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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo won't hit their forecasts. How did they get them so wrong?

 

What's up with the forecasts?

Nintendo are too optimist... 146 68.22%
 
Nintendo are trying to de... 68 31.78%
 
Total:214

They might be delusional, but not that delusional. They purposefully predict higher.



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BuckStud said:
Seece said:

So April last year Nintendo put out their forecasts for the coming fiscal year. Those included

WiiU HW: 9m
3DS HW: 18m

Along with equally high SW forecasts.

Fastforward to today and it looks like Nintendo will miss both WiiU and 3DS forecasts by 6m a piece.

Now this isn't anything new, Nintendo havn't actually hit a home console forecast in over 3 years (maybe more).

This highlights that Nintendo have failed miserably in reading the market, their expectations are so much higher than they should be.

What's interesting is even last Q when they had the chance to amend them, they didn't. They knew they wouldn't hit them, but they said nothing.

Perhaps they're doing this on purpose, to deceive investors and shareholders? It's one or the other.

Sony revised their forecast for the Vita 3 times and then still only sold half of their last revision.  This isn't only Nintendo doing this.

at least they are doing some revising



S.T.A.G.E. said:
Cheebee said:
Well, tbh they did delay pretty much every single Wii U game they had for months and months and months. Perhaps when they gave those initial forecasts, they still expected to ship everything on time. That would've made a big difference.


If Mario 3D World work didn't shift massive amounts of consoles during the holiday, then DK will not save them. Lets him Mario Kart gets bundled heavily. SSMB wont do the trick, those are for existing gamers.

Yes, so... how does that go against anything I said? My post came down to: WiiU needed a more evenly spread-out release schedule.

They should have released Mario Kart as one of their big holiday titles (it's crazy Nintendo's had two holiday seasons with Wii U, but still hasn't gotten Mario Kart out yet). They should've gotten Pikmin 3 out in early spring, say march. Then WarioWare plus Lego City a month later or so, followed by Zelda WW HD in early summer (june). Wonderful 101 somewhere in between those two (may). Wii Fit could have come out sometime during the summer, and DKC early september, Wii Party U october, Mario 3D World november. Then Kart in december. Wii Sports Club could've been released spread-out during the year, like a new sport every month or so. Nintendo should have convinced Ubisoft not to delay Rayman so it would've come out in february.

I'm absolutely certain Wii U would have had a far more impressive 2013 had the above actually happened, but alas...



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

Cheebee said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Cheebee said:
Well, tbh they did delay pretty much every single Wii U game they had for months and months and months. Perhaps when they gave those initial forecasts, they still expected to ship everything on time. That would've made a big difference.


If Mario 3D World work didn't shift massive amounts of consoles during the holiday, then DK will not save them. Lets him Mario Kart gets bundled heavily. SSMB wont do the trick, those are for existing gamers.

Yes, so... how does that go against anything I said? My post came down to: WiiU needed a more evenly spread-out release schedule.

They should have released Mario Kart as one of their big holiday titles (it's crazy Nintendo's had two holiday seasons with Wii U, but still hasn't gotten Mario Kart out yet). They should've gotten Pikmin 3 out in early spring, say march. Then WarioWare plus Lego City a month later or so, followed by Zelda WW HD in early summer (june). Wonderful 101 somewhere in between those two (may). Wii Fit could have come out sometime during the summer, and DKC early september, Wii Party U october, Mario 3D World november. Then Kart in december. Wii Sports Club could've been released spread-out during the year, like a new sport every month or so. Nintendo should have convinced Ubisoft not to delay Rayman so it would've come out in february.

I'm absolutely certain Wii U would have had a far more impressive 2013 had the above actually happened, but alas...


so Ninty should have just rushed out those games for a possible large boost in sales. They werent ready to be released, cause they were not done yet. Something we have to deal with. No they should not have put out those games when you say they should have, unless you rather have broken games.



oniyide said:
Cheebee said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Cheebee said:
Well, tbh they did delay pretty much every single Wii U game they had for months and months and months. Perhaps when they gave those initial forecasts, they still expected to ship everything on time. That would've made a big difference.


If Mario 3D World work didn't shift massive amounts of consoles during the holiday, then DK will not save them. Lets him Mario Kart gets bundled heavily. SSMB wont do the trick, those are for existing gamers.

Yes, so... how does that go against anything I said? My post came down to: WiiU needed a more evenly spread-out release schedule.

They should have released Mario Kart as one of their big holiday titles (it's crazy Nintendo's had two holiday seasons with Wii U, but still hasn't gotten Mario Kart out yet). They should've gotten Pikmin 3 out in early spring, say march. Then WarioWare plus Lego City a month later or so, followed by Zelda WW HD in early summer (june). Wonderful 101 somewhere in between those two (may). Wii Fit could have come out sometime during the summer, and DKC early september, Wii Party U october, Mario 3D World november. Then Kart in december. Wii Sports Club could've been released spread-out during the year, like a new sport every month or so. Nintendo should have convinced Ubisoft not to delay Rayman so it would've come out in february.

