torok said:
In general, taxes are higher on consoles than in other devices because they aren't a basic need, so a lot of the price differences we see in the US can shift in these markets. PS2 had demand here until 2010. Do you think anyone in emerging markets bought it because they prefer it instead of a PS3? I bought my PS2 in 2009 and believe me, if I could get a PS3 instead I wouldn't even had thinked about it (fortunately, I got a PS3 2 years after it). Besides that, they will surelly come for these markets like crazy. Looking at Brazil during PS2 era, piracy was rampant and the economy was terrible. With PS3, there is almost zero piracy and now the economy is superb. These things are on shelves of all stores with piles of games. Sony is doing some heavy investments here, with the Ayrton Senna content in GT6, PS Plus and the cheaper exclusive games (launched at US$ 60 instead of the normal US$ 90). PS360 here costs around US$ 400. The magical number for emerging markets is on less than US$ 200. |
Brazil has massively high import taxes which is why the PS4 is ~$2000.00 there. But Sony is looking to manufacture PS4's there to remove the import tax. With a more market friendly PS4, the PS3 will be cycled out just as other markets are doing.
The rEVOLution is not being televised
I think it depends a lot on China.
However, I predict it will come up short with about 87-94M. I'm sure people who would want to spend around 100$ to 150$ will just save so they can buy a PS4.
It will also depend a lot on Microsoft if they drop the support on the 360. It's just as someone said already, the PS2 had no real competition.
| misterchoc90 said: I'm sure people who would want to spend around 100$ to 150$ will just save so they can buy a PS4. |
The PS3 and 360 games only cost a fraction of the PS4 and XBO games and there is a great selection.
| Viper1 said: Brazil has massively high import taxes which is why the PS4 is ~$2000.00 there. But Sony is looking to manufacture PS4's there to remove the import tax. With a more market friendly PS4, the PS3 will be cycled out just as other markets are doing. |
On Uruguay, PS4 costs US$ 800, it isn't that cheap and is actually the cheaper PS4 on LA. PS4 price on Brazil isn't about taxes, since One costs US$1000 here and is imported to (Wii U costs US$ 900), it is more about Sony Brazil stealing their customers. They even published a calculation of tax costs that was wrong! (the taxes are 60%. They got the US$400, added retail margin, their profit margin and distribution costs and, after that, 60%. The taxes are about the import price, not about costs that happen in national territory!)
About manufacturing, it doesn't change that much. PS3 was around US$ 600-700 and just dropped to US$ 500 and that was when they changed the Slim line for the Super Slim ones. When the national PS3 launched, it was even more expensive than the imported one because of the higher manufacturing costs (China is too cheap). The brazilian goverment would need to offer subsidies and it just doesn't look much interested. Computer got way cheaper after government subsidies and now the focus is to create subsidies for entry-level tablets and smartphones, nothing about consoles.
torok said:
Besides that, it wouldn't even have to equal PS1/2 performance. If it did, it would sell 115-120M. Assuming it won't do as good, 100M+ still is reasonable. If they price cut it this year, we can have 6-7M sales, maybe even 8M. The next year? 4-6M. That's 10M more in 2 years, so it already gets to 90M in the worst case scenario. Then it can even halve its average sales rate and do 10M in 4 years and we will be at 100M. |
It's not all about how long sony want the system to sell if for. It's also about how long there is a market for the product. The year the ps3 launched the ps2 sold over 13 million. The ps3 didn't even sell that many in 2012 and last year sold a little over 8 million.
People aren't comparing the price point of the ps4 to the ps1 or even the ps2 (what would there prices be with inflation anyway?) They are buying it faster than any other console before. Part of ps2s long post ps3 launch life was the high price of the ps3. The ps3 actually has a disavantage here.
Yes if some of the developing markets pick up there is a chance, the ps3 could take off but will it be enough to ofset the losses elsewhere? Will the price of the ps3 really come down enough in those markets to take off there? Sony isn't likely to lower the price to be at a loss now since the late adopters of systems don't buy anywhere near the games that the early and even mid adopters do.
The numbers you put up aren't worst case senario. It's not going to hit 8 this year even with a price cut. It got that last year with many great games. 6 million would be down only 25% yoy that is sadly also unlikely. between 4 and 5 this year is more likely. with the year after even less. The rate of the drop isn't likely to slow down. It's probably going to speed up.
At the rate that VGChartz keep changing the PS3 numbers its a lottery to know how many they have sold now
Conina said:
In most regions Playstation Now will be unusable for many years (internet infrastructure, data caps, service will not be offered in many countries). And don't forget PS Plus... many PS4 owner will subscribe for multiplayer access and the monthly PS4 game. But they also get two PS3 games every month, so many of them without a PS3 will be tempted eventually to get an additional PS3 for these games. |
That is possible though so far that hasn't proven much of a boost for the vita and that had some of it's best games on plus.
Sadly some of those problemst for psnow will be an issue for some users with psplus. How many gigs will all those ps3 games be in addition to the ps4 games.
The big thing though is I don't see plus pushing the numbers of new console buyers needed to get ps3 sales from falling off before it hits 100 million
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