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Forums - Sales Discussion - Michael Pachter predicts PS3 will win this round of console wars

Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.



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I just don't see how this will happen, short of Blu-ray becoming the dominant format, overtaking DVD in sales, and only if PS3 is one of the cheapest Blu-ray players on the market at that time. Otherwise there is no advantage to the PS3 over the 360, since they share mostly the same game library



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

HappySqurriel said:
Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.

 

lol you cant be serious.  Even Nintendo fanboys should by now have accepted the fact that the reason for N64 failure was the dumb decision to use cartridges, Nintendos greed = cartridges = no 3rd party support = N64 failure .  While PS2 games stand toe to toe with anything on xbox or GC, no sane person can say the same about wii games and PS3 or 360 games. 

Why even buy a wii if a PS2 is half the price and has same quality games ? wont there be more people willing to spend $49 on a PS2 when $99 on a wii if its all about price ?

 

 

 

 



he's right; but that is easy to guess.....



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Blue3 said:
HappySqurriel said:
Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.

 

lol you cant be serious.  Even Nintendo fanboys should by now have accepted the fact that the reason for N64 failure was the dumb decision to use cartridges, Nintendos greed = cartridges = no 3rd party support = N64 failure .  While PS2 games stand toe to toe with anything on xbox or GC, no sane person can say the same about wii games and PS3 or 360 games. 

Why even buy a wii if a PS2 is half the price and has same quality games ? wont there be more people willing to spend $49 on a PS2 when $99 on a wii if its all about price ?

 

 

 

 


Because Wii is more accessible than a PS2



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Do analysts do anything else other than getting paid for making up this crap?



I have to agree with HappySqurrie!!


This is a price war!

Everyone can afford a Wii (even if they can't get hold of one) and it appeals to a bigger customer base.

 PS3 certainly has a huge fanbase from PS2 owners wanting to upgrade but with its current price and lack of games its gonna struggle.  I dont expect to see a price drop for a while,  cheaper manufacturing costs will help Sony loose less money and a price cut could be here by end of the year in time for xmas but I would'nt be suprised if it didnt come for another 6 months after that!!

This is also a format war.

Betamax was far superior to VHS but look what happened.

Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD could go the same way (I would champion Blu-Ray over HD-DVD basically because it has more storage capacity)

But what is the difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD?  Both formats will play films in the SAME 1080p resolution with uncompressed 5.1 sound (lets not niggle over compression formats etc) the point is they are the same!! There is no difference!!  Its a silly war!!

Betamax and VHS had big quality / resolution differences, VHS was inferior but the point is that there was a clear difference between the formats so consumers knew what they were getting, there was a clear choice.  Same with consoles Wii works on any TV and is affordablebut to take advantage of PS3/XBOX 360 you need to spend hundreds or thousands upgrading your TV for HD and buying a new surround processor for true HD surround sound etc.

And who wants a 1st generation Blu-Ray / HD-DVD drive NOT ME!! 

 There is also much boasting of Blu-Ray software sales trampling HD-DVD but hardware sales are much closer.

 I predict a draw/stalemate dual players will be the best choice!! 

 Console wars will become a more even playground, I dont know who will win outright, the point is the lead of victorous side will be significantly less than what Sony has had with its last two consoles.



Blue3 said:

 

Why even buy a wii if a PS2 is half the price and has same quality games ? wont there be more people willing to spend $49 on a PS2 when $99 on a wii if its all about price ?

 

 

 

 


Everyone already has a PS2, it's old, it doesn't have motion controls, and it doesn't play Nintendo games. 



Wii Code 8761-5941-4718-0078 

Blue3 said:
HappySqurriel said:
Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.

 

lol you cant be serious.  Even Nintendo fanboys should by now have accepted the fact that the reason for N64 failure was the dumb decision to use cartridges, Nintendos greed = cartridges = no 3rd party support = N64 failure .  While PS2 games stand toe to toe with anything on xbox or GC, no sane person can say the same about wii games and PS3 or 360 games. 

Why even buy a wii if a PS2 is half the price and has same quality games ? wont there be more people willing to spend $49 on a PS2 when $99 on a wii if its all about price ?

Award for missing the point entirely.  Of course there are reasons a weaker system might last longer than a more powerful one.  There are very good reasons why the Wii will continue to outsell the 360 and PS3 throughout this generation.  The biggest and most obvious one is as Happy Squirrel mentions, price.  The 360 and PS3 will have a very hard time ever coming close to the Wii in price or even getting to a mass market price to begin with.  Another is 3rd party support.  The N64 saw it jump ship quicker, prior to launch, since the advantages of CD's over cartridges was huge.  The PS3 is seeing it jump ship slower because it's a reflection of the post launch sales gap.  Should that conintue to grow as it is 3rd party support will move ever more greatly to the Wii.  A bunch of coulds there but that's why you can't say the Wii won't have a short life just because of graphics.

I don't know why anyone would put any trust in these "analysts".  6 months ago they were saying the PS3 would crush the competition and continue Sony's reign at the top, then 3 months ago after playing Wii Sports with their parents they decide the Wii will win barely, now they are saying the PS3 will win barely.  I'm sure they'll give us an accurate analysis of who will win the console wars, in about 4 years or so.

Just a quick point about BluRay, assuming it wins I don't see how it will help the PS3.  There are already better and cheaper BluRay players on the market than the PS3.  The price advantage of the stand alone players will only grow over the years.



Blu Ray and HD-DVD will both lose to DOWNLOADABLE MOVIES!!!



"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks