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Forums - Sales Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: The PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U

 

Do you think the PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U?

Yes 431 30.12%
 
No 889 62.12%
 
They'll sell the same ak... 110 7.69%
 
Total:1,430
Dulfite on 15 June 2017
Aerys said:
So many people thought thé 3DS would reach 80-90M ans the Wii U 30M
And even then, thé PS4 would have zone better

3ds is at 66 million and is selling 11 million per year on average (last year it actually grew), so it will be more than likely 77 million at this point next year (after really good 1st party support Nintendo just announced) which means it only needs to get 3 million more to be in that range you have there (not hard to do). The Wii U on the other hand is dead.



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Dulfite on 15 June 2017
TheBlackNaruto said:
Wow this was a bold prediction indeed that seems like it just might come true! Too bad he is not around to see if it will happen . Was a very good read though and WOW lots of people over shot the Wii U and what it would sell!

I just realized the op was from 2013 (wow!). What happened to the poster?



Barkley on 15 June 2017
Dulfite said:
Aerys said:
So many people thought thé 3DS would reach 80-90M ans the Wii U 30M
And even then, thé PS4 would have zone better

3ds is at 66 million and is selling 11 million per year on average (last year it actually grew), so it will be more than likely 77 million at this point next year (after really good 1st party support Nintendo just announced) which means it only needs to get 3 million more to be in that range you have there (not hard to do). The Wii U on the other hand is dead.

The 3ds only shipped 7.5m 3ds's last year, and this year nintendo plan on shipping just 6m units, there's no way 3ds will be at "likely 77 million this point next year"  when Nintendo have forecasted they'll only have shipped 72m units by March 2018.

Sony have forecasted 78m units shipped by March 2018.



TheBlackNaruto on 15 June 2017
Dulfite said:
Between PS3 and PS4 was like 6.5 years. Let's just round that up to 7. PS4 came out in 2013, so 2020 should be ps5 at the latest, so we have 3 years left. PS4 has sold 60 million so far (right?) but it came out in november so lets just assume it will have sold 62 million by November if not higher, averaged out sells 15.5 million Ps4s a year.

Wii U and 3ds combined sales right now are 80 million (if not higher). The Wii U is fizzling out, but the 3ds is gearing up to launch quite possibly their most popular iteration yet (a true successor to the DS) and launch a bunch of very popular 1st party games this year alone. The 3ds sells on avg. 11 million a year (66 mil divided by 6 years), though last year it actually grew but we will be conservative for now. The 3ds has at least 1 more year of really good support left, maybe even more, but again lets be conservative. Hypothetically if Nintendo doesn't do anything after this next year, thats still puts the 3ds+Wii U total at a minimum of 91 million + before its all said and done.

The Ps4 is at 62 million by November +(15.5x3 years to get to 2020) = 107 million by 2020. Now, if the ps5 launches earlier than the 6.5 year point (which I think is likely), then you have to subtract 15.5 million per year on average. So it may be close, but I made these numbers favor the playstation more and I was more conservative with Nintendo (the 3ds more than likely will have at least 2 more years of good support, plus I didn't calculate any Wii U hardware sales into the combined numbers going forward in the future).

Based on this, I think it is pretty unlikely that the ps4 will outsell the 3ds and Wii U. The only way I could see that happening is if they announce another iteration of the ps4 that will extend its life beyond the 6.5 year point.

I just have to say if the PS4 is at 60.4 million as of june 11th, you think it will sell less than 2million from then until November? That is REALLY low balling it. I don't know that 91 million minimum that you have for the Wii U+3ds I see that as the maximum for some reason might give it 95 million. I just think with the Switch being a hybrid console it will eat away at potential 3ds sales. While the new iteration of the 3DS is coming it has had so many already that I don't see it prologing the sales of the 3DS a whole lot more. I expect a spike but think it will be short lived. That's just my guess though for it.

As for the PS4 this looks to be the peak year so it should at worst match last year for another 10 million for the year seems likely. That puts it at 70+ million starting in 2018. 2018 it should do 12-14 million at worse so around 82-84+ million by the end of 2018. So from 2019 going forward it would have to sell a minimum of 10-12 million for the rest of its life in order to outsell the 3DS+Wii U. I think that the PS4 will 100% outsell the 3DS+Wii U looking at it like that. But hey as this gen has shown ANYTHING can happen.

Dulfite said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
Wow this was a bold prediction indeed that seems like it just might come true! Too bad he is not around to see if it will happen . Was a very good read though and WOW lots of people over shot the Wii U and what it would sell!

I just realized the op was from 2013 (wow!). What happened to the poster?

I know 2013 that was a crazy prediction back then!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Dulfite on 15 June 2017
Barkley said:
Dulfite said:

3ds is at 66 million and is selling 11 million per year on average (last year it actually grew), so it will be more than likely 77 million at this point next year (after really good 1st party support Nintendo just announced) which means it only needs to get 3 million more to be in that range you have there (not hard to do). The Wii U on the other hand is dead.

The 3ds only shipped 7.5m 3ds's last year, and this year nintendo plan on shipping just 6m units, there's no way 3ds will be at "likely 77 million this point next year"  when Nintendo have forecasted they'll only have shipped 72m units by March 2018.

Sony have forecasted 78m units shipped by March 2018.

I stand corrected



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Turkish on 15 June 2017

Good prediction, there is a pattern of overpredicting Nintendo hardware on this site. Earlier pages thought 3DS would lock 100M, Wii U would be anywhere between 20 to 50M.

In 2008 some Nintendo fans thought Wii would sell 200 million...



tak13 on 15 June 2017
Turkish said:
Good prediction, there is a pattern of overpredicting Nintendo hardware on this site. Earlier pages thought 3DS would lock 100M, Wii U would be anywhere between 20 to 50M.

In 2008 some Nintendo fans thought Wii would sell 200 million...

 Why not? Sony was expecting  ps3 to sell 150m faster than PS2, in the time that ps3 was 500-600.

Even giant corporations make crazy predictions!

 

There are many people who think that ps4 will manage ps2-like sales and switch selling somewhat more than wii u but of course the only pattern here is overpredicting Nintendo hardware...

 

Also, remember this thread was made in December 2013... ( I point that out mainly for 3DS)



tak13 on 15 June 2017
Hiku said:
I was wondering how that was a bold prediction until I saw the date. And the replies. lol
Well at that point in time I think I estimated WiiU around 20-25m, so I would probably have said something similar.

Mine too, expecting price drops of course...

Well wii u  could have made the 20m+ if it had lived more... Who would have thought in 2013-2014 that Nintendo would killed it in 2016!

 

 



A7XRayDog247 on 15 June 2017

Honestly rethinking it, depending upon when Sony feels the need to release the PS5, the PS4 could actually outsell the WiiU+3DS. And tbh if it does I think it'd be warranted, it is a very quality console.



tak13 on 15 June 2017
oniyide said:
In people's defense, no one thought Wii U would do that bad, even the most pessimistic people.

No one thought how early Nintendo  would kill it and that they would never reduce its price...

 

Also, 3DS sales trend was for a 95-100m selling console as of 2013! Oddly enough, Dernebel predicted exactly the decline.

Although,  becoming acquainted with dernebel in late 2014, I'm not sure if that was a prediction or a wishful thinking...