I'm absolutely certain Wii U would have had a far more impressive 2013 had the above actually happened, but alas...


so Ninty should have just rushed out those games for a possible large boost in sales. They werent ready to be released, cause they were not done yet. Something we have to deal with. No they should not have put out those games when you say they should have, unless you rather have broken games.

Obviously I don't mean they should've released unfinished games, derp. Do you think I'm silly?   -_-

By release I mean finish them and put them out there. They should've made sure those games WERE finished at the appropriate time. Expand teams, invest in more assets, resources. Instead, they terribly underestimated the time and effort HD development would gobble up, which lead to delays, which in turn lead to more delays. They messed up badly. One can only hope they learned.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

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They didn't change the 9 million forecast because they didn't want to show weakness going into the holidays. Sure, there were a lot of people/analyst who didn't think Nintendo could meet it, I'm sure Ninty came out with similar conclusions, Nintendo aren't as delusional as people make them out to be, but they still had to show confidence as not to alarm investors.

Ofcourse, now it makes them look bad and they have to apologize for not meeting the forecast. However, it won't be a big much of a big deal if they show profit (and they probably will). As long as investors see profit, I believe Nintendo thinks they can be forgiven.



Cheebee said:
oniyide said:
Cheebee said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Cheebee said:
Well, tbh they did delay pretty much every single Wii U game they had for months and months and months. Perhaps when they gave those initial forecasts, they still expected to ship everything on time. That would've made a big difference.


If Mario 3D World work didn't shift massive amounts of consoles during the holiday, then DK will not save them. Lets him Mario Kart gets bundled heavily. SSMB wont do the trick, those are for existing gamers.

Yes, so... how does that go against anything I said? My post came down to: WiiU needed a more evenly spread-out release schedule.

They should have released Mario Kart as one of their big holiday titles (it's crazy Nintendo's had two holiday seasons with Wii U, but still hasn't gotten Mario Kart out yet). They should've gotten Pikmin 3 out in early spring, say march. Then WarioWare plus Lego City a month later or so, followed by Zelda WW HD in early summer (june). Wonderful 101 somewhere in between those two (may). Wii Fit could have come out sometime during the summer, and DKC early september, Wii Party U october, Mario 3D World november. Then Kart in december. Wii Sports Club could've been released spread-out during the year, like a new sport every month or so. Nintendo should have convinced Ubisoft not to delay Rayman so it would've come out in february.

I'm absolutely certain Wii U would have had a far more impressive 2013 had the above actually happened, but alas...


so Ninty should have just rushed out those games for a possible large boost in sales. They werent ready to be released, cause they were not done yet. Something we have to deal with. No they should not have put out those games when you say they should have, unless you rather have broken games.

Obviously I don't mean they should've released unfinished games, derp. Do you think I'm silly?   -_-

By release I mean finish them and put them out there. They should've made sure those games WERE finished at the appropriate time. Expand teams, invest in more assets, resources. Instead, they terribly underestimated the time and effort HD development would gobble up, which lead to delays, which in turn lead to more delays. They messed up badly. One can only hope they learned.

But thats it, there was no way to finish AND put them out there in the times you suggested. Honestly we dont know whats going on behind close doors, maybe they really dont know what they are doing with HD development and we are seeing that. It'll probably be ok in the end. Thats why they got Namco helping with Smash



Cheebee said:

By release I mean finish them and put them out there. They should've made sure those games WERE finished at the appropriate time. Expand teams, invest in more assets, resources. Instead, they terribly underestimated the time and effort HD development would gobble up, which lead to delays, which in turn lead to more delays. They messed up badly. One can only hope they learned.


This would be further proof for my earlier point that Nintendo are out of touch with the market.

Delaying so many games and struggling to get to grips with HD videogame development, something thats been a key factor in the market for about a Decade.



                            

Carl2291 said:
Cheebee said:

By release I mean finish them and put them out there. They should've made sure those games WERE finished at the appropriate time. Expand teams, invest in more assets, resources. Instead, they terribly underestimated the time and effort HD development would gobble up, which lead to delays, which in turn lead to more delays. They messed up badly. One can only hope they learned.


This would be further proof for my earlier point that Nintendo are out of touch with the market.

Delaying so many games and struggling to get to grips with HD videogame development, something thats been a key factor in the market for about a Decade.

But that's completely irrelevant here, obviously. They never made any HD games before WiiU, so they simply never had to deal with it before. Also, I'll have you know back in 2005-2007 all developers everywhere struggled with the transition to HD, god, the first few years of PS360 were horrible, in that regard. So many studios went utterly bunkrupt during the last gen. Dozens, literally. Just vanished because they couldn't cope.

Nintendo's simply going through that transition a generation later, which is a simple and unavoidable fact due to their last console being an SD machine, and having zero HD-development experience. You have to remember that whatever may have been a 'key factor' to devs working on PS360; that was a total non-factor for Nintendo and their teams, as they all created games exclusively  for their own hardware (in SD). Them severely underestimating the time and resources needed is something they have paid for dearly (and still are).



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

They are so wrong, as wrong as people who prefers other no-Nintendo consoles.



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