If anyone wants to make a bet on whether or not vita will being the highest handheld in Japan in 2014, I will take the 3DS side and you can have the Vita side. Any stakes are on the table. Let me know.

Possible, I think the Vita will start outselling the 3DS by Q3. In 2014 it will finally have a large array of exclusives. the momentum will probably carry on into 2015 with Digimon and Gravity Rush 2 already announced. I could imagine Square Enix and capcom finally giving the Vita some love.

It's out for 9 years, not 10. It's easy to see that the average is more than 2 million a year. ;)

Calendar years. Since the topic of discussion is 2014, and not "FY2014" or some variant thereof, we care about the calendar year.

9 years + 16 days in japan... you round that up to 10 years?

dont count on it. nintendo owns the holidays (Q4) and on top of that Vita big games known so far are coming March-May next year.

Keep in mind nintendo is very tight lip about everything meaning they dont announce some big games intill its almost released. examples are PokemonXY/M+L RPG/LoZ WW HD/NSLU/LoZ ALBW Were just mentioned this year. Also kirby was just announced 2 months ago and is coming out there in 2 weeks.

Mypoint is we dont kno wen nintendo will announce a game and theres a chance it'll release within 3-6 months!

I don´t think they even think it is possible that PSV will outsell 3DS. They are just acting out of spite like little children.

http://www.itproportal.com/2011/03/29/nintendo-3ds-manufacturing-cost-over-100-per-unit/

Actually it's likely much lower now. 100 dollars back in 2011. The parts are cheaper now, so it's probably less than 90. The 2DS probably costs 50 dollars to make. (guess)

Meanwhile:

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/playstation-vita-cost-estimated-at-160-in-report/

To be correct it says over 100$. Also you seem to ignore that the PSV estimate is really old as well, dating back to early 2012. We know that Sony used mass produced cellphone parts which are also known to fall in price really quickly. In Japan we have also to consider that they reduced the costs even further with the release of PSV-2000 that replaces the OLED screen with a cheaper LCD screen.

But this year it couldn't manage to do 500k and only 800k in 2012... so it did 18.7M in late 2004-2011 wich is 2.7M per year, it could've easily done 4M in some year probably 2008-9 (too lazy to check).

I just thought that maybe that now, Vita is on the same price as a 3DS XL, New Model, better performance, and strong titles ahead. It could just maybe do 3.5M and be closely above 3DS, (I know 4M is a bit higher at this stage).