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Forums - Sales Discussion - Each Console's best year

Mr Stickball, However the PS1 was always ahead of the N64 in the US in terms of total sales. the PS1 had a slower sales start but also had a year lead on the N64. If you allign the launches the N64 launched much better but if allign the dates it did worse. Also he N64 sold well in the US but horribly in Japan and Europe. the PS3 can't claim this in any any country at the moment aside from teh European launch.



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mrstickball -

March 1995:

SonyMar-19950.85 / 0.850.00 / 0.000.00 / 0.000.85 / 0.85
SegaMar-19950.84 / 0.840.00 / 0.000.00 / 0.000.84 / 0.84

March 1996:

SonyMar-19960.90 / 2.460.79 / 1.000.80 / 0.802.49 / 4.26
SegaMar-19960.92 / 2.500.33 / 0.570.33 / 0.331.58 / 3.40

March 1997:

SonyMar-19972.71 / 6.501.51 / 4.001.22 / 3.005.44 / 13.50
NintendoMar-19970.75 / 2.042.73 / 3.110.97 / 0.974.45 / 6.12
SegaMar-19970.89 / 4.800.87 / 1.700.54 / 1.062.30 / 7.56

March 1998:

SonyMar-19982.91 / 11.513.87 / 11.673.54 / 9.6410.32 / 32.82
NintendoMar-19980.68 / 3.153.02 / 9.810.94 / 3.184.64 / 16.14
SegaMar-19980.31 / 5.510.02 / 1.850.01 / 1.140.34 / 8.50

March 1999:

SonyMar-19992.11 / 15.264.55 / 20.624.62 / 18.5411.28 / 54.42
NintendoMar-19990.86 / 4.361.81 / 14.120.63 / 4.603.30 / 23.08
SegaMar-19990.00 / 5.740.00 / 1.870.00 / 1.150.06 / 8.82

If you take a close look the Playstation never came from behind to win ... It started off slowly against remarkably weak competition (the Saturn), built momentium and outsold the N64 in every fiscal year.

 



....I was speaking about North America, not Japan. The N64 never had remotely good sales in Japan, of which I don't argue. I was just speaking merely from the North American perspective. Despite the 4.0 to 3.11 sales in North America that year, as I gave numbers for, the N64 came within a hundred thousand to the PS1.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

