|binary solo said:
PS4 will not outsell PS3 lifetime. Growth in the console market is a myth, it's gonna shrink this gen.
And you're basing this on what exactly? Historical precedent suggests you're wrong, and that console gaming has become ever more mainstream over time, at least in America and Europe (in Japan the market has remained stagnant at best over the decades). Even if the Wii U's lackluster sales result in lower total hardware unit sales this generation, I still think demand is sufficient to propel combined PS4 & XBO sales well ahead of combined PS3 and 360 sales, and that the PS4 will be the overall global market leader due to the majority of Xbox sales being concentrated in America. I don't think we've seen the last 100+ million seller in the console market. If you're one of those people that think most gamers are going to completely abandon console gaming just to play dinky little games like Candy Crush, well, to me that's like saying that people are going to abandon Ford, GM, and Toyota for Huffy and Schwinn.
And the 7th gen pretty much broke all historical precedent. There's never been as fragmented a video gaming market than the one we're getting into now.
When you take out Wii's Blue Ocean (probably 50% of Wii's sales), which was largely a one generation wonder as evidenced by Wii U's dismal Gamecube-like sales, the 7th gen looks a lot like the 6th gen. 6th Gen was not far off 200 million total (albeit needing PS2 to sell well into the 7th gen to get there). 50 Million Wii's + 85 Million PS3s + 85 Million 360s = 220 million. That's about the size of the pie that PS4boneU will be fighting over.
OK PS4 may outsell PS3, but that will be at the expense of Xb one selling very poorly by comparison to 360. It won;t be because there's significant over all growth in the console market.
Hand held consoles are shrinking, and while they do more directly compete against mobile phone/tablet/iPod, don't think for a minute that mobile and tablet gaming isn't going to also affect home consoles. it will.
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