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Forums - Gaming Discussion - ioi speaks out about ergh "VGC analysts"

I wonder what some of the users want? Would they be happy if ioi posted a dude in front of every game store around the world counting every game sold manually?



 

Face the future.. Gamecenter ID: nikkom_nl (oh no he didn't!!) 

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ioi said:

If we added a page similar to this - http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/guide-to-sampling-error?_s=4 - and linked to it at the bottom of every chart on VGChartz then would that help to make things clearer?


I think thats a good idea. It would hopefully start to stop the same things being brought up every other Week, but then youd actually need people to click on it. Maybe have it at the top of the page next to/ above/ below the "Global Weekly Chart".

I still think the quotes I posted here are great and go a long way to explaining VGChartz numbers. Something similar to them to go along with another methodology page like the barb one I feel would go a long way towards stopping the cries of adjustments and people taking the numbers here as facts, creating scenes like were seeing in this thread.

Honestly, I think a lot of the complaining from users who are actually here is simply down to a mix of taking the site too seriously and ignorance regarding the numbers themselves.



                            

NiKKoM said:
I wonder what some of the users want? Would they be happy if ioi posted a dude in front of every game store around the world counting every game sold manually?


Only one dude? Not good enough 'm'fraid.



                            

ioi said:
MaskedBandit2 said:

You cannot take such a tiny portion of a market and balloon it out to a precise and exact number to the nearest unit and rank them.

Let me put the ball in your court then. Tell me how you would do it. Here is some hypothetical raw data for three games:

Game 1

Week 1 - 984
Week 2 - 411
Week 3 - 219



Game 2

Week 1 - 477
Week 2 - 341
Week 3 - 356

 

Game 3

Week 1 - 147
Week 2 - 115
Week 3 - 99

Now assume that the data comes from a sample that represents 0.5% of the total population. Can you demonstrate to me how you would present the weekly chart for those 3 games for those 3 weeks in a way that you feel would make you happy.


Is there any standard way to represent the standard deviation for your model?  I guess my issue is right now what's being reported is only the peak of the curve that is being modeled based on previous comparisons but I personally at least would appreciate some kind of estimation as to how the curve that peak is part of looks in general.  Would reporting the standard deviation for the bell curve be a standard practice or is there something else that's often used?  Maybe reporting the 95% confidence range or something of that nature.  



...

Aielyn said:
MaskedBandit2 said:

http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/how-we-do-what-we-do

This is a better page to include - an actual, detailed explanation for how the data is gathered.

And again, you didn't respond to me directly, so I'll say it again - You cannot take such a tiny portion of a market (if you're even getting any data for a particular title during that week, which I highly doubt you can receive for every game out there) and balloon it out to a precise and exact number to the nearest unit and rank them.  I don't care what page is added, it's impossible and the final figures appear misleading because of it.  It's a matter of integrity and professionalism.  It's one thing if you're covering the majority of a particular market and you can say with reasonable confidence one game sold X amount over the other, but that's not the case here.

I'm guessing you haven't studied statistics.

Sampling works exactly as ioi has described, and the resulting numbers are typically scaled up directly (plus adjustments for known biases), rather than rounding roughly. Why? Because every time you round, you lose further information. And then when you sum over a lot of numbers, the error gets worse. Sampling error is bad enough as it is, you don't want to make it worse with rounding.

Sampling error itself follows a fairly simple rule. To work out the margin of error for a 95% confidence interval, for a large population, you can approximate it using 0.98/sqrt(n), where n is the number of samples. So, for that BARB thing, a sample of 11,000 will provide a margin of error of 0.93%. But they'll still note that Strictly Come Dancing got 11.07 million, despite the 0.07 being within the margin of error. And they'll still list The One Show on Tuesday having higher ratings than The One Show on Monday despite the difference being 0.01 million, well below the margin of error.

The reason is that people like things ranked. It's not the purpose of the site to rank them, but to provide the numbers. The ranking is for regular users, and makes for a bit more enjoyment from debating the numbers.

