By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why No PS4 Adjustments Yet? (They've been updated)

Xenostar on 20 February 2014
greenmedic88 said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Can you comprehend the concept that it takes a few days to transport inventory from the factory to distributors and then retail outlets?

Obviously, they're not transported instantaneously into stores and I hope no one is under the impression that factories only spit out inventory every 2-3 days. 

I can comprehend that, yes. Can you comprehend that Sony will have 'shipped' more than the number they say they've sold?

Maybe if you'd bothered to post both numbers displaying the difference you could have convinced me, but you didn't. 

VGC numbers are always subject to adjustments, although with the PS4, they've been accurate enough that they're quoted more often by business and news sources than any other source.

If SCE starts tracking retail sales to consumers accurately (VGC has been establishing their formula for estimates for years), which is something they did not do in the past, then they can save VGC the trouble of tracking retail sales themselves and people like you and me can stop using the site for updates. 

Here you got the quote from the sony report and the sony report linked below, do you believe now?


*1 Number of retail sales to consumers is estimated by SCEI. PS4 sales data in North America and Latin America collected11/15/2013 – 2/8/2014. Europe and Asia collected 11/29/13 – 2/8/2014.

http://scei.co.jp/corporate/release/140218_e.html



Around the Network
JoeTheBro on 20 February 2014
GribbleGrunger said:
JoeTheBro said:
GribbleGrunger said:

But tha makes no sense. It means VGChartz are going to have to bloat PS4 numbers in the next numbers to catch up. It's far better to adjust the small amount required now rather than later.


No that's not what they do. The data for the week ending the 16th will be whatever Brett has calculated. At the same time however he goes back to previous weeks and adds a couple thousand units here and there. It's the same thing they did with NPD. The posted data for the week ending the 8th and updated data for the past few weeks.

But why do that when we have Sony's own figures NOW? That sounds a pretty complicated process when you're only adding around 120,000 - 150,000 units.

Just to make it clear, I think VGChartz has done a pretty good job of calculating the PS4 numbers, I'm just not sure why they don't immediately adjust the figures in accordance with Sony's own figures when they're released.

The cynic would say it's to hide that fact that adjustments are occurring. If the PS4 does 150k for next week but goes up 250k on the front page, hardly anyone notices the difference. If it just bumped up 100k out of the blue, people would start asking why.

Also it's complicated but actually produces accurate results. We want each week past and present to be as accurate as possible. Constantly adjusting them by small amounts is the only way to make that happen. Heck Wii U sales for Jan 2013 went from 282k to 279k a few weeks ago from adjustments. Every little change helps.



Links

Xenostar on 20 February 2014

But yeah to answer the original OP, they usually just do adjustments in the weekly update.



greenmedic88 on 20 February 2014
Xenostar said:
But yeah to answer the original OP, they usually just do adjustments in the weekly update.

It will look like a big week if the numbers tracked for the week following the 8th total about 150k plus whatever corrections are made unless they stagger that difference out over the next few weeks.

Doing incremental adjustments like that might not be the best approach (it would be somewhat deceptive in hiding potential errors) even though the lump sum correction will result in a lot of questions and questioning of VGC methods in general. 

Not sure this is even terribly relevant compared to the numbers that will come in after the Japanese launch. If anything, that week of sales following launch week would be the most obvious place to add adjustments invisibly.



Xenostar on 20 February 2014
greenmedic88 said:
Xenostar said:
But yeah to answer the original OP, they usually just do adjustments in the weekly update.

It will look like a big week if the numbers tracked for the week following the 8th total about 150k plus whatever corrections are made unless they stagger that difference out over the next few weeks.

Doing incremental adjustments like that might not be the best approach (it would be somewhat deceptive in hiding potential errors) even though the lump sum correction will result in a lot of questions and questioning of VGC methods in general. 

Not sure this is even terribly relevant compared to the numbers that will come in after the Japanese launch. If anything, that week of sales following launch week would be the most obvious place to add adjustments invisibly.

They will just adjust it on to previous weeks, they wont just bung it in with this weeks numbers



Around the Network
GribbleGrunger on 20 February 2014
greenmedic88 said:
Xenostar said:
But yeah to answer the original OP, they usually just do adjustments in the weekly update.

It will look like a big week if the numbers tracked for the week following the 8th total about 150k plus whatever corrections are made unless they stagger that difference out over the next few weeks.

