Now I know this is just speculation on your part, but, what in the world makes you think for one second that gta6 is coming next year? No way in hell is that going to happen.

The PS4 is not the PS2, simple as that. The PS2 had pathetic competition, both consoles combined sold about half of what the PS3 will end up at, combined, that's atrocious. Factor in that the PS2 had practically monopolized 3rd party support by inheriting the PS1's reputation and momentum and massive software selling capability and that all this was before the gaming market started branching out like it has in the last 5-6 years; and there's no way any console will repeat the feats of the PS2, no 75% marketshare, sustained sales of over 20 million for several years running, no selling hardware for fifteen years, 1.6 billion pieces of software or close to sole subscription to developer support.

Saying that "the fastest selling console can do this/that" is useless; the Wii was also the fastest selling consoles, we saw how that ended.

We're going to see a market contraction and a shorter hardware cycle than the 7th gen; the 6th generation winner, the PS2, saw an unprecedented sales presence for such a long time due to:

A: Having all those advantages listed above (support, marketshare)

B: The beginning stages of the HD era were pretty slow so they SD era PS2 remained relevant for longer, it was also extending into developing markets so it was in Sony's best interest to keep it vital for as long as possible

Point B also ties into why the cycle will be shorter in the 8th gen; first off, the HD transition was always going to draw on, like in the VGA/SVGA age, they basically needed brand new developer paradigms and methods, a whole new race of console developer tools, scaleable middleware, shader tech, new high-res meshes and textures etc, it was extended due to the very nature of development taking a long and costly turn; everyone needed to get the most out of it, not only due to increased cost, but also as a measure of gaining experience, methodology and approach towards HD development in general.
The whole process was not much helped by PC having HD tech for a long time either, for two main reasons; one being that most developers that made their name in the 7th gen didn't have much of a PC tradition, and even if they did and for those who did: console and PC architecture and toolsets were a lot more removed from one another than we see today; there was no proper convergence point in the development process yet, the whole 7th gen was a long transition.

The 8th gen has no such transition; it is more or less a direct continuation of the 7th gen in both philosophy and technical processes.

The other major contributor to the shortened cycle is market driving movements in consumer electronics, mainly due to smartphones and tablets. The consumer electronics sector has become a revisionist arena with an accelerated pace, more process and application integration and more and more shared middle ground in terms of software bedrock (middleware) for development ease, which hinges largely upon a revisionist philosophy and marketing approach. Look at how dedicated handhelds have to essentially sustain momentum through hardware revisions and renewed marketing incentive almost on an annual basis; the same need will hit home console to a greater degree than before due to above mentioned factors, home consoles are simply being affected by overall consumer eletronics market realities a tad slower than dedicated handhelds. Japan is the anomaly here; their market has effectively turned into a killzone for both home consoles and dedicated handhelds now; almost everyone is moving towards tablet/mobile segements (this is also in large part due to a change in development direction, towards a more western-centric philosophy and tradition).
Expect both the PS4 and One to receive more revisions than the 360 and PS3.

TLDR; the PS2 era is long since gone, it won't happen again in home consoles or dedicated handhelds; the PS2 was the culmination in home console, the result of the outmost perfect circumstance, market-wise, economically (right before the financial crisis, the world economy was hitting a peak) and at the peak of an ongoing and highly perfected developer paradigm.

The PS4 is not the new PS2; forget it. The frontloaded launch is simply a testament to the fast market movements I mentioned, sustained, massive momentum with a more static device won't be achieved on the market today, not at the level of the Wii or PS2 at any rate.

PS: How did the Wii sell so quickly, you might wonder? Demographics and genius market aim; they struck the mass market consumers directly in the face and then had this segment and demographic usurped by smartphones and tablets. People who think the PS4 is the new PS2 and those who think the Wii U stands any chance of regaining the bulk of the Wii's audience as equally deluded. The game has changed and will stay changed for the foreseeable future. The console manufacturers will not climb to old heights with traditional means; they will have to change and adapt, and they are doing so, the 9th gen will be radically different to compensate for the new market realities.

Does that answer your question?

Nothing makes me think GTA6 is coming next year, I think it will hit 2016, I was mostly using GTA to have a bit of symmetry with the ps2, as the ps2 had its best selling year (IIRC) the year GTA3 and GT3 came out.

