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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2014 NPD Thread! - PS4: 271k, XBO: 141k, WiiU: 49k

Zucas on 14 February 2014
Fusioncode said:
Zucas said:
Fusioncode said:
Mr Khan said:
trixiemafia86 said:

So Wii U peaked already?

things aren't looking good for Nitty. atleast for now

Eh, 8,000 is basically flat, even if it is a larger percentage at those lower levels. Wii U still has its best games ahead of it, this year specifically.

Compared to last year it has a much stronger library and $50 cheaper with a free game bundled. Yet it's still doing worse YOY? I know it has stronger competition now but it should have at least done better than 49k. I think Nintendo needs to slash the price another $50 or else they'll be completely dead during the 3 month drought. 


Hmm didn't Ninty say Wii U sales increased 16% year over year for January?  Or did I misread that.

You might be thinking of software sales. I'm not sure, I didn't see that number. 

Ah could be.  Let me go shuffle through some articles to find out.  Thx for the help.

EDIT: yep you are right it is software sales.  My mistake.



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Soundwave on 14 February 2014

I really have a bad feeling that DKC is going to bomb or at least fizzle (ala Pikmin 3). Too many platformers (again bad planning) and Nintendo can't sell anything for sh*t outside of the holidays any more. I hope David Wise gets to work on at least one more DKC game. 



Mr Khan on 14 February 2014
Fusioncode said:
Mr Khan said:

Eh, 8,000 is basically flat, even if it is a larger percentage at those lower levels. Wii U still has its best games ahead of it, this year specifically.

Compared to last year it has a much stronger library and $50 cheaper with a free game bundled. Yet it's still doing worse YOY? I know it has stronger competition now but it should have at least done better than 49k. I think Nintendo needs to slash the price another $50 or else they'll be completely dead during the 3 month drought. 

It's obvious that demand for the console is low (take your pick on the exact reason), so it could just be that Nintendo's push for the holidays squeezed out more demand that isn't overflowing into January. That and the Wii U being offered is still basically the same machine, except for the new casual games.

It's obvious that the price is still too high for the value prospect, although Nintendo's just going to have to punt on that for now because there's no point in lowering the price again just to take more losses, not when there aren't any games to sell the product. Probably have another hit after they go through the bump from Mario Kart 8, to gear up for the somewhat more diverse lineup they have for the fall this year that could catch more than just the Mario gamers, as Mario is really all the system has right now from the heavy hitters, 2D and 3D.

Basically you're looking at the same system, still "too expensive", and still largely outside the gaming consciousness. It's a bad position for them to be in, but they've got the cards to at least make things a little better.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

cyberninja45 on 14 February 2014
TheSource said:

Adjusting for the five week month in Jan 07 puts PS3 at about what PS2 did in January 2007, and Wii was doing about 350k if you make Jan 07 four weeks instead of five.

I think the major problem this generation is an upgrade problem. Blu Ray + Better Graphics +Online + Move eventually made PS3 a pretty massive upgrade over PS2, Kinect + Better Online + Better Graphics eventually made X360 a pretty massive upgrade over Xbox, and Motion Controls + Better Online + you know, an extra 1000 retail games in lieu of better graphics eventually made Wii a massive uprgade over GC.

Going from PS3-->PS4, X360-->X1, or Wii-->Wii U is pretty terrible in comparison to upgrading from Xbox, GC, PS2 to 360, Wii, PS3 in their hay day three to six years ago.

I think PS3 / X360 didn't become "better" than their predecessors to any substantial portion of their eventual user base until late 2008. I think for PS3, half the PS2 audience still thinks the PS2 is better than PS3, even seven and a quarter years after launch. For Wii U you have a similar problem, 95% of the Wii audience still doesn't see the point in upgrading to Wii U.


This is the correct answer here.

The sales will most likely start to get worse as the gen goes on also unless something really big happens.



My 3ds friendcode: 5413-0232-9676 (G-cyber)



Soundwave on 14 February 2014
Mr Khan said:
Fusioncode said:
Mr Khan said:
 

Eh, 8,000 is basically flat, even if it is a larger percentage at those lower levels. Wii U still has its best games ahead of it, this year specifically.

Compared to last year it has a much stronger library and $50 cheaper with a free game bundled. Yet it's still doing worse YOY? I know it has stronger competition now but it should have at least done better than 49k. I think Nintendo needs to slash the price another $50 or else they'll be completely dead during the 3 month drought. 

It's obvious that demand for the console is low (take your pick on the exact reason), so it could just be that Nintendo's push for the holidays squeezed out more demand that isn't overflowing into January. That and the Wii U being offered is still basically the same machine, except for the new casual games.

