oniyide said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Probably with lower lifetime sales (but we can't know for sure so early), Wii U sales pattern will probably be more like PS3 than Wii: instead of a few huge system sellers (mostly 1st party), Wii U will slowly take-off as its game library will grow, with some big sellers, many decent ones, and the huge ones that will come later, as a consequence of already large enough user base... Something like current GT5 lifetime sales, or Xmas 2012 CoD. It requires competence and steadfast commitment, but it has a little advantage: gradual growth based on good and large overall SW offer doesn't rely on hype, so it can make up for horrible marketing. |
im not quite sure. I can see pattern wise. but IMHO it will never have the recovery that PS3 did. PS3 had one thing that Wii U doesnt seem to be getting 3rd party support. It has always had it and will continue to get it toward the end. Whether they were exclusive or not is irrelevant. Their is no way that Ninty can make up that volume of games, its hard enough but they also have to support 3ds.
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Also for PS3, though, the best of 3rd party started coming when its price wasn't anymore horribly high, and so PS3 biggest problem was solved. Wii U problem isn't price, but horrible marketing, insufficient commitment and lack of focus or lack of the ability (again marketing problem in this case) to show users what it's focusing on. Then, probably many 3rd party games were already planned and just delayed, so this gave PS3 a further opportunity to recover quickly. I agree with you, so, that with adequate but not outstanding commitment, Wii U can recover with a PS3-like pattern, but lower total sales, to get comparable volume it will need a lot more, a 1st party library large enough to make up for smaller 3rd party one, and a long term plan, as even recovering at its best, being any hype expired it will need at least another 7 years (so at least an 8-year plan) to reach 80M. And yes, to achieve this they should also invest a tiny share of their huge cash on, say, three more 1st party studios, one more for 3DS (that is not as strong as DS in the dead seasons) and two more for Wii U. They must do it now, as doing it later it will be less effective and it will cost them more, due to losses and bad sales lasting longer. Also, creating studios now, with many parts of the world not out of the last crisis yet, they could hire talented devs for a little less. Finally, dev studios are assets that in the worst case possible, Ninty going 3rd party, could still be highly valuable and made the most of.
About wishes and needs. IMVHO, while both Ninty and Sony must obviously aim at the leadership, both need the other to stay healthy, as Microsoft, due to its size, wealth, power, greed and lust for even more power, is a very dangerous competitor, but luckily it's not very nimble: when it's able to attack a single target, it can use its brute force, but when it has two or more healthy competitors, its attacks become a lot less effective, and often when it attacks one of them, the other gathers the fruits in its place (like it happened when MS started 7th gen early, increasing initial difficulties and losses for Sony, just to see its thunder stolen by Wii). BTW, three healthy competitors with MS prevented from getting a monopoly or strong leadership, is good for PC gamers too, as it forces MS to still consider essential PC gaming market and too dangerous and counterproductive messing with it.