The ps4 doesn't need to be the ps2, and it's not like the WiiU is putting up much of a fight by doing even worse than the gamecube, and whilst so far the XBO is showing much more fight than than is grandpa sale for the system are already falling to not so great levels (though software coming the next month or so will help the system keep okish base level sales.), it's almost a forgone conclusion that they've lost Japan, and they're taking a tanking in Europe, so much so we may end up with the same situation in Europe as the 360 had in Japan, almost non existant. I don't care for what the ps2 did long term, I'm talking about what the ps4 is going to do this year and the next, and I'm not saying the ps4 is capable of 20m+ sales for years and years, I think it may break that barrier twice in a row at best.

The Wii was the console that broke 24m sales in one year...... Which is what I was arguing about, I think the ps4 with the right software at the right time can break 25m sales in one year....

I agree the hardware cycle will be shorter this gen, but that's mostly thanks to the obscenely long cylce of last gen, I think this gen will 5/6 years long as per the norm. Again I'm not bothered about what the ps2 did in terms of having a long life span, but if you think developing countries won't be around to help extend the ps4s' life span come the end of the generation I want what your smoking.

And how is this relavant to how the ps4 is going to sell in the future, all that does is help explain the long cycle for last gen, though the fact that both companies bled out of their arse for a few years also contributed to the long cycle as both wanted to make some money back.

I don't think we'll see more revisions per say but the time between revisions will be shorter (I expect ps4slim in 2015, superslim in 2017/18 and mini in 2019/20) so one more revision, which I think sony would like to do for the ps3 if not for the Cell amongst various other reasons.

Also I really don't think that this gen will shrink in term of size like most people seem to assume, as whilst Japan will once again most likely shrink, and North America is likely to stay flat or fall slightly, I don't think Europe will fall at all, and I think Europe will be 100m+ consoles total, for the simple fact that Europe in terms of population is twice the size of North America and has some countries with strong growth (Eastern Europe for the most part) and I think the ROW will also continue to show strong growth as market, in particular South Asia and South America.

In short you haven't answered my question of why you don't think the ps4 can manage first and second year sales similar to the Wii (note, I'm not saying anything about long term sales, and I'm not saying that I think the ps4 WILL do this, all I'm saying is I think there is a decent enough chance for the ps4 to do this, and at the very least I think this years sales will be 14m and next years 20m)

During the months of February to April, the Wii hovered around 200k units sold a week and then from May through October it hovered between 250k and 300k. This is where the Wii will catch up. The Japan PS4 launch will widen the gap but I expect the spring-summer months to be strongly in favor of the Wii.

The ps4 doesn't need to be the ps2, and it's not like the WiiU is putting up much of a fight by doing even worse than the gamecube, and whilst so far the XBO is showing much more fight than than is grandpa sale for the system are already falling to not so great levels (though software coming the next month or so will help the system keep okish base level sales.), it's almost a forgone conclusion that they've lost Japan, and they're taking a tanking in Europe, so much so we may end up with the same situation in Europe as the 360 had in Japan, almost non existant.

The Wii U isn’t putting up much of a fight, that’s true. It will probably end up around the same amount as the original xbox when all is said and done, but I never claimed it did either. The One, however, is bound to sell more than the 360 did in Japan in the European region. The 360 was down to 2000 units as a general baseline in Japan in January/February 2006, that’s clearly a whole lot more dramatic than the One’s current situation in Europe. You’re also discounting two huge factors here; one being the fact that unlike the 360 in Japan, the One has actual sales potential in Europe if certain measures are taken (software, price cut, remove the Kinect etc), I hope you’re not suggesting that the One won’t improve in this region. The other is the guaranteed rise in America, the One will likely be very popular there once it come into its own, calling failures and/or trouble at this point, merely a couple of months after release, is premature to say the least.

Yes, the One will be irrelevant in Japan, what else is new? This won’t stop it from doing decent global lifetime numbers though; there is nothing to suggest that the One won’t outsell the original xbox by far. Thus, the combined sales of the One and Wii U will be considerably higher than the combined sales of xbox + Gamecube. Besides; it’s not like the Wii U and One are the only competition, in case you haven’t noticed; the gaming industry and market is undergoing huge changes and the market for convenience and more casual gaming has all but gone from the home console sector.

I don't care for what the ps2 did long term, I'm talking about what the ps4 is going to do this year and the next, and I'm not saying the ps4 is capable of 20m+ sales for years and years, I think it may break that barrier twice in a row at best.

The point is though, that what the PS2 did long term was a testament to how the market has changed and how different the outlook is in this generation, it is highly relevant when you’re the one claiming it can breach the 20 million barrier to show exactly how difficult that will be without the best possible circumstances (which are not present in the 8^th gen for home consoles at all).

The Wii was the console that broke 24m sales in one year...... Which is what I was arguing about, I think the ps4 with the right software at the right time can break 25m sales in one year....

