Forums - Nintendo Discussion - My Wii U estimation(near future, instal base, short)...

As you saw latest Media Create Sales and how there is a trend of Wii U sales rising even though sadly VG Chartz still hasn't gave their rough estimation for last two weeks thus making an accurate estimation or to be more correct the expectaction for Wii U in near future when comes to total units sold. In my estimation I also try to estimate how much units will be sold when that or that game is released in that or that month also if it will have an effect in the next month...

Wii U should by now be at 5 million units and by end of the year it should breach 5.5 million mark of total units sold from its launch last year.... By end of Janurary it should reach 6 million while by end of February will breach mark of 6.75 million units. March it should achieve at least 7.25 million without any major release, in case Mario Kart 8 is released then I expect at least to reach 7.75 to 8.5 million total units ...

I expect Wii U to reach an instal base of at least 12.5 million in worst case scenario and 18 million in best case scenario by end of 2014 as more high profile software is getting released on Wii U such as Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros U, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Yarn Yoshi and more  upcoming exclusives being unveiled for 2014 release....



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wtf, wii U did 2.2 mill in 11months and 1 week this year but you expect it to do 1.25mill in two months next year without any major release because it got a boost during the holidays this year?



chapset said:
wtf

What? Hmmm... You can't understand what I am talking about...? Y_Y <_< >_> O_O X_



chapset said:

wtf, wii U did 2.2 mill in 11months and 1 week this year but you expect it to do 1.25mill in two months next year without any major release because it got a boost during the holidays this year?


Oh... You edited your reply... Okay...

I don't expect that because of holidays as you assume, I expect it because of now well enstablished library and because Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze is out in February 12/13 in Japan and February 21 in North America, don't know about European release. Not counting that it has advantage over competition as....

Wii U is 300$ with a single or more games packed in and does not require a subscription for online/multiplayer... PlayStation 4 is 400$ without a single or more games packed in and requires a subscription for online/multiplayer including specific features(+50$)... Xbox One is 500$ without a single or more games packed in and requires a subscription for online/multiplayer including specific features(+60$)...

Wii U is the cheapest console with now enstablished library versus the new comers(ofcourse)... Also its gamepad is full of various useful features like camera, microphone, IR that gives gamepads abiliity to act as a TV's remote and so on.

Just because it did poorly in first year does not mean that it will continue that way, PlayStation 3 did poorly in its couple of years and it rose from the ashes when 300$ PlayStation 3 Slim was out... Nintendo will drop Wii U's price to 250$ in Q4 2014 or Q2/Q3/Q4 2015 once the software sales are good enough that they can again bite the bullet. Currently it is not economically viable for them to do so and I feel sad when people say it should be 200-250$ because they are used to Nintendo's console to be priced at 200$ like they did since like forever.

PlayStation 2 was underpowered and costed far more than Gamecube and it didn't stop it from dominating because of its generated "uber" hype and people that got "scared" of gamecube's design because it was different than competition. I love how people want Nintendo to make games for adults, Nintendo did that with Gamecube and "nobody" bought those games and the console its self. If people really want for Nintendo to go hardcore then buy those kind of games on their platform en masse and then you will see adult games made by Nintendo themself and then you will see Nintendo making a machine with beastly specifications/power...

You had the Gamecube, Nintendo made a move and people failed... Its their fault not yours... Well this is off topic, Il probably make a new thread about that.



i dont think so. i still think 12m is possible by Jan 2015. but its not probable. 11m its my bet.

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eyeofcore said:

As you saw latest Media Create Sales and how there is a trend of Wii U sales rising even though sadly VG Chartz still hasn't gave their rough estimation for last two weeks thus making an accurate estimation or to be more correct the expectaction for Wii U in near future when comes to total units sold. In my estimation I also try to estimate how much units will be sold when that or that game is released in that or that month also if it will have an effect in the next month...

Wii U should by now be at 5 million units and by end of the year it should breach 5.5 million mark of total units sold from its launch last year.... By end of Janurary it should reach 6 million while by end of February will breach mark of 6.75 million units. March it should achieve at least 7.25 million without any major release, in case Mario Kart 8 is released then I expect at least to reach 7.75 to 8.5 million total units ...

I expect Wii U to reach an instal base of at least 12.5 million in worst case scenario and 18 million in best case scenario by end of 2014 as more high profile software is getting released on Wii U such as Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros U, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Yarn Yoshi and more  upcoming exclusives being unveiled for 2014 release....

 

7.50 million by march?

18 million by end of 2014?

lol...

I say Wii U might have a chance of reaching 10, maybe 11 million by end of 2014 in best case scenario.




Outside of the holidays this year Wii U couldn't even touch 100k a week... and until that happens I'm not buying your estimations. I can see it reaching 10 million by the end of next year



supernihilist said:
i dont think so. i still think 12m is possible by Jan 2015. but its not probable. 11m its my bet.


You are being skeptical, you would have been right if Nintendo was not releasing any major triple A title at all in 2014 yet there is Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros. U, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Embled(hardcore JRPG) and couple of others...

Bayonetta 2 and Monolith Soft's X are huge also... So I doubt that they would not spike the sales of the Wii U.

Thus I am looking forward watching you eat crow meat...



Turkish said:
eyeofcore said:

As you saw latest Media Create Sales and how there is a trend of Wii U sales rising even though sadly VG Chartz still hasn't gave their rough estimation for last two weeks thus making an accurate estimation or to be more correct the expectaction for Wii U in near future when comes to total units sold. In my estimation I also try to estimate how much units will be sold when that or that game is released in that or that month also if it will have an effect in the next month...

Wii U should by now be at 5 million units and by end of the year it should breach 5.5 million mark of total units sold from its launch last year.... By end of Janurary it should reach 6 million while by end of February will breach mark of 6.75 million units. March it should achieve at least 7.25 million without any major release, in case Mario Kart 8 is released then I expect at least to reach 7.75 to 8.5 million total units ...

I expect Wii U to reach an instal base of at least 12.5 million in worst case scenario and 18 million in best case scenario by end of 2014 as more high profile software is getting released on Wii U such as Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros U, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Yarn Yoshi and more  upcoming exclusives being unveiled for 2014 release....

 

7.50 million by march?

18 million by end of 2014?

lol...

I say Wii U might have a chance of reaching 10, maybe 11 million by end of 2014 in best case scenario.


It is 7.25 million for Mach by my personal estimation which is achieavble and it is in worst case scenario 12.5 million and best case scenario is 18 million by end of 2014, that is why I have worst and best case scenario. Your estimation is way too easy, it is nice for you for ignoring the power that exclusives that each console has, thus by your standard we should ignore all exclusives that each console has from our estimation. Good job for you.



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eyeofcore said:
supernihilist said:
i dont think so. i still think 12m is possible by Jan 2015. but its not probable. 11m its my bet.


You are being skeptical, you would have been right if Nintendo was not releasing any major triple A title at all in 2014 yet there is Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros. U, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Embled(hardcore JRPG) and couple of others...

Bayonetta 2 and Monolith Soft's X are huge also... So I doubt that they would not spike the sales of the Wii U.

Thus I am looking forward watching you eat crow meat...

hey listen, i wish WiiU would sell 200m by Jan 2015, trust me, i love the system and Nintendo, but i cant see WiiU doing more than 7m even with those heavy hitters.

Honestly, 11-12m by Jan 2015 would be ideal, and would put Nintendo in a good position to battle against X1 and PS4 first years and gain some early marketshare.