According to Nintendo, the Nintendo 3DS ended 2013 with total sales of 42.74 million units.  They also reported that Pokemon XY sold 11.61 million units by the end of 2013.  Using these numbers, the attach rate of Pokemon XY is 27.16%.  

According to VGChartz, in the week ending on January 25, 2014, Pokemon XY sold 70,245 units.  In this same time, the 3DS sold 134,129 units.  It has been like this for the whole month, that it, Pokemon XY sold weekly over 50% the numbers of weekly 3DS sales.  Therefore, the attach rate is still growing.  

So, my question to the forum is do you think that Pokemon XY will ever reach a 30% peak attach rate to the 3DS?  What about a third?  Share your reasoning, but please keep this thread focused on the sales.

P.S.  We are discussing peak attach rates.  The attach rates will certainly drop quickly once the next main series Pokemon game is announced or released.

11.61mil isnt all sold (shipped). Its about 11mil (as of dec 31st). I dont think it'll ever be 30%, but 25% is good enough

tbone51 said: 11.61mil isnt all sold (shipped). Its about 11mil (as of dec 31st). I dont think it'll ever be 30%, but 25% is good enough

SOld t-bone. They talked about digital as well, so this number must be sold not shipped

I don't see that happening.

The 3DS is currently at 42.69 million sold. If Pokemon were to have a 30% attachment rate today, it would need to have sold 12.81 million.

Instead, it is at somewhere in the region of 11-11.5 million. As such, it will need to sell 30% of the 3DS, plus 1.3-1.8 million.

Let's have a look at what the situation is likely to be at the end of 2014. The 3DS is likely to sell in the region of 15 million, putting its total at 58 million. Then, Pokemon X/Y will need to have sold 17.4 million, or a total of 7.4 million in 2014. This is incredibly unlikely.

The chances of Pokemon X/Y reaching it earlier than the end of 2014 aren't much greater. If it kept a steady 70,000 for the next 26 weeks (which is incredibly optimistic), it would be at just shy of 13-13.5 million. At the high end (13.5 million) the 3DS would need to be as low as 45 million. That would require the 3DS to only have sold 2.79 million, a 33% drop from 4.176 million in the same period in 2013.

It won't meet it after 2014, either, because it's very unlikely that it will manage to keep at selling 30% of the 3DS after over a year on the market. Even the DS evergreens were far away from that, never managing to get far into the 20%s for a full year.

I think it's safe to say Pokemon X/Y won't reach a 30% attach rate.

EricFabian said: tbone51 said: 11.61mil isnt all sold (shipped). Its about 11mil (as of dec 31st). I dont think it'll ever be 30%, but 25% is good enough SOld t-bone. They talked about digital as well, so this number must be sold not shipped

No, its both. As of dec 31st its about this...

11.61mil Shipped/Digital *Confirmed

250k-400k Digital (Even though XY sold 10mil+ digital sales aren't big as japan itself has less than 100k)

This leaves about 11.2mil-11.3mil retail copies shipped. No way more than 500k+ on store shelves, so retail it sold at least  10.7mil-10.8mil, putting it at about 11mil-11.2mil sold!!!!

Don't forget digital!!!

tbone51 said: 11.61mil isnt all sold (shipped). Its about 11mil (as of dec 31st). I dont think it'll ever be 30%, but 25% is good enough

Yes, I am aware.  However, Nintendo uses the term "seller" in their report, and I don't question the validity of sources (assuming they are at least somewhat reputable).  I just provide who said it and what they said.  

I see it as a possibility, but a slim one. It'll be impressive though, no doubt about it.

Based on the poll, I calculated the average peak attach rate people think it will reach to be 32.44%*. I find it interesting how the poll answers are far more optimistic than the thread replies. I wonder why.

*Note: "37% or higher" was counted as 37%.