Not all movements have to be western nor software driven, I'm lost how you think the Vita will struggle to sell 3-4 million more units Lifetime.

Just a hunch. and them japanese

Will beat it easily.
Still a lot of big first party exclusives missing on the vita and the most the third party are not even trying at the moment.

In the west it's dropping, but not in Japan. Gravity Rush 2, Freedom Wars, and Soul Sacrifice delta just to name a few could get Vita to pass 10.6 million this year.

You think Vita will sell just 3 millions in the rest of it's life? It will top at least 20 million, can't see doing worst than that. The console has improved a lot in japan and europe, the problem is NA, but still I can see it doing decent figures.

3rd parties are not coming to save the day. This will be solidified when Borderlands 2 has abysmal sales. 

Sony from what it seems is far too focused on PS4 to bother with Vita.

20 million is beyond wishful thinking at this point. Wii U is expected only to reach 20 million with a much stonger lineup and support than Vita. If sales decline as they have been, I believe Sony will discontinue the Vita before it can reach 11mill ltd.

Vita is selling better in 2014 then in 2013. Sold 30k this week in Japan alone, last year it sold only 14k. Plus WW sales ending the week of January 4th show Vita selling 140k (53% better then last years 90k).

So if Vita sold over 3 million last year, and is currently at 7 million, that pretty much guarentees 10 million. All it would have to do is still be on the market in 2015, and not drop over 66% in sales to top the GameGear.

From what I read Vita is selling about as well as Gamecube did, so 20 million is very likely. That's more then eny Sega (except the Genesis) managed to sell.

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Also GameGear sold 10.62 million, that 11 million on Wikipedia is an approximation after rounding.

Yes, the Final Fantasy X bump has provided some temporary help but I do not forsee that lasting too long and should lead to sales going back down to normal levels like the Wii U.

Your assumption is that it will move 3 million this year with less compelling software than the previous 2 years (minus a few gems for Japan). In my mind I do not understand that logic as software sells hardware.

I believe it is far more plausible that Vita will maintain a 30% decline again for this year and can see Sony discontinuing it  mid 2015 and going back to the drawing board. There is no point in keeping it afloat after that point. Therefore it is a reasobnable estimate to believe it will sell less than GameGear.

As for selling on par with GameCube, can you link those YoY numbers as I am interested to see that.

Yeah but as I've predicted before it will be below 25m (or as I put it, less than Kinect).