Locked: Michael Pachter predicts PS3 will win this round of console wars

Forums - Sales Discussion - Michael Pachter predicts PS3 will win this round of console wars

Keep in mind that he made that prediction yesterday, not last year...  Strange...  To be honest I have no faith in him.


From the article: 

"We expect the dominant console at the end of the next cycle to be the PS3, primarily due to our assessment that Sony will win the high-definition DVD format war," Pachter said.

However, Pachter doesn't expect that "dominance" to be especially convincing. Through 2011, he projects that the PS3 will have sold 73.7 million units worldwide, edging out the Wii's 72.4 million systems. Pachter has the Xbox 360 finishing third among the consoles with 54 million sold worldwide. But in this round of console wars, there may not be a loser.

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3 years ago Pachter used to say that PSP will crush Ipod. Seriously.


Is losing over half your market share really winning?

Its possible but consider that Analysts initially predicted the PSP to dominate against the Nintendo DS, they then predicted the PSP to "come back" and win beginning in 2007, now I don't think anyone expects the PSP to even challenge the DS anymore ...

With the Wii Analysts initially predicted the PS3 to dominate and now they're predicting a comeback for the PS3 ...

I'm not sure we can take Pacter or any other anylst that seriously right now. It's early in the console cycle and no one has a crystal ball. I do agree with him that the 360 will come in last place so long as Blue Ray wins the format war. And if you read the article he does contend it would be a disaster for Sony if HD-DVD won. I think he's probably also right in saying the Wii will have a dominant period of a few years before subsiding. In the end though you really can't predict what any of these three will be positioned five years from now. Honestly combined 200 million of the big three will be sold by 2011? I really don't know about that.

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Yeah, if the analysts were right in the first place there would be no PS3 comeback because the Wii would not be selling well right now. The DS would be struggling against the PSP as well.

FishyJoe said:
Is losing over half your market share really winning?

Exactly what I was thinking Joe.  I still don't even believe they'll have a 36% market share even, but even if they do, that's NOT good news for Sony.

The PS3 needs a price drop and Great games not FPS that is dominated by Xbox360 but some RPG's and they meybe could compete whit Nintendo in Japan but nothing has been decided yet Nintendo has clearly won the first round and will possible win the second too but if the lead is to big I can't see PS3 or Xbox360 win

My dog is way beyond my ranking list than you.


Din Apekatt  

Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

Why does anyone pay attention to anything Pachter says? The guys is always off base. Seriously he is almost always wrong, their are forum posters in the prediction thread that are far more accurate than this guy. Heck, I think The Source should have his job.