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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict: When will PS4 overtake WiiU? UPDATE: Overtaken February 22nd!

 

When will PS4 overtake WiiU?

Q1 2014 394 52.46%
 
Q2 2014 152 20.24%
 
Q3 2014 50 6.66%
 
October 2014 6 0.80%
 
November 2014 6 0.80%
 
December 2014 13 1.73%
 
2015 27 3.60%
 
2016 6 0.80%
 
2017 or Later 3 0.40%
 
Never 94 12.52%
 
Total:751

Late Q3 2014. I could see Q2 being a possibility though.



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zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
I predict 2015... but I don't know if it will STAY ahead.


Just out of curiousity, what would cause Wii U to repass PS4 in 2015 or later?


An early 2015 release for LoZ-U, followed by a summer release for a Metroid, with a Mario Galaxy release in-between. But Nintendo would need to find some way to maintain that pace afterwards.



I'm pretty confident it will happen in March. But, I'll play it safe and say Q2 2014.



vivster said:
I think this is a Win-Win situation for everyone.
If the WiiU manages to stay ahead throughout 2014 it will crush 80% of all predictions, which is always funny.
If the new games fail to sell enough systems we have something to gloat about for the over confident Nintendo fans and their absolute "Savior" titles. Because if MK and SSB can't sell consoles, nothing can.


I can see the threads already, I can't wait.



Twilord said:
zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
I predict 2015... but I don't know if it will STAY ahead.


Just out of curiousity, what would cause Wii U to repass PS4 in 2015 or later?


An early 2015 release for LoZ-U, followed by a summer release for a Metroid, with a Mario Galaxy release in-between. But Nintendo would need to find some way to maintain that pace afterwards.

Well by that time there will already be 2D Mario out for 2-3 years and 3D Mario out for 1-2 years so its very likely a large percentage of Mario fans will already be on Wii U and Galaxy 3 would sell primarily to people who already own a Wii U.

Also Metroid typically sells 1.5m give or take a few 100k, the original and Prime 1 are the only to pass 2m so Metroid isnt likely to push alot of hardware.

As for Zelda its possible that it boosts hardware but I highly doubt it will more than Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros which are all just as big or bigger than Zelda and all releasing this year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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I think it could be as early as the end of this month. End of february is a definite, especially with the Japan launch.



zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
zorg1000 said:
Twilord said:
I predict 2015... but I don't know if it will STAY ahead.


Just out of curiousity, what would cause Wii U to repass PS4 in 2015 or later?


An early 2015 release for LoZ-U, followed by a summer release for a Metroid, with a Mario Galaxy release in-between. But Nintendo would need to find some way to maintain that pace afterwards.

Well by that time there will already be 2D Mario out for 2-3 years and 3D Mario out for 1-2 years so its very likely a large percentage of Mario fans will already be on Wii U and Galaxy 3 would sell primarily to people who already own a Wii U.

Also Metroid typically sells 1.5m give or take a few 100k, the original and Prime 1 are the only to pass 2m so Metroid isnt likely to push alot of hardware.

As for Zelda its possible that it boosts hardware but I highly doubt it will more than Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros which are all just as big or bigger than Zelda and all releasing this year.


Honestly, Mario Galaxy wouldn't so much be to convince people "because its Mario Galaxy" as it would be to reinforce the mental image of Nintendo as having the "ultra-exclusives" its popularly considered to have and to ensure one attention worthy game between Zelda and Metroid.

Metroid on the other hand is a very interesting title, I don't see the game itself selling stellar numbers, but I see it having a very strong attachment rate and being an attention grabber to many aware gamers. Its not exactly the most famour first-person games ever, but it is considered one of the best ones. - Presented alongside an impressive enough Zelda I could see it resulting in many sales.

Lastly, Zelda will sell alot of consoles and that is the key. Even if its not as much of a system seller as Kart, I expect it'll sell comparable to Smash and more than Kong.

In my eyes that line-up could, after the PS4 pulls ahead early in 2015, could give the Wii-U a push of enough to neck back ahead. Could is the keyword ofcourse, I am far from confident that'll happen, but the possibility, in my opinion very much exists. 

 

As to if the Wii-U woud STAY ahead again if that happened, I won't even pretend to know.



by the end of q1 2014



 

Should get rid of the poll, users hide behind them and seldom comment on why they picked that option.

Anyways I choose Q2 2014, that's me playing it safe.



POE said:
Never

Wanna bet?