All numbers in millions as of the date of this thread.
Smash Series
Game (year launched) | Game LTD | Console | Console LTD | Game to Console ratio |
Super Smash Bros (1999) | 5.55 | N64 | 32.93 | 17% |
Super Smash Bros Melee (2001) | 7.07 | Gamecube | 21.74 | 33% |
Super Smash Bros Wii (2008) | 12.04 | Wii | 101 | 12% |
Uncharted Series
Game (year launched) |
Game LTD |
Console |
Console LTD |
Game to Console ratio |
Uncharted (2007) | 4.69 | PS3 | 82.45 | 6% |
Uncharted 2 (2009) | 6.33 | PS3 | 82.45 | 8% |
Uncharted 3 (2011) | 6.26 | PS3 | 82.45 |
8% |
Uncharted: Golden Abyss (2011) | 1.13 | PSV | 7.39 | 15% |
What you should get from the above data is:
- SSB has a larger following within the respective company's fan base. (higher % ratio)
- SSB has increased its LTD at every iteration
- Uncharted has peaked/flatened out and not gained new users at each iteration
With that you can assume that Uncharted as a maximum sales potential of around 6m units. Not bad at all but a very good assumption.
However, even at very low console sales of the Gamecube, a level that Wii U is fully capable of reaching, SSB sold over 7m.
Additional facts to consider.
PS4 is selling at a much better rate than PS3 and its arguable that it will finish with a great LRD. However, if userbase size was all that was needed, then U3 would be greater than U2 vs nearly identical. Afterall, PS3 has enjoyed a solid rate of sales in its later years. So you can't guarantee that a 100m+ PS4 user base would have any significant increase in Uncharted series sales.
As mentioned above, alternatively the lower userbase Wii U will have can't guarantee it couldn't reach the 12m level of Wii. After all, GC sold 10m less than N64, yet GC's SSB title outsold its predecessor by over 50%.
There is the issue with SSB4 being on two Nintendo consoles this time around. Granted they are not identical games. 3DS version will not have all of the same features and definitely worse graphics. Graphics in this case will have an impact as SSB is clearly a more "core" oriented title. Additionally, the Wii U's online structure is better fitting a fighting game and that will be a big seller for this title.
This is actually a pretty close comparison of premier first party titles. In the end however, I think SSB4 will outsell U4 even when only considering Wii U sales purely from the point of view that it greatly increases its userbase with every iteration. On Wii U alone it will be less than Wii, but combined with 3DS it will be greater.
Superchunk guestimate:
SSB4 - Wii U = 8m
Uncharted 4 = 6.5m