 show a second decrease in a row for ps4 software. 



Fusioncode on 25 February 2014
Zero999 said:
Fusioncode said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
TheFallen said:


Your gonna split hairs over a week of sales? If it hasn't already it will imminently. Stop being so pedantic.

I already did the math, even with a WiiU 60k boost, PS4 will be 20k ahead. :)

your math also lowballs dk and disconsider the decrease of UK ps4 software, wich indicates less than last week hardware numbers.

Donkey Kong did nothing in Japan, it won't do much in US and Europe either. Maybe a small boost for one week. And PS4 software went down last week because of stock issues in the UK. Probably because they were allocating stock to Japan. Which totally destroyed your prediction by the way. 

US preorders alone had double of japan's dk launch. and I'm pretty sure my ps4 software prediction shouldn't be far away.

I'm also talking about this week, uk numbers for fev 22 show a second decrease in a row for ps4 software. 

VGC preorders should always be taken with a grain of salt, now even if the game sells well do you really think it's going to be a big hardware mover? I highly doubt it. I think people are getting tired of platformers on WiiU, this is like the 6th one.

Once again, PS4 stock was low last week in the UK. Only reason is did worse than before. Funny thing is that it still had like 8 titles in the top 40. The PS4 will continue to dominate UK like the 360 did last gen. Donkey Kong ain't changing that. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Seece on 25 February 2014

If PS4 isn't ahead this week, it'll be the week after, this is just silly.

PS4 has taken the lead and will stay in the lead, fact. Anything else is mere wishful thinking.