And like I said; the Wii sold hilariously well in the mass market segment, the very same segment that would have lapped up Guitar Hero, Buzz, Singstar, Eyetoy etc. but who are now off elsewhere to get their fix (smart devices). The PS4 does not have this casual appeal, nor will it ever. And, as mentioned; it does in no way have the same market circumstances that the PS2 did, how is that so hard to see? To break the 25 million barrier, the PS4 would likely need a DS like holiday and average weekly sales for all of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of in excess of 250k, that is incredibly unrealistic. Forget the Wii, forget the PS2; this is not comparable to them at all; the Wii had the casual appeal and the PS2 had the perfect circumstances on all fronts.

I agree the hardware cycle will be shorter this gen, but that's mostly thanks to the obscenely long cylce of last gen, I think this gen will 5/6 years long as per the norm. Again I'm not bothered about what the ps2 did in terms of having a long life span, but if you think developing countries won't be around to help extend the ps4s' life span come the end of the generation I want what your smoking.

Developing markets generally follow the trends of the more matured markets; they’re simply a few years behind on them. With that in mind, it is rather easy to deduce the fact that these markets will be affected by the same splintering as the matured markets; the gaming industry is branching out and becoming a much more partitioned entity. In other words; tablets and phones will have the same effect here as in the matured markets; we’re already seeing how rapid the PS3’s decline is compared to the PS2’s, despite developing markets, the whole global scene has quite simply changed.
Once more, you fail to see the importance of understanding the contributing factors to the PS2’s long life; it was a product of an entirely different time.

Developing markets won’t help the PS4 much at all, probably even less than the PS3 and it certainly won’t contribute to any 20 or 25 million selling years as these sales always occur in the twilight years of the console life cycle.
In other words; developing markets won’t have any effect on the PS4’s ability (or rather: lack thereof) to sell over 20 or 25 million consoles in one year so this whole detour is completely irrelevant at any rate.

And how is this relavant to how the ps4 is going to sell in the future, all that does is help explain the long cycle for last gen, though the fact that both companies bled out of their arse for a few years also contributed to the long cycle as both wanted to make some money back.

I don’t understand what the meaning of this is at all. First you say that if “I think that developing countries won’t contribute to extending the PS4’s lifespan” etc. and then you ask how this is relevant to how the PS4 will sell in the future. How is the impact of developing markets and the lifespan not relevant to how the PS4 is going to sell in the future? Perhaps you just wrote it strangely, I just don’t understand what you mean here.

I don't think we'll see more revisions per say but the time between revisions will be shorter (I expect ps4slim in 2015, superslim in 2017/18 and mini in 2019/20) so one more revision, which I think sony would like to do for the ps3 if not for the Cell amongst various other reasons.

If the time between revisions is shorter, that means we will have more revisions… Again, I don’t understand what you’re trying to accomplish with this bit here.

Also I really don't think that this gen will shrink in term of size like most people seem to assume, as whilst Japan will once again most likely shrink, and North America is likely to stay flat or fall slightly, I don't think Europe will fall at all, and I think Europe will be 100m+ consoles total, for the simple fact that Europe in terms of population is twice the size of North America and has some countries with strong growth (Eastern Europe for the most part) and I think the ROW will also continue to show strong growth as market, in particular South Asia and South America.

Population = sales, right? That’s why the 360 has sold 10 million in Japan like the PS3 and Brazil’s 200 million population is such a great factor in the sales of the PS3 and 360. This is a highly stylistic way of thinking; demographics go way beyond simply tallying up how many people live in any given region, I hope you understand that.
The US alone has more than 25 million PS3 sales while the entire continent of Europe has about 32 million, that’s about 7 million, or about 28% more on a population of 740.000.000 compared to 312.000.000.
Well over twice the population; only 28% more sales.
The fact that the 360 has sold 42 million in the US compared to 25 million in Europe also speak volumes of the importance of factoring in demographics.

Also; like I said earlier, the developing markets are affected by overall market movements. In other words; if there’s an overall contraction in the global market, developing markets will be affected the same, especially when this contraction is due to demographic sway and product focus shift rather than purely economic reasons.

I also find it very strange that you don’t believe that the console market will shrink, especially given the rest of your post, which seems to directly contradict this. Here’s what we know:

1: You don’t believe that the Wii U and One will make for much of a challenge between them for the PS4.

2: You agree that the hardware cycle will be shorter.

3: You think that the PS4 might break the 20 million barrier “twice in a row at best”.

