So I have seen alot of forum posts (too many), about why Wii U, Xbone, and PS4 will all be either big winners or losers this gen, and the bottom line to me is that not one console has either released or atleast shown that killer app that will skyrocket sales.   Wii U is currently at 5.3m, PS4 at 4.4.m, and Xbone at 3.1m., but when talking about which will sell 80+ million consoles, those numbers all all pretty irrelevent.   The Wii last gen had its 1st killer app day 1 in Wii Sports, it was revolutionary, it worked well, and everyone from casual to hardcore wanted to play it. The eventual 81+ million it moved in bundled/retail software is a number that I do not think any game will ever come close to again.   Xbox 360 didnt really have a huge console seller at 1st, but built a nice library very quickly with the Guitar Heros,Gears of War, Mass Effect, and eventually Halo 3, and thats not even mentioning how much of a bump the Kinect gave when it 1st came out.  The PS3's early problems had alot to do with price, but it also had alot to do with the fact that games like God of War III, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Gran Turismo 5 took a long time to come out.  Once they did, coupled with a price drop sales picked up.   On top of that the biggest console sellers for PS3 and 360 last gen were Call of Duty, GTA, and FIFA, all of which are 3rd party, which makes the fact that their lifetime sales are so even, not suprising.

So theres my last gen rundown, but quite honestly I am still waiting to see "that" game.  Wii U is getting alot of really good games, and not doubt the combination of Smash Bros/Mario Kart/ X / Donkey Kong / Hyrule Warriors (for Japan), will help pick up sales, but none of those are going to skyrocket it to 80+ million territory.  PS4 and Xbone both have had great launches but they also launched with their 2 biggest console sellers from the last 5 years (COD and FIFA), and the yearly releases for those franchises are not going to have as great of an effect on sales as they did last generation.  My point is that this generation is still wide open.  If Nintendo stops being stubborn, and makes a true open world Pokemon RPG, that would be a game changer.   Naughty Dog has been on a roll lately, but Sony needs to realize that games like Uncharted and TLOU are never going to move more then 6 million, which is great but not game changing.  If they had them develop something great that appeals to a much wider auidence it could be a game changer.  Microsoft has already killed Gears of War and Fable, and from the only 930k sold of Forza 5, they have pretty much killed that too, and now are just left with Halo.  They need some more 1st party hits, and they are going to need them soon, but all it takes is one game to really catch on (could be TItanfall, but we will see how big it actually gets).     Maybe I am just off here and the PS4 will sell 150 million, Xbone 75 million, and Wii U 15 million, but software has almost always been the deciding factor every gen, and without any DVD/Motion Control factor this gen, I think it will be more true now then ever.

Mario kart and smash will. I find hilarious the people underestimete both games ability to move HW.
A MK8 or Smash bundle with the game pre-installed at 200$ will sell GANGBUSTERS on black friday/holidays/golden week etc.
2014 and 2015 will be the peak years, i expect WiiU to sell 12m+ between the two...which is not much compared to Wii or PS4 but still it may let WiiU reach N64 numbers.

I actually agree, but like you said those will help it get to the 35 - 40 million range, not the 75+ million that I am sure Nintendo wants.   A true Pokemon is the one game that I could see launching the system to that territory.    Everyone has been begging for it, and with how big Skylanders has gotten, they could even do something with the NFC technology that could make the game a 18+ million sell no doubt.

You can't deny the ps4 is the red hot favorite at the moment.

Not every console can sold 100m, at least not with the Nintendo bussiness model. If you want them to lose bilion upon bilion to get a big install base and get third parties aboard since day one like Sony does, then...welll it wouldnt work for Nintendo.

Guess what? Nintendo is more profitable than Sony despite their lesser popularity. Sony wins the pop contest by far if its that what really matters? lol

1. PS4.
2. X1.
3. Wii U.

What I don't deny is that Call of Duty and FIfa were the biggest console sellers for the US and Europe in the last 5 years and that the console launched with those, as well as being cheaper then Xbox One, along with Microsoft falling flat on their face during the reveal and E3, the combination of which has given it its amazing start.     Sony's job now is to keep up the momentum because quite frankly COD and FIFA will not be able to carry them for the next 7 - 8 years.  Nintendo and Microsoft are not going to go down that easy, and to be honest even if PS4 builds a 2 - 3 million console lead, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, and Halo are all big enough to erase that deficit in almost no time flat.

Well I think the Wii already proved that they can sell 100 million consoles with pretty much their own software.  90 percent of the 3rd party games were shovelware, and the only ones that sold great were the Just Dance games.   Relying on 3rd Parties to move consoles is really dumb considering that most consoles profit margin is anywhere from +$30 to -$30.   Sonys going to go broke because no one wants their software.

Hahaha I love these posts, somehow it always sounds like it's downplaying the success of the PS4.

Sorry buddy, you may not have a clue which console will win this gen but I do. I can say with confidence that PS4 will lead this gen. It will outsell the xbone and wii u combined in the end.

Open world pokemon is a game changer? Lol nope. Mario is a bigger franchise than Pokemon, Mario isnt helping the wii u. Making a open world pokemon for wii u will render the 3DS useless. Why buy the 3DS games when you can buy the real experience on the console? It will never happen because it will cost many x more than developing a handheld version. Imo the last chance for Wii u is MK8, if that doesnt do good nothing will imo. No X, no Bayo 2, no whatever else they got in stores has the recognition of Mario.

Yes Mario Kart and Smash Bros are big franchises but they will basically push hardware to GC/N64 levels. People arent underestimating those games, most people are actually being pretty realistic about them. Mario Kart beneffited greatly from the casual audience and huge install base on Wii which Wii U does not have. Smash Bros is now multiplat releasing at the same time as the 3DS version and since it currently has 8x the install base plus being much cheaper and Japan being so handheld centric, its very feasible that version eats into the console version sales.

Its very realistic to believe these games revert back to there pre-Wii level of sales which is 5.5-7m for Smash Bros and 7-10m for Mario Kart. The op is talking about a game that can boost sales to 80m+ which these games certainly wont.