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Forums - Sony Discussion - Could The Vita Ever Catch The 3DS?

http://www.psxextreme.com/feature/1023.html

Based on the current numbers, this seems to be an absurd question.

Sony is having real difficulty selling the PlayStation Vita, while the Nintendo 3DS, despite recently missing internal projects, is still a hot seller every month. Sure, the PlayStation 4 was the top console in the US in January, even beating out the 3DS, but where was the Vita? I don't think Sony wants you to know.

But just for the sake of argument, what would have to happen for the Vita to eventually catch the 3DS in the sales department? Let's just consider that it's possible (even though it doesn't currently appear feasible). What's the sequence of events that would have to happen, short of Nintendo inexplicably going bankrupt sometime soon? I think it hinges on price and games, and whether or not Nintendo will indeed license out their legendary mascots. If we can play our Mario andZelda games on smartphones and tablets, for instance, that could have an impact on 3DS sales.

The Vita really needs a price drop and a lot more exclusive software. One important thing to remember is that the PSP needed several years before it started to become relevant on the sales charts. It wouldn't be too shocking if the Vita started to have a few good months here and there, especially if the games began to flow and the price was agreeable. Thing is, the Vita is a very capable device, far more technically proficient than the 3DS, so that has to be worth something. It's an obvious edge, if Sony could only market it correctly. And again...games. Needed. Lots of them.

What do you say?



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The 3DS supossedly peaked and it's going to go down in sales every year from here on out. If the Vita gets more games and support I think it can catch up with the 3DS eventually.



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

Can PS2 catch GBA?



What if the Vita has already peaked?

And "the PSP needed several years before it started being relevant on sales charts"?  What the hell?



A new MonHun, a MAJOR exclusive from a popular Japanese franchise, a new hit property that appeals to a younger/more casual market (Animal Crossing type), and probably something from a hot cross-media property. That could make Vita sales jump.

At the same time, of course, the 3DS would have to see a serious decline. Let's say, for instance, that Nintendo pissed off Japanese publishers and that they had all their internal studios working on Wii U games.

Short answer: zero chance.



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Possible.

Sony don't ever have to release a new handheld, the Vita can do everything. If they (and 3rd parties/indies) choose to support the Vita in coming years, sales will surely boom and it becomes swarmed with games whilst also becoming significantly less expensive.

If In 2016 the system is $129 and can stream ps3 games and is receiving a shit ton of exlusives from mid level/indie devs who can't compete in the PS4's space, I think it will eventually outsell the 3DS. Nintendo need another generation to make a handheld which is accessible to indie devs who I think will become hugely important in coming years and to support the full range of games developers want to create. Not to forget that the Japanese developers whom tend to steer clear of home consoles will all adopt the Vita eventually. Whilst Nintendo may struggle to kick of their new handheld, the Vita could still be a competetive system 5 years from now.

Right now every indie title on the Vita is cross-platform, but soon I think they will realise that Vita exclusives mean more hype and lower costs. When the PS4 becomes over saturated, I believe devs will start treating the Vita as its own platform. Sony Needs to facilitate this though with its own, well considered exclusives. I honestly think the Vita will be the rebirth of the AA game.



The Vita has a power advantage that could actually position it to a point where any Nintendo successor to the 3DS, means the Vita is still capable of running that software (so "HDS"/Vita dual format releases could potentially end up being much more common place than 3DS/Vita ones are now). The Vita is also starting to attract Japanese developers who I'm guessing are wanting this extra power to be less constrained by hardware limitations which could help drive sales.

I don't see Vita ever catching 3DS, but I do think it could have a much longer lifespan meaning in the long run, it doesn't look like the utter decimation that 2013 sales comparisons showed.

As for Vita peaking, it may well have done in the West unless Sony do something about it. It looks like it's just starting to wake up in Japan though.



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Only if ps vita was bundled with ps4 with no additional cost.



Only if Nintendo immediately stop making 3DSs and just give up (maybe the doom threads are getting to Iwata) ;)



teigaga said:
Possible.

Really?

Sony don't ever have to release a new handheld, the Vita can do everything.

The PS3 ports it has gotten are often downgraded, the Game Card size is literally worse than a DVD's, despite the system's power, there are constant storage problems between price and a lack of internal storage, and the device is soon going to be outpowered by many mobile devices. The Vita isn't the handheld version of the PS2.

If they (and 3rd parties/indies) choose to support the Vita in coming years, sales will surely boom and it becomes swarmed with games whilst also becoming significantly less expensive.

Why would they do so though? Indies, I can see happening, but the 120+ indie games coming to the Wii U aren't going to make that system outsell the PS4. As for third party devs, the Western ones only really cared about handhelds from 2005 to 2008 or so and the Japanese ones have plenty of other platforms to choose from, including the more popular 3DS's retail and eShop market spaces.


If In 2016 the system is $129 and can stream ps3 and is receiving a shit ton of exlusives from mid level/indie devs who can't compete in the PS4's space, I think it will eventually outsell the 3DS.

If the Vita loses 35% of its price by 2016, you have to assume the 3DS will do the same. That means the 2DS will cost $80 or $90, while the base 3DS still only costs about $110. And why would streaming PS3 games be a big deal 10 years after the system is released? Plus, you're once again assuming that the only platforms are the Vita, 3DS, and PS4. The Wii U is already attracting a lot of indie devs, and mobile devices are still becoming bigger.

Nintendo need another generation to make a handheld which is accessible to indie devs who I think will become hugely important in coming years. Not to forget that the Japanese developers whom tend to steer clear of home consoles will all adopt the Vita eventually.

Nintendo doesn't need a new handheld to be more acessible to indie devs. It needs a few policy changes and a firmware update at most! The 3DS has all the basic things you need for indie games, including ACTUAL INCLUDED STORAGE SPACE. As for Japanese developers, the ones that release their games mainly on handhelds have a fairly minor impact outside of the dwindling Japanese market. Not to mention that the same reasons home consoles are being avoided can also be applied to the Vita more than the 3DS.

Right now every indie title on the Vita is cross-platform, but soon I think they will realise that Vita exclusives mean more hype and lower costs. When the PS4 becomes over saturated, I believe devs will start treating the Vita as its own platform. Sony Needs to facilitate this though.

So you think the PS4 will reach market saturation around 2016, devs will suddenly start caring about the system years after its release, and only the Vita will get cheaper over time.

Okay

Edit: Sorry for being a negative nancy, but I'd say the same to people who think the Wii U will outsell the PS4 lifetime.



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