It's obvious that the price is still too high for the value prospect, although Nintendo's just going to have to punt on that for now because there's no point in lowering the price again just to take more losses, not when there aren't any games to sell the product. Probably have another hit after they go through the bump from Mario Kart 8, to gear up for the somewhat more diverse lineup they have for the fall this year that could catch more than just the Mario gamers, as Mario is really all the system has right now from the heavy hitters, 2D and 3D.

Basically you're looking at the same system, still "too expensive", and still largely outside the gaming consciousness. It's a bad position for them to be in, but they've got the cards to at least make things a little better.

They need to ditch that stupid controller honestly, substitute it with a cheaper regular pad and sell the machine for $249.99 at a profit. 

But they are so hung up on hitting the jack pot with gimmicks that I think they refuse to do this because they are going to let everything ride on NFC toys and they can't replace the Wii U tablet for that reason (it's probably integral to their NFC toy line they're hoping to push). 

Unfortunately for games like DKC, Bayonetta, and X ... that totally sucks because they're stuck on a ship sinking faster than the Titanic. 

Rather than heeding basic market fundamentals to sell hardware, Iwata I think has become a little crazed at chasing short cuts/fads and he can't stop now. Nintendo just can't bring themselves to sell a system based on having a steady library of games, solid developer support, outreach to the Western dev community, etc. etc. they're like a baseball hitter who's just wildly swinging at every pitch trying to hit a home run rather than making a simpler play. 



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lucidium on 14 February 2014
Soleron said:
thismeintiel said:
trixiemafia86 said:
tagged

I'm it?  Shit.

Edit: Oh, and there does seem to be a real lack of the same people who were in the Dec thread talking about how MS was going to easily take the US.  By the time Titanfall (the game that's supposed to push One sale HUGE) comes out, the gap will probably be ~500K+ in the PS4's favor, and that's just in the US.  I doubt that one game is going to push the One to close that kind of gap.

Do you remember how this kind of gap happened in 2007? People were saying it was mathematically impossible for the PS3 to catch up. But it did. No one knows how things will look in SEVEN years.

Xbox One will be recieving basically all third party games no matter how badly it sells. This gives room for exclusives, even if they're in like 2017, to allow it to close a gap.

Ps3 recovered because the PlayStation fan base is larger to begin with, it spent its whole life catching up, not just the last year.

There's no two ways about it, Xbox one isn't going to catch up any time soon, or in the long run.



Fusioncode on 14 February 2014
Soundwave said:
Mr Khan said:
Fusioncode said:
Mr Khan said:
 

Eh, 8,000 is basically flat, even if it is a larger percentage at those lower levels. Wii U still has its best games ahead of it, this year specifically.

Compared to last year it has a much stronger library and $50 cheaper with a free game bundled. Yet it's still doing worse YOY? I know it has stronger competition now but it should have at least done better than 49k. I think Nintendo needs to slash the price another $50 or else they'll be completely dead during the 3 month drought. 

It's obvious that demand for the console is low (take your pick on the exact reason), so it could just be that Nintendo's push for the holidays squeezed out more demand that isn't overflowing into January. That and the Wii U being offered is still basically the same machine, except for the new casual games.

It's obvious that the price is still too high for the value prospect, although Nintendo's just going to have to punt on that for now because there's no point in lowering the price again just to take more losses, not when there aren't any games to sell the product. Probably have another hit after they go through the bump from Mario Kart 8, to gear up for the somewhat more diverse lineup they have for the fall this year that could catch more than just the Mario gamers, as Mario is really all the system has right now from the heavy hitters, 2D and 3D.

Basically you're looking at the same system, still "too expensive", and still largely outside the gaming consciousness. It's a bad position for them to be in, but they've got the cards to at least make things a little better.

They need to ditch that stupid controller honestly, substitute it with a cheaper regular pad and sell the machine for $249.99 at a profit. 

But they are so hung up on hitting the jack pot with gimmicks that I think they refuse to do this because they are going to let everything ride on NFC toys and they can't replace the Wii U tablet for that reason (it's probably integral to their NFC toy line they're hoping to push). 

Unfortunately for games like DKC, Bayonetta, and X ... that totally sucks because they're stuck on a ship sinking faster than the Titanic. 

A Pokemon NFC line could be big, but Game Freak would probably have to sign off on it. They seem to have a lot of control over the franchise. Part of the reason why there hasn't been a full fledged Pokemon RPG on a Nintendo console yet. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Puppyroach on 14 February 2014

Oh man, those are some terrible January numbers for X1. Crappy numbers overall and my worries for the 8th Gen seems kind off well-founded.



