DerNebel said:
I expect the 3DS to be down starting from this year, ending up at about 80-90mil units sold lifetime. I don't see the Wii U ever really picking up in sales and probably ending up at around Gamecube levels, so 20-25mil. The PS4 seems to have some massive momentum behind it, if Sony manages to keep that up aka makes great first party games for it, keeps the price competitive and just doesn't fuck up the PS4s image somehow I can see the PS4 reach about 120mil maybe more, thus outselling the 3DS+Wii U. I made a thread about it where pretty much everyone disagreed with me :D |
I love posts like this, because they're entirely based on holiday sales, and therefore, have no substance whatsoever.
People must understand that the PS4 broke all records mostly due to several different factors. 1) The industry needed next gen to happen and gamers wanted it really really badly. 2) The PS4 is new tech. 3) The previous generation lasted for far too long. Because of this, the industry became a bit distorted, and somewhat stale. The PS4 was more like a breath of fresh air from an old attic.
However, like all anomalies, we must be cautious in making our predictions (especially on holiday sales). What may seem like something totally successful, may cause problems later on for either the company in question or the system itself. We have to give the PS4 until March to see how it's doing. Holiday sales simply isn't enough to go by just yet.
Also remember that Sony is selling their system at a loss. I don't know the specifics, but I hear it takes the sale of one game to make that loss into a gain for Sony. However, I'm not too sure if Sony means first party games or 3rd party games (because many 3rd parties pay little to nothing in regards to royalties). Many of Sony's first party games aren't selling extremely well (with Killzone: Shadow Fall a bit over a million copies sold compared to over 4 million PS4s sold). It means that Sony is taking a massive blow financially just by selling the PS4. Maybe Sony can make up for a good portion of those losses in Japan when the PS4 is finally available there, but it wouldn't be enough to cover the total losses Sony is incurring for the PS4 world wide. I mean, we could be potentionally looking at another Dreamcast scenerio.