Oh, I have studied statistics somewhat.  What I'm saying is that the starting data is so small and insignificant, you cannot rationally expand it out to the nearest unit (or even 100s of units, possibly even 1000s) and rank titles.  The data is just not there to support it.  Unless I'm wrong, I have to imagine the differences in many of the reported publishings start out as miniscule.  There is too much uncertainty to say one title sold X,XXX,XXX units.  That's why the numbers are inherently misleading - because you don't have the data to support the precise findings.  If you want to make the numbers seem like an estimate, as already stated, a better publishing would be to round the numbers.  The numbers themselves would then imply doubt and imply a range of possible values.  I think it would help credibility.  Whether or not you want to keep the precise numbers in use internally for weekly additions or not, I don't know.  But to me, the data collected is too small to measure out on a global scale. 

ioi said:
MaskedBandit2 said:

http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/how-we-do-what-we-do

This is a better page to include - an actual, detailed explanation for how the data is gathered.

And again, you didn't respond to me directly, so I'll say it again - You cannot take such a tiny portion of a market (if you're even getting any data for a particular title during that week, which I highly doubt you can receive for every game out there) and balloon it out to a precise and exact number to the nearest unit and rank them.  I don't care what page is added, it's impossible and the final figures appear misleading because of it.  It's a matter of integrity and professionalism.  It's one thing if you're covering the majority of a particular market and you can say with reasonable confidence one game sold X amount over the other, but that's not the case here. 


Well I have already responded to this in the post directly above yours. Every other organisation does the same thing - present a number which represents the midpoint of a range of potential values - why do you feel that VGChartz is being unprofessional in doing the same thing? It's just the same convention that everyone else uses.

What would your suggestion be as to how we do the top 20 for this chart then for example - http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41623/Global/?

And yes, we do get data for more than 5000 unique titles each week. Most of the process is automated which is why errors can sometimes creep in with games being incorrectly combined, showing data before they are actually released (mistakedly counting pre-order data as sell-through) and so on but yes, we do collect raw data each week for more than 5000 games and extrapolate it all up.

I honestly don't know what to do with a chart like that.  You could possibly still "rank" them, but by using more general numbers, there would be a lot more "ties."  What you'd end up with is a chart with very clear estimated numbers that shows a likely, general overview of the market.  I really don't know.

The data gathering explanation page, though, I think, would go a long way in establishing credibility.  Right now, the methodology page is way too vague.  I'm just going to say right now that by reading it, I don't get a very positive impression of the methods and the numbers you're finding, and I'm probably not the only one.  How many retail partners do you have?  How many stores are you sampling data from?  Are these worldwide?  How do you represent regional differences?  Do you have a wide range of stores representing different market interests?  How many end users do you poll?  When do you poll them?  What's the demographic of these end users?  How are you controlling bias? 

My answer to all of those is negative.  Because you don't explain and answer possible questions, I automatically assume it's because it would damage your repuation.  So, I assume you don't have many retail partners.  You don't collect data from very many stores, especially many different ones on a widespread, regional level.  There aren't many end users surveyed.  The ones that are polled are likely video game enthusiasts, likely frequenting this site.  It seems very disorderly and not on a systematic level.  Whether any of that's true or not, I don't know.  But that's the impression I get.  So, I think, expanding on that page would go a long way in helping the site. 

EDIT:  This took awhile, and I got behind.  I'll answer your other post in a bit. 



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Carl2291 said:
ioi said:

If we added a page similar to this - http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/guide-to-sampling-error?_s=4 - and linked to it at the bottom of every chart on VGChartz then would that help to make things clearer?


I think thats a good idea. It would hopefully start to stop the same things being brought up every other Week, but then youd actually need people to click on it. Maybe have it at the top of the page next to/ above/ below the "Global Weekly Chart".

