That's purely subjective.  You can say the same thing about every other exclusive out there.  Some people will like an exclusive, some won't.  And for some people, we'll never know the truth with the console-war bias going around.  

Around August if nothing changes but if Mario Cart boosts sales December.

At current pace XB1 will equal Wii U at around 8 Million near end of 2014, and PS4 will be near 16 Million or XB1 + Wii U combined.

Halo 5 is not coming this year.

Well Wii U still has almost a 2.3 million lead and for the first 3 weeks of the year Xbox One has averaged about 40k higher that Wii U per week. At this rate it would take over a year to surpass Wii U. Of course there are a ton of variables that could change this. There is Titanfall that has alot of hype, launching in many more countries, possibly a price drop to $400. But at the same time Wii U has some games with system selling potential, a potential price cut of its own later in the year or maybe the NFC game they show at E3 will be huge. Overall ill say Xbox One outsells Wii U in 2014 but Wii U will still have a slight lead going into next year.

It won't because the x1 will bomb in Japan.and wiiu will out sell it there 20 to1

I'd say by the last quarter of this year.

After a price and drop or Halo 5

Holiday season seems likely. MS is gearing up for a big Halo push, they've been teasing lots of new upcoming projects, and we have to sort of wait and see what kind of effect a game like Titanfall will have.

I don't see the Xbox One outselling the Wii U anytime soon. The way I see it, it'll probably dip below the Wii U in terms of weekly sales.