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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict: When will PS4 overtake WiiU? UPDATE: Overtaken February 22nd!

 

When will PS4 overtake WiiU?

Q1 2014 394 52.46%
 
Q2 2014 152 20.24%
 
Q3 2014 50 6.66%
 
October 2014 6 0.80%
 
November 2014 6 0.80%
 
December 2014 13 1.73%
 
2015 27 3.60%
 
2016 6 0.80%
 
2017 or Later 3 0.40%
 
Never 94 12.52%
 
Total:751
Twilord said:
zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
I predict 2015... but I don't know if it will STAY ahead.


Just out of curiousity, what would cause Wii U to repass PS4 in 2015 or later?


An early 2015 release for LoZ-U, followed by a summer release for a Metroid, with a Mario Galaxy release in-between. But Nintendo would need to find some way to maintain that pace afterwards.

Well by that time there will already be 2D Mario out for 2-3 years and 3D Mario out for 1-2 years so its very likely a large percentage of Mario fans will already be on Wii U and Galaxy 3 would sell primarily to people who already own a Wii U.

Also Metroid typically sells 1.5m give or take a few 100k, the original and Prime 1 are the only to pass 2m so Metroid isnt likely to push alot of hardware.

As for Zelda its possible that it boosts hardware but I highly doubt it will more than Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros which are all just as big or bigger than Zelda and all releasing this year.


Honestly, Mario Galaxy wouldn't soo much be to convince people "because its Mario Galaxy" as it would be to reinforce the mental image of Nintendo as having the "ultra-exclusives" its popularly considered to have and to ensure one attention worthy game between Zelda and Metroid.

Metroid on the other hand is a very interesting title, I don't see the game itself selling stellar numbers, but I see it having a very strong attachment rate and being an attention grabber to many aware gamers. Its not exactly the most famour first-person games ever, but it is considered one of the best ones. - Presented alongside an impressive enough Zelda I could see it resulting in many sales.

Lastly, Zelda will sell alot of consoles and that is the key. Even if its not as much of a system seller as Kart, I expect it'll sell comparable to Smash and more than Kong.

In my eyes that line-up could, after the PS4 pulls ahead early in 2015, could give the Wii-U a push of enough to neck back ahead. Could is the keyword ofcourse, I am far from confident that'll happen, but the possibility, in my opinion very much exists.


There are 6 series of Nintendo games that have been able to sell over 5m on a relatively consistant basis on home consoles for multiple generations. Those series are 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Smash Bros, Zelda and those games are by far the biggest system sellers. By the end of 2014, 5/6 of those games will have released on Wii U so based off that 2014 should be the peak year for Wii U which falls in line with N64/GC/Wii which all peaked by the second full year. Those games u listed plus a price cut to $199 will help sales from dropping too far but will likely still be under 2014 sales.

On the other hand in 2015 its very possible that PS4 gets a price cut to $299 and thats likely the year that multiplat games stop releasing on PS3/360. Also Playstation consoles arent nearly as front loaded as Nintendo consoles so basically once PS4 passes Wii U its not likely to lose that lead unless Nintendo is able to find some type of Wii Sports/Kinect craze that drastically pushes hardware.

So while ur prediction isnt Impossible, I dont see it happening with the examples u gave.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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MTZehvor said:
I'll be different and go 2015. The tag team of DK, Mario Kart, and Super Smash Bros will be enough to keep the Wii U in front until next year.


that's exactly what I was thinking



I'll say Q2. Have to wait and see how things settle down this month and how hyped Japan will be for PS4.



My 8th gen collection

zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
I predict 2015... but I don't know if it will STAY ahead.


Just out of curiousity, what would cause Wii U to repass PS4 in 2015 or later?


An early 2015 release for LoZ-U, followed by a summer release for a Metroid, with a Mario Galaxy release in-between. But Nintendo would need to find some way to maintain that pace afterwards.

Well by that time there will already be 2D Mario out for 2-3 years and 3D Mario out for 1-2 years so its very likely a large percentage of Mario fans will already be on Wii U and Galaxy 3 would sell primarily to people who already own a Wii U.

Also Metroid typically sells 1.5m give or take a few 100k, the original and Prime 1 are the only to pass 2m so Metroid isnt likely to push alot of hardware.

As for Zelda its possible that it boosts hardware but I highly doubt it will more than Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros which are all just as big or bigger than Zelda and all releasing this year.


Honestly, Mario Galaxy wouldn't soo much be to convince people "because its Mario Galaxy" as it would be to reinforce the mental image of Nintendo as having the "ultra-exclusives" its popularly considered to have and to ensure one attention worthy game between Zelda and Metroid.

Metroid on the other hand is a very interesting title, I don't see the game itself selling stellar numbers, but I see it having a very strong attachment rate and being an attention grabber to many aware gamers. Its not exactly the most famour first-person games ever, but it is considered one of the best ones. - Presented alongside an impressive enough Zelda I could see it resulting in many sales.

Lastly, Zelda will sell alot of consoles and that is the key. Even if its not as much of a system seller as Kart, I expect it'll sell comparable to Smash and more than Kong.

In my eyes that line-up could, after the PS4 pulls ahead early in 2015, could give the Wii-U a push of enough to neck back ahead. Could is the keyword ofcourse, I am far from confident that'll happen, but the possibility, in my opinion very much exists.


There are 6 series of Nintendo games that have been able to sell over 5m on a relatively consistant basis on home consoles for multiple generations. Those series are 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Smash Bros, Zelda and those games are by far the biggest system sellers. By the end of 2014, 5/6 of those games will have released on Wii U so based off that 2014 should be the peak year for Wii U which falls in line with N64/GC/Wii which all peaked by the second full year. Those games u listed plus a price cut to $199 will help sales from dropping too far but will likely still be under 2014 sales.

On the other hand in 2015 its very possible that PS4 gets a price cut to $299 and thats likely the year that multiplat games stop releasing on PS3/360. Also Playstation consoles arent nearly as front loaded as Nintendo consoles so basically once PS4 passes Wii U its not likely to lose that lead unless Nintendo is able to find some type of Wii Sports/Kinect craze that drastically pushes hardware.

So while ur prediction isnt Impossible, I dont see it happening with the examples u gave.


You seem like a reasonable person, we can probably agree to disagree. I don't think either of us expect the PS4 to lose to the Wii-U, but I think the Wii-U has the potential to pull back ahead, however briefly, after the first time the PS4 pulls ahead.

 

I just suspect that Metroid Prime 4 ending up as a silent hitter is far less likely nowadays given that, in my experience, the average gamer is much better connected to gaming news than they used to be (like with how Fire-Emblem: Awakening sold so well) and that, the "triple threat" of those three games could be very significant, and act almost like an entire extra heavy-hitter.



Q3 2014



nice

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February 22nd 2014



think-man said:
POE said:
Never

Wanna bet?


Sure. What do we bet?



POE said:
think-man said:
POE said:
Never

Wanna bet?


Sure. What do we bet?

Permaban, go on I dare you :P



 

Sadly i think by the end of March



Seece said:
POE said:
think-man said:
POE said:
Never

Wanna bet?


Sure. What do we bet?

Permaban, go on I dare you :P

I'm keen :)