I still think the quotes I posted here are great and go a long way to explaining VGChartz numbers. Something similar to them to go along with another methodology page like the barb one I feel would go a long way towards stopping the cries of adjustments and people taking the numbers here as facts, creating scenes like were seeing in this thread.

Honestly, I think a lot of the complaining from users who are actually here is simply down to a mix of taking the site too seriously and ignorance regarding the numbers themselves.


Yeah I learned not to take this site seriously after a few months of seeing how off the numbers were. I used to wonder why people would say "Lol Vgchartz" I guess now I know why.



hiimnew said:
Carl2291 said:
ioi said:

If we added a page similar to this - http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/guide-to-sampling-error?_s=4 - and linked to it at the bottom of every chart on VGChartz then would that help to make things clearer?


I think thats a good idea. It would hopefully start to stop the same things being brought up every other Week, but then youd actually need people to click on it. Maybe have it at the top of the page next to/ above/ below the "Global Weekly Chart".

I still think the quotes I posted here are great and go a long way to explaining VGChartz numbers. Something similar to them to go along with another methodology page like the barb one I feel would go a long way towards stopping the cries of adjustments and people taking the numbers here as facts, creating scenes like were seeing in this thread.

Honestly, I think a lot of the complaining from users who are actually here is simply down to a mix of taking the site too seriously and ignorance regarding the numbers themselves.


Yeah I learned not to take this site seriously after a few months of seeing how off the numbers were. I used to wonder why people would say "Lol Vgchartz" I guess now I know why.


No, people say "lol VGC" largely because they are ignorant.

The numbers here can be taken as they are - Estimations. The problem arises when people/sites claim VGC numbers as factual. Theyre not factual, no numbers are from NPD or Chart-track or wherever... Theyre all estimates.

A large portion of the shit VGC gets from the "outside world" comes from GAF users spreading FUD from YEARS ago. The vast majority of it is unwarranted and bandwagoning.



                            

ioi said:

The whole reason why we don't quote a particular range or have something like your radio button ideas is because we can't. There is no way to calculate it other than to do a study and compare our data to other data over a certain period and use that as a base to produce a set of confidence levels and ranges. There is no mathematical way for us to calculate it, it would have to be done entirely empirically.

Couldn't you do such a study continously? Would it be very time consuming to do it once and update it weekly? Or isn't there any reliable source that also publishes the results on a weekly basis?

 

ioi said:

It isn't a lack of wanting to communicate, believe me, rather that I don't see an alternative to how we do it at present other than to put everything togther from this thread and others onto one page and link to it at the bottom of every single chart we publish which seems like overkill to me when the majority of people (and certainly the majority of people in the industry) already understand.

To gather and summarize the info from this thread and others onto one page seems a good idea to me. And I don't see the idea of link it to every chart to be overkill. A small and sober link at the bottom of every chart wouldn't hurt anyone or anything. But that's not the only possibility either. You could place the link at the header or footer of the site (but something that could be noticed as the place where the numbers are explained and that page would be exclusively to talk about that).

 

ioi said:

As I've said previously, I don't think we are acting any differently to any other similar service. These pages:

don't make a point on-page about confidence levels, error margins etc

Well, they must be doing something. Look at what Wikipedia says about them:

- "Media Create is a Japanese company that "gathers and analyzes data from the digital entertainment industry, specifically focusing on the Japanese console gaming market. Business operations include publishing, market research and consulting."[1] It is a popular website for people interested in learning the latest video game software and hardware sales figures from Japan [...] Media Create competes with Enterbrain's Famitsu and MediaWorks' Dengeki PlayStation in the market for providing Japanese game sales data. Because there are three different tracking firms, there will always be three different sales numbers for any software and hardware title. Which company to trust is a matter of debate, as none of the three major trackers are ever 100% accurate and whoever tracks the highest amount of sales for a given title fluctuates."

