In a recent thread (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178124&page=1#) quite a bit of people seem to be expecting this generation to out perform last generation. I'm here to say that this is not only wrong, but not possible.

Last generation the three home consoles sold ~262 Million consoles cumulatively, according to VGC. PS3/360 sold ~80 Million and the Wii sold ~100 Million. This generation, the Wii U is destined to sell less than 25 Million, the XBO looks to sell no more than 80 Million, and the PS4 at most to sell as well as the PS2*. When adding these up, you get ~255 Million. However, that's the utmost max for PS4 and Wii U. 

Look at the numbers, look at the trends. Last generation was an outlier. This generation looks to be more like Generation 6 than 7. The gaming industry isn't going up, but down in comparison.

*Unrealistic.

maybe yes, maybe not

I think you are right. I have to admit defeat. If Xbox One can't get the casuals over to Kinect, then we will see a decrease but if Kinect inspires something that we have not seen yet, then maybe both HD twins will sell over 110 million a piece. Leaving Wii U to make up 35 million units or less if HD twins can put some good number between the 2.

Also depends how long this gen is.
I can see Xbox Pushing Directv or someone, to give a xbox one with sign up. This would be big.

I would also like to point out that Handhelds are also on a downtrend. This is a very safe prediction considering these two have been on the market for awhile now and are showing no chance of outshining their predecessors.

Completely agree. I doubt any of the 8th gen consoles will reach the ceilings you've outlined here, and the seventh gen consoles have a little life in them yet.

Basically the console market has failed to retain the expanded audience brought in by the 7th gen, and is therefore destined for decline. Expect more upmarket retreat as mobile devices cut off the growth of dedicated gaming hardware, pending some real innovation in this sector.

I seriously doubt we will see such an equal amount of consoles sold between MS and Sony as we did last generation. Sony's PS4 is definitely going to be the tentpole of this generation, it'll be the biggest seller. 

Hmm... that reminds me of... the 6th generation! PS2 was the tentpole there as well.

If it weren't for the Wii's unexepected success (it was a fad) - then last gen would've sold less than 6th gen. You're also forgetting that some 40 mil PS2's were sold after the launch of 7th gen -- that number should be 215 mil for a fair comparison.

But yes, this gen will sell less than the last.

So, there is still people who think the opposite? Unless some console calls the attention of the casual market, its inevitable.

Why do you say the PS4 at most to sell as well as PS2? The PS4 has shattered every single PS2 record so far. Why is it somehow impossible for PS4 to surpass it? Sony is doing everything they did right with the PS2 this time around and then some. With strong continued (which every PS console has had) support and a good amount of time, the PS4 will go far.

XBO 65 mill, PS4 85 mill, WiiU 20 mill