Mr Khan on 14 February 2014
Soundwave said:
Mr Khan said:
Fusioncode said:
Mr Khan said:
 

Eh, 8,000 is basically flat, even if it is a larger percentage at those lower levels. Wii U still has its best games ahead of it, this year specifically.

Compared to last year it has a much stronger library and $50 cheaper with a free game bundled. Yet it's still doing worse YOY? I know it has stronger competition now but it should have at least done better than 49k. I think Nintendo needs to slash the price another $50 or else they'll be completely dead during the 3 month drought. 

It's obvious that demand for the console is low (take your pick on the exact reason), so it could just be that Nintendo's push for the holidays squeezed out more demand that isn't overflowing into January. That and the Wii U being offered is still basically the same machine, except for the new casual games.

It's obvious that the price is still too high for the value prospect, although Nintendo's just going to have to punt on that for now because there's no point in lowering the price again just to take more losses, not when there aren't any games to sell the product. Probably have another hit after they go through the bump from Mario Kart 8, to gear up for the somewhat more diverse lineup they have for the fall this year that could catch more than just the Mario gamers, as Mario is really all the system has right now from the heavy hitters, 2D and 3D.

Basically you're looking at the same system, still "too expensive", and still largely outside the gaming consciousness. It's a bad position for them to be in, but they've got the cards to at least make things a little better.

They need to ditch that stupid controller honestly, substitute it with a cheaper regular pad and sell the machine for $249.99 at a profit. 

But they are so hung up on hitting the jack pot with gimmicks that I think they refuse to do this because they are going to let everything ride on NFC toys and they can't replace the Wii U tablet for that reason (it's probably integral to their NFC toy line they're hoping to push). 

Unfortunately for games like DKC, Bayonetta, and X ... that totally sucks because they're stuck on a ship sinking faster than the Titanic. 

DK will take a hit, sure, but Bayonetta and especially X are of limited but inelastic appeal anyway. Bayonetta will sell less overall, but sell more of that share outside of the bargain bin, so the math will be harder on real "performance" stuffs. Xenoblade did quite well in a quiet way, and X has more mainstream hype going in, so could very well outperform it, even on the 10x smaller Wii U base.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Soundwave on 14 February 2014
Mr Khan said:
Soundwave said:
Mr Khan said:
Fusioncode said:
Mr Khan said:
 

Eh, 8,000 is basically flat, even if it is a larger percentage at those lower levels. Wii U still has its best games ahead of it, this year specifically.

Compared to last year it has a much stronger library and $50 cheaper with a free game bundled. Yet it's still doing worse YOY? I know it has stronger competition now but it should have at least done better than 49k. I think Nintendo needs to slash the price another $50 or else they'll be completely dead during the 3 month drought. 

It's obvious that demand for the console is low (take your pick on the exact reason), so it could just be that Nintendo's push for the holidays squeezed out more demand that isn't overflowing into January. That and the Wii U being offered is still basically the same machine, except for the new casual games.

It's obvious that the price is still too high for the value prospect, although Nintendo's just going to have to punt on that for now because there's no point in lowering the price again just to take more losses, not when there aren't any games to sell the product. Probably have another hit after they go through the bump from Mario Kart 8, to gear up for the somewhat more diverse lineup they have for the fall this year that could catch more than just the Mario gamers, as Mario is really all the system has right now from the heavy hitters, 2D and 3D.

Basically you're looking at the same system, still "too expensive", and still largely outside the gaming consciousness. It's a bad position for them to be in, but they've got the cards to at least make things a little better.

They need to ditch that stupid controller honestly, substitute it with a cheaper regular pad and sell the machine for $249.99 at a profit. 

But they are so hung up on hitting the jack pot with gimmicks that I think they refuse to do this because they are going to let everything ride on NFC toys and they can't replace the Wii U tablet for that reason (it's probably integral to their NFC toy line they're hoping to push). 

Unfortunately for games like DKC, Bayonetta, and X ... that totally sucks because they're stuck on a ship sinking faster than the Titanic. 

DK will take a hit, sure, but Bayonetta and especially X are of limited but inelastic appeal anyway. Bayonetta will sell less overall, but sell more of that share outside of the bargain bin, so the math will be harder on real "performance" stuffs. Xenoblade did quite well in a quiet way, and X has more mainstream hype going in, so could very well outperform it, even on the 10x smaller Wii U base.


I think all three of those games are going to bomb sadly (relative to expectations for each). Nothing really sells on the Wii U outside of Mario and Nintendo has to push like crazy during the holidays (the only time of year they actually sell anything) to even get that. DKC/X/Bayo 2 are being sent to die, make no mistake about it. I feel bad for the developers.