- "The Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (BARB) is the organisation that compiles audience measurement and television ratings in the United Kingdom. It was created in 1977 to replace a previous systems whereby ITV ratings were compiled by JICTAR (Joint Industry Committee for Television Audience Research), whilst the BBC did their own audience research. BARB is jointly owned by the BBC, the ITV companies, Channel 4, Channel 5, BSkyB, and the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising. Participating viewers have a box on top of their TV sets which tracks the programmes they watch [...] BARB's current research contracts have been awarded to three different market research companies: RSMB, Ipsos MORI, and Kantar Media. The contracts run from January 2010 to the end of 2015, with options to extend further. RSMB are responsible for survey design, quality control and calculation methodology. Ipsos MORI's role is to survey the characteristics of the television owning population, including an element of direct recruitment to the viewing panel. Kantar Media is responsible for establishing and maintaining the new BARB viewing panel. It has a separate contract covering meter panel installation, data retrieval, processing and audience reporting functions"

- "Box Office Mojo is a website that tracks box office revenue in a systematic, algorithmic way. Brandon Gray started the site in 1999. In 2002, Gray partnered with Sean Saulsbury and they grew the site to nearly two million readers when,[2] in July 2008, the company was purchased by Amazon.com through its subsidiary, the Internet Movie Database [...] The international section covers the weekly box office of 50 territories and includes historical box office information from three more, as well as provides information for box office results for individual movies from up to 107 territories. The site also creates an overall weekend chart, combining all box office returns from around the world, excluding the United States and Canada. The overall weekend chart currently tracks the Top 40 films as well as approximately fifty additional films with no ranking."

- "Famitsu is a line of Japanese video game magazines published by Enterbrain, Inc. and Tokuma. Currently, there are five Famitsū magazines: Shūkan Famitsū, Famitsū PS3 + PSP, Famitsū Xbox 360, Famitsū DS+Wii, and Famitsū Wave DVD. Shūkan Famitsū, the original Famitsū publication, is considered the most widely read and respected video game news magazine in Japan."

There isn't a single word about unreliable numbers or controversy. Now see what they say about VGChartz:

"While offering some information about their methodology through their website,[5] VGChartz does not publish any sources on how they get their data. Some sites, including Gamasutra and Wired News, have questioned the reliability of the information presented by the site.[4][6] VGChartz has defended the credibility and reliability of its sales data,[7] often comparing their numbers with the ones published by NPD Group,[8] although some charts have been retroactively adjusted to better match NPD's monthly reports."

Why do you think that happens?

 

ioi said:
I don't think they are intending to mislead readers that there will be margins of error associated, and neither is VGChartz. Do you know what error margins or confidence levels any of those figures represent?

No, I don't. But then my question is: are their methods as controversial as yours? They seem to be tracking numbers, you do something different.

 

ioi said:

Barb for example (like Nielson in the USA) uses a panel of users with a box connected to their TV to estimate TV viewing figures in the UK. Their sample is around 11,000 people out of 60 million in the UK - less than 0.02% of the total population so their error margins would be on a comparable level to VGChartz.

If we added a page similar to this - http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/guide-to-sampling-error?_s=4 - and linked to it at the bottom of every chart on VGChartz then would that help to make things clearer?

That would definitely help, but they are just talking about Sampling Error. They also have this page - http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/how-we-do-what-we-do - and this FAQ - http://www.barb.co.uk/resources/reference-documents/faq

There needs to be a comprehensive explanation in my opinion and a FAQ helps too.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

ioi said:

The only reason there has ever been any questions raised over VGChartz numbers is because of the relationship we have with GAF and the misinformation that they spread back in 2005 - 2007 when VGChartz was first launched. This is a personal issue that stems from the fact that I used to post on GAF and fell out with some of the users on there when I pointed out that a lot of the existing data was flawed and wanted to do a better job by starting VGChartz. Had none of that happened and VGChartz just came out of the blue then none of this would exist. The backlash is a direct result of the enormous rise in popularity that the site had when it first launched since it offered something that was truly unique and filled a gap in the market. The users of GAF and other related sites couldn't get their head around it.