hey people? agaaaain??? people can`t predict future. they only can guess, but hey, ps3 and wii only half a year. And no real kill`ap`s are still released on them. and hey, when in some 2010 Wii will cost 99$ won`t you buy it? why only 100 mln???(it also plays GC games) it can be even 300 mln. It only depends on how nintendo will solve the problem of high demand, when not enough Wii released. PS3 ? If graphics will be like in FF7:AC CGI, you think people won`t want to play such games? People go to moovies for such Computer Graphics Effects, and now they will be able play games with such graphics. It`s on ps1/ps2 games were looking like games, now games on PS3 may look like moovies(KZ2, MGS4, FFXIII) or real life - GT5, Getaway3. Besides in 2010 wouldn`t you buy good blu-ray player fr 300$ which also plays games? =)) x360 ? hey come on, they are not going even reach 10 mln. by the end of 1st part of 2007. if MS won`t make price for premium 300$ by autumn 2007, it most likely they will sell in 2nd part of 2007 around 3-4 mln. And people don`t complain about price x360, only about ps3.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Most of you wonder about my numbers.. Well here is how I see it - the market will expand. Population is going up. these are the most positive (high ends of the estimated sales) ideas about industry growth. Working against those optimistic numbers are, price, low HD-TV adoption rates, and a particular theory I have that I hope will not come true. In this theory, the majority of games become ill-suited for normal gamers - who dislike time-consuming,online-centric, difficult to learn games on 360 and PS3, but also dislike motion-sensing (somewhat) over-simplified games on Wii. This forces the traditional console market to shrink, even as Nintendo pulls in new customers to the market. I don't think it will happen, but if it did, the market would be around 180 million. If both approaches worked, and PS3 and 360 price drops were announced tommorow, the three consoles could reach 250 million. Now, as for the ranges - Sony has the strongest brand loyalty in Europe. I just can't see Microsoft or Nintendo passing 27 or 28 million in Europe. Sony is in the 40 something millions with PS2. They will lose alot of market as a percentage in Europe, but very few actual users (the situation is similar to Nintendo in the USA during the SNES-N64 transition when the market expanded but the userbase dropped a little, and the marketshare dropped from like 55% to 35%). Microsoft will start to make inroads in Japan this generation, but they are not even at Sega levels of niche yet in Japan. If Microsoft ever gets to 3 million in Japan, they will become a threat to dominate that market eventually, but it won't happen for at least another 4-5 years. Microsoft has the potential to be stronger than Nintendo in Europe if they can develop more casual content and a better business model, but they have not shown that yet (Live seems to do well only in English speaking countires). America I think will approve of all three consoles. In terms of sales, Microsoft won 2005-2006. Nintendo will likely win 2007-2008. Sony will be third in this market since I get the impression that many Americans simply prefer what Nintendo and Microsoft offer, since Sony has always relied on 3rd party content, and Nintendo will likely have the most 3rd party support this generation, while Microsoft will have Live, cheaper entrance, and many games that were formerly Playstation only. I can also see many Wii owners buying 360 and vice versa, since 360 and Wii both seem to be better suited at tapping into gaming as a social function (imagine playing professional athletes in Wii MLB 2k9 online or something, with actual accurate pitching and hitting mechanics). All three consoles will easily hit 10 million in the USA by their third x-mas of availability in the USA. Japan seems infatuated with games that are 'deep' but easy to play, which favors Wii most. Sony is going to lose at least 1/3 of their market because of a number of factors (mainly price), but I don't see them losing 70%, which would knock them down to 40-45 million sold. Sega went from 30 million to 10 million from Gen-Sat.. a 70% loss...and Sony is not as incompetant as Sega no matter how silly Sony may look right now, but they are not as savvy as Nintendo either who lost around 1/3 in sales for 2 generations (from SNES-N64-GC). I personally expect Sony to lose around 40-45% of their PS2 market at worst, which puts them in NES range. When price goes down, I can seem them at 70 million. More than that, alot needs to go right starting now. You have to keep in mind that no manufacturer has ever lost 50 million customers from one generation to the next, so this is still a huge blow to Sony. Basically, no matter what I can't see any of the consoles doing beyond these absolutes: PS3 - 50-100 million (70 million most likely - over 40% loss in PS2 market) Wii - 40-120 million (likely 80 million+, NES numbers + better sales in Europe combined pop growth and expanded market growth as a minimum) 360 - 30-70 million (6 million for 5 years at least, I think it will make significant headway in all three markets, although on a unit level, the gain will be biggest in the USA). No way all three maximums or minimums will be met though.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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CrazzyMan said:
If graphics will be like in FF7:AC CGI, you think people won`t want to play such games? People go to moovies for such Computer Graphics Effects, and now they will be able play games with such graphics. It`s on ps1/ps2 games were looking like games, now games on PS3 may look like moovies(KZ2, MGS4, FFXIII) or real life - GT5, Getaway3. Besides in 2010 wouldn`t you buy good blu-ray player fr 300$ which also plays games? =)) x360 ? hey come on, they are not going even reach 10 mln. by the end of 1st part of 2007. if MS won`t make price for premium 300$ by autumn 2007, it most likely they will sell in 2nd part of 2007 around 3-4 mln. And people don`t complain about price x360, only about ps3.

I don't understand some of these theories... I have yet to hear a developer say that, graphically, the PS3 can do something that the 360 cannot. If anything, I've heard that it's easier to make something on the 360 look BETTER than the PS3.

And people don't complain about the 360 price because the most popular model is 200 freakin' dollars less than the PS3. That's three games and two coffees at Starbucks.




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God I hope there isn't an Xbox 720 in 2009, come on give this generation some time... The only company I think that would be reasonable in making a new console before 4 years from now is Nintendo.



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

I only guesstimate but the PS3 may have a good 2008, I see it to be a batte with the 360 though. This year might be the year of the Wii. I only speculate because of titles.



Games make me happy! PSN ID: Staticneuron Gamertag: Staticneuron Wii Code: Static Wii - 3055 0871 5802 1723

Wii - 2007

360 - 2006

PS3 - 2008 or 2009

PSP - 2007

DS - 2007 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

I'm kind of confused. How can the 360 have it's peak year sell 8 million, yet you think it will sell 60 million LTD. You expect it to have a 10 year lifecycle or something? Anyway your LTD figures are very close to the one's I imagine. For peak years I differ a little and here it is. 2007; no system peaks 2008: DS 30 million, PSP 15 million, Wii 24 million 2009: 360: 16 million 2010: PS3: 22 million Yep I'm definetly predicting a slow curve on the console cycles for the 360 and PS3. Simply put for both systems to do really well adaption of HD-TV's has to improve and the systems obviously have to get cheaper. How Blue Ray does could make the difference between the PS3 selling 30 million or 80 million LTD. 2008 is going to be a huge year for game sales all around. It's amazing the DS has still yet to peak, but I think when it gets to the $100 price it will do better than it ever did before. I think the PSP redesign is key for its future success. The Wii I think will peak that year as well as the supply situation gets fixed once and for all.