How does the above correlate with a scenario without market contraction? The 7^th generation home consoles will end up at around 285-290 million units sold, that much we know. How will the PS4 manage to keep the market from deflating without breaking the 20 million barrier by a large measure, given that the One and Wii U won’t offer much competition and given a shorter cycle?
If the One manages only 60 million due to tanking in Europe and a shorter cycle and the Wii U ends up at around 25 million or so, that leaves about 200 million consoles for the PS4 to fill, in the span of its lifecycle.
With the previously mentioned lack of longevity due to decreased relevance of developing markets and the overall increased pace of the market itself and a shorter cycle, that would entail at least 5 years in a row with 30-35 million sales or so.
There’s just no way of making this make any kind of sense, I don’t think you should question my smoking habits with this post in mind, to be honest.

If the PS4 manages to break the 20 million barrier twice, and we add in another 50 million or so average for the other three years of main cycle; that leaves the whole argument barren because there simply is no way to prevent a contraction with the totals we end up with.
Either, you have to concede that the Wii U and One will in fact provide a good challenge and raise the overall 8^th generation installed base, or you need to stop subscribing to the belief of a shorter hardware cycle, or you have to abide by the logic of an actual market contraction.
The pieces don’t fit together.
I would also like to remind you of the whole handheld situation, with a Vita that will be lucky to beat 20 million lifetime and a 3DS that will likely end up at around half of the DS’ sales for a total installed base in the 100 million region, very heavily down from the roughly 240 million of the 7^th generation.

In short you haven't answered my question of why you don't think the ps4 can manage first and second year sales similar to the Wii (note, I'm not saying anything about long term sales, and I'm not saying that I think the ps4 WILL do this, all I'm saying is I think there is a decent enough chance for the ps4 to do this, and at the very least I think this years sales will be 14m and next years 20m)

How have I not answered your question on why this scenario is unrealistic? I have provided you with an explanation as to why the Wii and PS2 sold the way they did and how they PS4’s situation is entirely different, I have also talked about the changes in the market that are plain for all to see and the extreme likelihood of a sizeable contraction of the console market, leaving it impossible for any console to emulate the tremendous first year sales of the Wii or the peak years of the PS2.

As for 14 million and 20 million; I’m thinking the PS4 will sell about the same as the PS3’s second full year in 2014 and perhaps numbers around or somewhat above the PS3’s peak year in 2015 (14.5 million or so) and with a relatively flat sales curve and a smaller decline for the main console life cycle than the PS3 (i.e; the five years or so until a new console or solution arrives) but with a sharp drop after the generation officially ends, due to turns in the market overall and on a global scale.

It bears repeating though; thinking that the PS4 can be able to match the Wii’s two first years is delusional in my mind. Today’s market simply won’t allow for such a breakneck pace in home consoles.

Worth pointing out.  Wii had wii sports from day one.  PS4 is selling what it is with no killer app.

PS4 will sale more as the games come.  Having established it self as the console of choice for multiplats. PS4 will get nice bumps through 3rd party releases.  Watchdogs and Destiny especially will likely be huge hardware movers for it this year.  Then you have to factor Sonys own exclusives also having a nice diversity to em.

I dont see wii making up anything may to oct with PS4 geting quite a few really good titles, though it really depands on release dates for the games but im we can agree not everything can release just for the holidays so they are coming sooner not all later.

The fact the Wii had Wii Sports is exactly why I'm banking on the Wii to have a much better spring/summer than the PS4. Wii Sports had a much wider appeal than inFAMOUS: Second Son, Watch_Dogs and Destiny. That single title was enough to convince a horde of non-gamers that they wanted a Wii. The PS4 is not aimed at these people, it's aimed at gamers. Like you said each new title will provide nice bumps along the way but without the casual appeal I don't think it can match the Wii's numbers.

Ill be a few years before it needs legit "casual" appeal to sale.  Right now its the console to game on, still out of stock many places.  You are betting on waggle casuals over gamers sick of the last gen that are eating up the PS4 in record numbers.  I doubt it needs the likes of waggle casuals.  I might agree it would not out sale the wii if it actually had tough legit comp, but right now it lacks that.

Wii at its best sold what it did, PS4 is selling on nothing at all.  Ill bet on the juggernaut thats whoopin ass with nothing fueling its fire, once few games are poured on it, its sales might break more records.

At this point, I think it's best to wait and see who has the right assumptions. For the overall first year on the market, I'm not sure the Wii will pull ahead because of the great lead the PS4 has garnered at launch and the fact it has still to launch in Japan but for the months of May through October, I'm almost 100% sure the Wii will be the biggest seller.

Updated OP, looks like with Japan PS4 might be able to go neck on neck with the Wii for the next few months.