Doing incremental adjustments like that might not be the best approach (it would be somewhat deceptive in hiding potential errors) even though the lump sum correction will result in a lot of questions and questioning of VGC methods in general. 

Not sure this is even terribly relevant compared to the numbers that will come in after the Japanese launch. If anything, that week of sales following launch week would be the most obvious place to add adjustments invisibly.

Agreed. It's much better to be honest and admit a mistake than to adjust the numbers secretly, especially when people know that's what is happening. If they add 150,000 next week, we'll get a bloated figure that doesn't represent the truth and if they break that number down into smaller amounts and add it weekly,  ALL of those weeks are going to be bloated (even if it's a small amount)



 

The PS5 Exists. 


GribbleGrunger on 20 February 2014
Xenostar said:
greenmedic88 said:
Xenostar said:
But yeah to answer the original OP, they usually just do adjustments in the weekly update.

It will look like a big week if the numbers tracked for the week following the 8th total about 150k plus whatever corrections are made unless they stagger that difference out over the next few weeks.

Doing incremental adjustments like that might not be the best approach (it would be somewhat deceptive in hiding potential errors) even though the lump sum correction will result in a lot of questions and questioning of VGC methods in general. 

Not sure this is even terribly relevant compared to the numbers that will come in after the Japanese launch. If anything, that week of sales following launch week would be the most obvious place to add adjustments invisibly.

They will just adjust it on to previous weeks, they wont just bung it in with this weeks numbers

But how can you adjust passed weeks and not adjust to overall figure? Whether they do that or not, it still means we'll have to see a boost in sales that don't represent what has really sold for that week or for those weeks.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Xenostar on 20 February 2014
GribbleGrunger said:
Xenostar said:
greenmedic88 said:
Xenostar said:
But yeah to answer the original OP, they usually just do adjustments in the weekly update.

It will look like a big week if the numbers tracked for the week following the 8th total about 150k plus whatever corrections are made unless they stagger that difference out over the next few weeks.

Doing incremental adjustments like that might not be the best approach (it would be somewhat deceptive in hiding potential errors) even though the lump sum correction will result in a lot of questions and questioning of VGC methods in general. 

Not sure this is even terribly relevant compared to the numbers that will come in after the Japanese launch. If anything, that week of sales following launch week would be the most obvious place to add adjustments invisibly.

They will just adjust it on to previous weeks, they wont just bung it in with this weeks numbers

But how can you adjust passed weeks and not adjust to overall figure? Whether they do that or not, it still means we'll have to see a boost in sales that don't represent what has really sold for that week or for those weeks.

They do it all the time, if they find there previous numbers were wrong they adjust them, and the number on the main page just jumps to what it should be. they dont try and add it on in the future, that would just make those numbers wrong as well



Xevross on 20 February 2014

GribbleGrunger said:

But how can you adjust passed weeks and not adjust to overall figure? Whether they do that or not, it still means we'll have to see a boost in sales that don't represent what has really sold for that week or for those weeks.

If Vgchartz adjusts then they add/ take away numbers for many weeks before the latest week and they do this when they release a new week's data. So, for example, if an upwards adjustment of 100k was needed then they may add 20k each to the past 5 weeks and then add the new week of data as normal from their normal tracking. If the next week of data was 160k for example then when they add all those numbers the overall figure will go up by 260k when they release the new weeks numbers, but it doesn't give a boost in sales that don't represent was has really sold because the adjustments are evenly spread on smaller amounts.



http://vizioneck.com/

binary solo on 20 February 2014
GribbleGrunger said:

We have had official numbers for a while now and it stands at 5.3 million, so why is it that the numbers are still short by 110,000, even if you take the numbers to be EXACLY 5.3? Sony have said they're OVER 5.3, so I'm assuming the numbers should really be adjust up by about 150,000.

I'd say the numbers were/are pretty accurate at the moment but surely it makes sense to keep track now and not later.

The official number was "We estimate...over 5.3 million". Now sony could have precise numbers down to the nearest 10 or 100 units sold to consumers but we actually don't know the level of precision. Their estimate could be out by as much as 1 or 2 %. If that the case then the actual number could be under 5.3 million in which case VGC is so close that an adjustment is totally unnecessary.

The only number Sony knows precisely is the number of PS4's they've shipped. Retail sales numbers are estimates no matter who is releasing the information, it's just that some estimates are more likely to be accurate than others.

The VGC number is fine to stay as it is.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix