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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can 3DS outsell PSP (lifetime)?

 

Which handheld will end up with more sales (lifetime)?

PSP 69 10.27%
 
3DS 522 77.68%
 
About even 81 12.05%
 
Total:672
GdaTyler on 11 January 2014

I think it'll be close. Don't forget PSP did impressively as a handheld to sell more than half of DS LTD sales. Its hardware is also good enough to at least stay relevant for a little longer, unlike DS.



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Proxy-Pie on 11 January 2014
pezus said:
Anfebious said:
I am pretty sure the 3DS is going to outsell the PSP. You can quote me on that in a couple of years if you want but I am 100% sure it will outsell it.


Someone probably will quote you, I'm sure 


Yeah,quoting him after the 3DS outsells it. 



benji232 on 11 January 2014
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:

The real question is what would have to happen for 3DS not to outsell the PSP.

For it to continue its current trajectory.

DS was supported for 7 years...its only been 3 years for the 3DS and its over half way to beating the PSP, if it stays on this trajectory its gonna easily pass the PSP.

In its 7th (full year) Nintendo shipped 6.5m DS's. That's inline with the estimates Pezus posted up there.

Also, it's down YOY. With Pokemon and 2DS. So no the current trajectory does not suggest it'll outsell PSP.

Why don't you bother doing some research instead of just believing it will?

Its not down, 3DS sold more in 2013 than it did in 2012, "why don't you bother doing some research?"

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/

It'll be adjusted.

You don't ship less every Q yet end up selling more YOY.

 


 2012 2013
Q1 2.1 1.24
Q2 1.86 1.4
Q3 3.2 2.49
Q4 7.65  (7 - 8m max)

Sell through is around 6.7m (actually might be less than that) for Q4, so shipments should be around 7.5m.

2 words: Over shipping. 

You can't combine 1Q of 1 FY with 3Q of another FY due to various factors. I can guarantee you that FY14 shipment figures will be higher then FY13 shipment figures. Which is what you should compare. 

If you're comparing sell-through data, then use a normal year. If your comparing shipment data, then use fiscal years.

I'm using what they shipped IN the year. Stock doesn't time travel you know? Fact is if they overshipped last holiday, that would only have a knock on effect in Q1, you can't say it's up despite Q2/Q3 and Q4 being down too.

You can guarantee FY14 will be above FY13? How?

Q1 down due to over shipping in Q4 2012. Q2 due to the decline in Japan, not America or Europe. Q3 was down for obvious reasons. 3DS XL got launched in August which boosted sales tremendously and led to higher then usual sales. With that being said, let's say we use your way of calculating how much 3ds sold in a year. That would put it down 2.03M for the year so far. I can easily see a 2m+ increase YoY in Q4 of 2013 considering that October was one of it's biggest months ever in terms of sales (launch of 2DS+Pokemon) and November being up a lot YoY in the US (200K+). It definetly wouldn't surprise me to see shipments of 9-10M for Q4 2013. But that's just my take on things, I guess we'll find out in 18 days who's right :).

lol what?! We already know sell through is around 6.5m, how do you think Nintendo can convice retailers to hang onto an extra 3.5m 3DS's??

Facts are facts dude. It sold 1.7m in Japan this Q, 2.2m in US, and probably the same in Europe. For 9 - 10m you're talking 3.3m in each region .....

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Proxy-Pie on 11 January 2014
pezus said:
MohammadBadir said:
pezus said:
Anfebious said:
I am pretty sure the 3DS is going to outsell the PSP. You can quote me on that in a couple of years if you want but I am 100% sure it will outsell it.


Someone probably will quote you, I'm sure 


Yeah,quoting him after the 3DS outsells it. 

No, they would probably quote me or someone else saying that won't happen. However, I am pretty confident with my prediction.

I'd bet my account on the 3DS outselling the PSP, and judging by the poll results, a lot of users agree would do the same :P



Seece on 11 January 2014
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:

The real question is what would have to happen for 3DS not to outsell the PSP.

For it to continue its current trajectory.

DS was supported for 7 years...its only been 3 years for the 3DS and its over half way to beating the PSP, if it stays on this trajectory its gonna easily pass the PSP.

In its 7th (full year) Nintendo shipped 6.5m DS's. That's inline with the estimates Pezus posted up there.

Also, it's down YOY. With Pokemon and 2DS. So no the current trajectory does not suggest it'll outsell PSP.

Why don't you bother doing some research instead of just believing it will?

Its not down, 3DS sold more in 2013 than it did in 2012, "why don't you bother doing some research?"

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/

It'll be adjusted.

You don't ship less every Q yet end up selling more YOY.

 


 2012 2013
Q1 2.1 1.24
Q2 1.86 1.4
Q3 3.2 2.49
Q4 7.65  (7 - 8m max)

Sell through is around 6.7m (actually might be less than that) for Q4, so shipments should be around 7.5m.

2 words: Over shipping. 

You can't combine 1Q of 1 FY with 3Q of another FY due to various factors. I can guarantee you that FY14 shipment figures will be higher then FY13 shipment figures. Which is what you should compare. 

If you're comparing sell-through data, then use a normal year. If your comparing shipment data, then use fiscal years.

I'm using what they shipped IN the year. Stock doesn't time travel you know? Fact is if they overshipped last holiday, that would only have a knock on effect in Q1, you can't say it's up despite Q2/Q3 and Q4 being down too.

You can guarantee FY14 will be above FY13? How?

Q1 down due to over shipping in Q4 2012. Q2 due to the decline in Japan, not America or Europe. Q3 was down for obvious reasons. 3DS XL got launched in August which boosted sales tremendously and led to higher then usual sales. With that being said, let's say we use your way of calculating how much 3ds sold in a year. That would put it down 2.03M for the year so far. I can easily see a 2m+ increase YoY in Q4 of 2013 considering that October was one of it's biggest months ever in terms of sales (launch of 2DS+Pokemon) and November being up a lot YoY in the US (200K+). It definetly wouldn't surprise me to see shipments of 9-10M for Q4 2013. But that's just my take on things, I guess we'll find out in 18 days who's right :).

lol what?! We already know sell through is around 6.5m, how do you think Nintendo can convice retailers to hang onto an extra 3.5m 3DS's??

Facts are facts dude. It sold 1.7m in Japan this Q, 2.2m in US, and probably the same in Europe. For 9 - 10m you're talking 3.3m in each region .....

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

Not to mention, they had stock on shelves before October too you know? 1m~



 

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benji232 on 11 January 2014
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:
Seece said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:

The real question is what would have to happen for 3DS not to outsell the PSP.

For it to continue its current trajectory.

DS was supported for 7 years...its only been 3 years for the 3DS and its over half way to beating the PSP, if it stays on this trajectory its gonna easily pass the PSP.

In its 7th (full year) Nintendo shipped 6.5m DS's. That's inline with the estimates Pezus posted up there.

Also, it's down YOY. With Pokemon and 2DS. So no the current trajectory does not suggest it'll outsell PSP.

Why don't you bother doing some research instead of just believing it will?

Its not down, 3DS sold more in 2013 than it did in 2012, "why don't you bother doing some research?"

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/

It'll be adjusted.

You don't ship less every Q yet end up selling more YOY.

 


 2012 2013
Q1 2.1 1.24
Q2 1.86 1.4
Q3 3.2 2.49
Q4 7.65  (7 - 8m max)

Sell through is around 6.7m (actually might be less than that) for Q4, so shipments should be around 7.5m.

2 words: Over shipping. 

You can't combine 1Q of 1 FY with 3Q of another FY due to various factors. I can guarantee you that FY14 shipment figures will be higher then FY13 shipment figures. Which is what you should compare. 

If you're comparing sell-through data, then use a normal year. If your comparing shipment data, then use fiscal years.

I'm using what they shipped IN the year. Stock doesn't time travel you know? Fact is if they overshipped last holiday, that would only have a knock on effect in Q1, you can't say it's up despite Q2/Q3 and Q4 being down too.

You can guarantee FY14 will be above FY13? How?

Q1 down due to over shipping in Q4 2012. Q2 due to the decline in Japan, not America or Europe. Q3 was down for obvious reasons. 3DS XL got launched in August which boosted sales tremendously and led to higher then usual sales. With that being said, let's say we use your way of calculating how much 3ds sold in a year. That would put it down 2.03M for the year so far. I can easily see a 2m+ increase YoY in Q4 of 2013 considering that October was one of it's biggest months ever in terms of sales (launch of 2DS+Pokemon) and November being up a lot YoY in the US (200K+). It definetly wouldn't surprise me to see shipments of 9-10M for Q4 2013. But that's just my take on things, I guess we'll find out in 18 days who's right :).

lol what?! We already know sell through is around 6.5m, how do you think Nintendo can convice retailers to hang onto an extra 3.5m 3DS's??

Facts are facts dude. It sold 1.7m in Japan this Q, 2.2m in US, and probably the same in Europe. For 9 - 10m you're talking 3.3m in each region .....

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

You're assuming Europe will be equal to the US when the past has always proven otherwise. DS sold a lot more in Europe then they did in the US. Also, when I calculate, we only have it overtracked by 200k in the US which still puts it at 7.4m. May I ask you again, where are you taking those figures except a bunch of assumptions for Europe and "others" and the rest of America. 

Anyways, we'll know the figures in 18 days. I am not saying that I'm stating facts, I'm merely stating my opinion here. If we really do have it overtracked by 1m like you're suggesting, then your 7-8m figure for Q4 might be right. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Leadified on 11 January 2014

It's going to be pretty close but I think the PSP will barely edge it out. I can't really see the 3DS going up YoY in the future partially because Nintendo has to focus right now more on the Wii U. I think the 3DS will follow a similar life to the GBA and we'll probably see a successor in the next 2 years or so which will cut into 3DS sales, but anything could happen.



Seece on 11 January 2014
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

You're assuming Europe will be equal to the US when the past has always proven otherwise. DS sold a lot more in Europe then they did in the US. Also, when I calculate, we only have it overtracked by 200k in the US which still puts it at 7.4m. May I ask you again, where are you taking those figures except a bunch of assumptions for Europe and "others" and the rest of America. 

Anyways, we'll know the figures in 18 days. I am not saying that I'm stating facts, I'm merely stating my opinion here. If we really do have it overtracked by 1m like you're suggesting, then your 7-8m figure for Q4 might be right. 

3DS is not DS. Take a look at this - http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/131030e.pdf

3DS LTD as of September 30th

Americas - 11.43m
Others - 10.22m

Others = Europe and everywhere else.
Americas = US and NA/SA.

You could argue which is bigger, the fact is they're neck and neck and US is probably a better market for 3DS than Europe. Case in point the previous 6 months Americas outshipped Others by 240k. (1.17m to 0.97m).

Also using US, Europe and Japan you can guage (and have been able to for a long time) that every other market makes up 10% of 3DS sales.

So I reiterate.

US is at 2.2m (thanks to NPD we know this), Europe is probably the same, Japan is 1.7m. Plus the 10% elsewhere. The sales are around 6.7m it could fluctuate either way a couple hundred k.

Also like I just said, bare in mind there was stock on shelves end of September. Probably 1m+, of which are part of that 6.7m. So saying you predict 9m shipped is saying you think there is 3.3m on shelves/warehouses.



 

DerNebel on 11 January 2014

I'd say they'll end up in the same ballpark, 80-90mil.

Little anecdote, a couple of days ago there was a thread on reddits r/Games about Nintendos stock jump. Someone in that thread said that the 3DS is projected to be the highest selling console/handheld ever and tons of people agreed with him, really goes to show how alot of people have no idea what they're talking about and get swept away way too easily just because the 3DS is doing better than the other consoles at the moment.



sidmeiernintifan on 11 January 2014

I think people are not talking into account Nintendo's ability to cut the price.
Nintendo was selling 2DS for 100 dollars this year IIRC, who knows if they won't be able to sell it much cheaper in 2 years. I guess they will.

And people are also forgetting the long life of the Gameboy, it lasted pretty much the whole 90s. Its biggest sellers were Tetris in 1989-1990 and Pokemon in 1998-1999.

I think it will sell PSP, GBA numbers, and could sell Game Boy numbers if a cheaper than USD100 2DS exists in 2016. And also if Nintendo decides to focus on it instead of the Wii U.