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BOLD PREDICTION: The PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U

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Do you think the PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U?

Yes 431 30.12%
 
No 889 62.12%
 
They'll sell the same ak... 110 7.69%
 
Total:1,430

I doubt, and not because 3DS or Wii U are a factor, or because I'm a Nintendo fanboy. Many are just fooled by the numbers of this generation.

No console will sell as much as its predecesor because we won't see a lot of users with multiple consoles like last generation. A lot have combinations like Wii+360 or PS360 and that won't happen this time in the same magnitude.



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i think there is a chance you're right. wiiU's sales trajectory makes 20M seem like the top end. 3DS's sales trajectory makes it seem like 100M is around the top end. with ps4 it's too early to tell where it is headed but it's doing well enough atm that 120 doesn't seem impossible.

good luck.



I respect your opinion but i don't see that happening.



Well, that's an interesting prediction. I can't imagine the PS4 will sell less than the PS3, and the PS3 should end with around 95-100m. So around 120m-130m might be reasonable for PS4, though it's tough to say this early. 3DS I think will hit at least 100m, but seeing as how it seems to have peaked already, it might not get much more than that. The remaining factor is the Wii U. We'll have to wait to see how the market responds to the software it's getting next year.

At this point it's a shot in the dark, but I don't think it will quite happen. PS4+Vita vs 3DS+Wii U is a much more interesting comparison IMO.



I don't think it will, not because you're underestimating the Wii U or 3DS but rather because you're overestimating the PS4 and the 8th gen in general.

I think this will be a shorter gen with flatter sales curves and a significantly smaller total installed base than the 7th gen, in home consoles and handhelds (the latter being a given at this point) and I see no reason to think that anyone will be able to repliacte the PS2 now or any other generation ahead.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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This might happen.



I see this gen being shorter than the 7th gen so while I do think the PS4 will sell better than the PS3 I don't think it will be on the market as long as the PS3 was. So I expect the PS4 to have similar life time sales to the PS3. And I can see the 3DS doing 90+ so I disagree with the prediction.



Hmmmmm.......



"Games are a trigger for adults to again become primitive, primal, as a way of thinking and remembering. An adult is a child who has more ethics and morals, that's all. When I am a child, creating, I am not creating a game. I am in the game. The game is not for children, it is for me. It is for an adult who still has a character of a child."

 

Shigeru Miyamoto

XBONE will have to max out at 35M and WiiU at 20M for that to be possible but that won't happen



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

I think it'll outsell either, but not both. I think WiiU will reach 51m and 3DS about 100m. PS4 I can see reaching 150m. That's really the best case scenario and factoring in legacy sales for PS4 so I don't know...




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