When a representative from Nielson, Bloomberg etc gets in touch to work with us they don't bring up any issues and treat us as they treat any other data partner. It is only on the realms of internet forums, N4G etc that these issues seem to exist. Believe me, I have spent a number of years trying to explain and defend the site but at the end of the day there is no point. Each week our latest chart gets posted on at least 50 different forums, we get more than 4 million unique users each month and have more than 30 professional data partners who subscribe to and use our data - I don't have the time or indeed the inclination to keep trying to convince people who are too narrow-minded to understand and will probably never get it! Things are going just fine as it is.

If that's true, I kind of understand your first reaction to the "hostile" users of this thread. I was having an impression about you that's probably far from being true. Still, you should always try to treat your community respectfully no matter what. Positive behaviour generates positive behaviour. And, after all, this is your userbase, your "baby". How do you want it to be when it "grows up"? Like in a company, the environment of a website is defined from top to bottom. You are at the top, so you are the first one responsible for the community to be what it is (regardless whether I think it's good or bad).

But, out of curiosity, why do you think the existing data at that moment was flawed and why those GAF members got mad when you said such a thing? And does IGN has anything to do with that?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95
Ferrari said:

I can relate to the ranking being really incoerent even if we had just 5% of error, when accumulating the error for all items in the ranking it can get misplaced, but is that what really bothers you? And as brett put their top 10 were really close to NPD.

If the error was just about 5%, between VG Chartz numbers and reality, each game of the top 10 couldn't move more than 2 places. That's already a ranking I can look at without thinking "this could be totally different" (as the one we have now that the 1st could very well be 9th and the 9th could very well be 1st). When I say "could very well be", I'm estimating such scenario and similar ones to account for 30% of the cases. Moreover, if the error was just about 5%, I could look at a recent number without thinking "this could be half...or 3 times more than that" (and in this case I'm never out of the 95% confidence range, so I'm not considering extreme cases, as you tried to make it seem). Instead, it would be "this could be a little less (95%) or a little more (105%)". See the difference? It's a hell of a difference.

With this I don't want to criticize the numbers or the methodology used. I think VG Chartz does a good and unique job and I understand that it comes to a point where shortening the confidence ranges can only be achieved by using bigger samples and ultimately this is a Accuracy-vs-Investment trade-off that needs to be balanced. The problem is not there and I can praise VG Chartz's methods and positioning as many times as needed for you to understand that in most of the cases I'm on VG Chartz's side when the rest of the videogaming industry despises it. The problem is in communication, since VG Chartz misleads newcomers (including relevant videogaming stakeholders). Some will dig in until they find how VG Chartz really works and what can they expect from the numbers they see, others won't. VG Chartz still has to learn how to pass a complex message in a simple and accessible way, and there are various alternatives for doing so. Most of them could even be subliminar messages (including the way the numbers are presented) while others could be a simple tutorial eventually with a FAQ linked to a big area at the head of every page saying "Where the numbers come from" (rather than a tiny link at the footer saying "About Us" and that presents VG Chartz's history...somewhere in the middle should be a little and incomplete explanation about the numbers).

What does bother me? This:

1 - People's stubbornness to acknowledge VG Chartz's limitations. What it really does, what it doesn't. What can be actually expect from the numbers, what we should be careful at.

2 - The way VG Chartz presents its results and the lack of willingness to make all the (or at least the major) videogaming stakeholders to understand VG Chartz's value-added contributions towards the industry.

3 - The combination of point 1 and 2 generate rivalry between the sites (like it's happening between IGN and VG Chartz) both at administration and community levels, when it should be the opposite (sites should help each other). After all, we are on the internet and, as the very name tells, it's a net, not a place full of fortifications.

4 - People willing to give insights about VG Chartz being mistreated by the owner of the snd that reaction being further support. ther users. I don't care if there was incorrect behaviour from the other side in the first place. Flamebait shouldn't be fought with flamebait and the site admin should lead by example.

Yep I undersTand and agree with most of your points. And clearness is always Better.



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