Digital Downloads Are Not About To Kill Blu-Ray

Duncan Riley

With Toshiba’s announcement that it is to cease manufacture of HD DVD players, the High-Definition format wars are now over. With Blu-Ray left standing, some, such as Rob Beschizza at Wired are now saying that digital downloads will now kill Blu-Ray.

It’s an argument I want to support and many of you reading this will feel is a sound one, but it’s not going to happen anytime shortly. Here’s a few reasons why

Old Habits/ Age Dies Hard
I’m probably in the last generation who will ever remember a world without widespread computer use and internet everywhere. Younger generations (often called the “digital generation”) only know a world where anything can be accessed or downloaded at the click of a mouse button. To paraphrase many a politician, the young people are the future, and the next generation has nearly already abandoned CD’s, and physical media like DVDs and Blu-ray are next. But that doesn’t account for the many others who, as Rob Beschizza points out, already buy DVDs by the millions and will likely buy Blu-Ray now that HD wars are over (and as they did before DVD’s with VHS). Substantial generations have grown up with physical media, and this isn’t about to change tomorrow. Like music downloads though it will start to change, but like music that is going to take at least 5-10 years.

Access (or I want to watch movies on my TV)
I asked my mother the other day why she hadn’t downloaded something (legally of course) after she had purchased the physical media instead. Her response was simply that she didn’t want to watch it on her computer. Although many reading this will never give a second thought to watching video on their computer, there are still people who prefer consuming video on their TV sets. To be fair, HD on a 1080p 40″ TV set provides a better experience that on my 17″ Macbook Pro, although the TV set doesn’t easily come to bed with me.

There are ways of brining digital downloads to TV sets, but none have anywhere near the penetration yet to offer a serious alternative to DVD and Blu-Ray. Apple is now offering HD movie downloads via their Apple TV box, but try and find more than a handful of people who own an Apple TV. Others offer a similar service such as Vudu, and there’s even Microsoft Media Center, and yet none are mainstream. Until such time net or network enabled devices become mainstream, TV and physical media will retain the upper hand.

Broadband limitations
The US internet community cried long and hard when Time Warner announced it was considering capping downloads on its internet plans in January, and yet I’m sure most non-Americans reading about it would have simply said welcome to our reality. The problem going forward is the days of cheap unlimited internet access in the United States may well be coming to an end as more and more download video and use P2P services. The low cost of bandwidth itself was a historical quirk that came about due to the first dot com bubble. That extra remnant capacity is being used now, and the costs of increasing capacity will likely be passed on to consumers. If this means more capped internet plans that immediately puts a constraint on the amount of video that can be downloaded. Outside of the United States this is already the case with capped plans in many countries, restraining potential growth in downloads (simply users will only be able to download so much content.)

Combine this with the need for high speed internet access that isn’t universally available. Digital video will not become dominant where it takes hours, sometimes days to download, when users can simply rent or buy the title on physical media.

Conclusion
As I said in the introduction, I’m all for the supremacy of digital downloads. I own two net enabled TV devices, a Zensonic network DVD player that allows me to stream content from any computer in the house or my NAS drive to my main TV set, and I’ve recently added an Apple TV to my line up. I wouldn’t swap this setup, and yet I’m still in the vast minority. Blu-Ray will likely be the last big/ mainstream physical media technology ever and it will have a strong future. The various factors needed for mainstream digital downloading and viewing will eventually combine to finally kill Blu-Ray (and the domination of all physical media) sometime between 2010 and 2020.

Source: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/02/17/digital-downloads-are-not-about-to-kill-blu-ray/

Well at my older brother's house it has.

I think you have to include PPV in the download category, since they are technically digital downloads. Many people have cable boxes and increasing they are being issued with hard drives. If the author of the article had asked whether their mother would be willing to buy a movie from cable PPV, he might have gotten a completely different response.

I never thought that downloading would kill HD fixed media, but I do see it taking an increasing market share, especially if you include PPV from cable/satellite.

I was downloading a rather large podcast through ITune. (300mb), it took me 3 hours.

In Canada, I also have limited bandwidth per month through Rogers (biggest cable/internet provider in Canada).

For this country, you won't have sustainable Downloading service for next 20 years. What a disgrace to be called a first world nation. *sighs*

What version of hi-speed do you have?

I have hi-speed extreme and I download around 700kb/s which I think is pretty good.

who owns an HDTV and a Blu Ray player but does not have broadband access? I dont think people are really going to think of it as a habit change. We've had PPV for a long time, people are buying more and more dvr's so people are already recording tv on their tv box. And with how fast concepts like netflix caught on proves that people are willing to change their habbits to get a better deal. Personally I would much rather download my movies than go buy them. Price is better, I can get my movie at any time without leaving my couch (never underestimate how lazy us Americans can be), and i never have to worry about late fees. Plus one less box hooked up to the tv the better. The dvr/cablebox/movie center can all be one box which is way more conveinant. Also consider the digital tv switch in 2009. The switch will force people who dont have cable boxes or tvs with a digital tuner to get a box, so why not get a box that you can use to download movies with? Blu ray probably wont die off but its got BIG competition, digital downloads and of course the giant, DVD. HD DVD was probably the best thing to happen to the future of Blu Ray but buy beating it they screwed themselves. Getting Blu Ray players and movie to a mass market price will take MUCH longer now and will DRASTICALLY hinder its adoption rate.

This is the exact same conversation that I had with my brother. I told him all of these things but he refuses to believe. No one wants to watch a movie on their computer. I mean, most computers are at a desk, with a chair. When I watch movies I'm either laying in bed, or on the couch. (Yes, I am a lazy american). And the whole broadband cap thing will happen too, since it's happening in many other countries, and downloading two to five gig movies will put a serious hurting on your cap. Also, you don't have to leave your couch, but with the DRM, you can't take your movies with you, also, you can only have them for a few days before they are digitally deleted. On top of that, lots of collectors like having the Special edition sets, or box sets, and what would happen to those? Can you watch the whole series of Star Trek in 7 days? While living life? Can you even watch one season of an episode? While you work, go out, sleep, have a life etc? No. Unless some serious changes happen, it will be a long while before digital distribution ever becomes close to the mainstream.

This article makes some fine points against downloads, but it doesn't make any in favor of Blu-Ray.

Specifically, it doesn't tell us how/when it will take over DVD. The transition from VHS to DVD doesn't count, since the advantages of that transition were enormous, while the advantages of Blu-Ray over DVD are minimal.

PPV=Pay per view? you mean pay per view?

thats been out since before DVD was out and that did absolutely NUTHIN to that market. DD (digtal Downloads) wont even damper Blu-ray sells. Only sony can do that with higher prices. DVD is the biggest thing to over come DD are not ever gonna come.....10-15 years at LEAST. blu-ray wins and sony will get billions from it....

I seemed to have missed FishyJoe's comment. That is so insignificant.

How would ppv help when that's been out since VHS? LOL. no need for a longer response than that, since your's wasn't even that thought out.