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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: WiiU won't hit 6m by E3.

Seece on 29 January 2014

Nintendo financials release today and it shows WiiU at 5.86m shipped (VGC shows around 5.3m sold end of 2013, so 500k~ on shelves.)

Nintendo have forecast 390k for Q1, exactly same as last year. If they hit this, it would put lifetime shipments end of march at 6.25m. The following Q they shipped 160k.

Of course there is Mario kart to consider, but we're going into February without a release date ... surely it's getting less and less likely it'll release before E3? Which is early June.

Sales won't get an uptick until MK hits but if that's not before E3 then sales will be 5.75m~ plus what they sell in April and May, judging by their shipments for that period last year it won't be high.

Also interesting to note that WiiU is down YOY in japan so far this year 33k. If it's down in Europe/US too will they hit that 390k shipped forecast?



 

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Shortiloe on 29 January 2014

Well, you tried.



Viper1 on 29 January 2014
Seece said:

Nintendo financials release today and it shows WiiU at 5.86m shipped (VGC shows around 5.3m sold end of 2013, so 500k~ on shelves.)

Nintendo have forecast 390k for Q1, exactly same as last year. If they hit this, it would put lifetime shipments end of march at 6.25m. The following Q they shipped 160k.

Of course there is Mario kart to consider, but we're going into February without a release date ... surely it's getting less and less likely it'll release before E3? Which is early June.

Sales won't get an uptick until MK hits but if that's not before E3 then sales will be 5.75m~ plus what they sell in April and May, judging by their shipments for that period last year it won't be high.

Also interesting to note that WiiU is down YOY in japan so far this year 33k. If it's down in Europe/US too will they hit that 390k shipped forecast?

Mario Kart Wii's release date was anot announced until March 12.  It launched just 6 weeks later.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Seece on 29 January 2014
Viper1 said:
Seece said:

Nintendo financials release today and it shows WiiU at 5.86m shipped (VGC shows around 5.3m sold end of 2013, so 500k~ on shelves.)

Nintendo have forecast 390k for Q1, exactly same as last year. If they hit this, it would put lifetime shipments end of march at 6.25m. The following Q they shipped 160k.

Of course there is Mario kart to consider, but we're going into February without a release date ... surely it's getting less and less likely it'll release before E3? Which is early June.

Sales won't get an uptick until MK hits but if that's not before E3 then sales will be 5.75m~ plus what they sell in April and May, judging by their shipments for that period last year it won't be high.

Also interesting to note that WiiU is down YOY in japan so far this year 33k. If it's down in Europe/US too will they hit that 390k shipped forecast?

Mario Kart Wii's release date was anot announced until March 12.  It launched just 6 weeks later.

Has there been any case similar to this in the last 2 years though??



 

eFKac on 29 January 2014

Mario Kart 8 has a spring release window, no? If it launches it will hit 6 million no doubt, without it, I think it will anyway, but way closer.



So it is happening...PS4 preorder.

Greatness Awaits!

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Viper1 on 29 January 2014
Seece said:
Viper1 said:
Seece said:

Nintendo financials release today and it shows WiiU at 5.86m shipped (VGC shows around 5.3m sold end of 2013, so 500k~ on shelves.)

Nintendo have forecast 390k for Q1, exactly same as last year. If they hit this, it would put lifetime shipments end of march at 6.25m. The following Q they shipped 160k.

Of course there is Mario kart to consider, but we're going into February without a release date ... surely it's getting less and less likely it'll release before E3? Which is early June.

Sales won't get an uptick until MK hits but if that's not before E3 then sales will be 5.75m~ plus what they sell in April and May, judging by their shipments for that period last year it won't be high.

Also interesting to note that WiiU is down YOY in japan so far this year 33k. If it's down in Europe/US too will they hit that 390k shipped forecast?

Mario Kart Wii's release date was anot announced until March 12.  It launched just 6 weeks later.

Has there been any case similar to this in the last 2 years though??

Actually, yeah.

Nintendo are well known for keeping exact release dates in the dark until very near the release.  That's why they use the temporary season or quarter dates a lot.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Seece on 29 January 2014
Viper1 said:
Seece said:
Viper1 said:
Seece said:

Nintendo financials release today and it shows WiiU at 5.86m shipped (VGC shows around 5.3m sold end of 2013, so 500k~ on shelves.)

Nintendo have forecast 390k for Q1, exactly same as last year. If they hit this, it would put lifetime shipments end of march at 6.25m. The following Q they shipped 160k.

Of course there is Mario kart to consider, but we're going into February without a release date ... surely it's getting less and less likely it'll release before E3? Which is early June.

Sales won't get an uptick until MK hits but if that's not before E3 then sales will be 5.75m~ plus what they sell in April and May, judging by their shipments for that period last year it won't be high.

Also interesting to note that WiiU is down YOY in japan so far this year 33k. If it's down in Europe/US too will they hit that 390k shipped forecast?

Mario Kart Wii's release date was anot announced until March 12.  It launched just 6 weeks later.

Has there been any case similar to this in the last 2 years though??

Actually, yeah.

Nintendo are well known for keeping exact release dates in the dark until very near the release.  That's why they use the temporary season or quarter dates a lot.

What are the examples then? In the last 2 years?



 

fleischr on 29 January 2014

Put a bet on it!



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Anfebious on 29 January 2014

The Wii U is at 5.6. You say the Wii U won't sell 400k from now until the E3? I am willing to bet on that one.



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

tbone51 on 29 January 2014
Seece said:
Viper1 said:

Mario Kart Wii's release date was anot announced until March 12.  It launched just 6 weeks later.

Has there been any case similar to this in the last 2 years though??

Actually, yeah.

Nintendo are well known for keeping exact release dates in the dark until very near the release.  That's why they use the temporary season or quarter dates a lot.

What are the examples then? In the last 2 years?

Kirby Triple Deluxe (japan)

Does eShop Titles count? Cuz NES Remix was announced/released same day and Dr Luigi came out 2 weeks after announcement.

im sure there is more but i cant remember.

Edit: You better bet somebody with that bold prediction. I see 3 post asking for a bet.