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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales week 51 (Dec 16 - Dec 22)

tbone51 on 26 December 2013
Kresnik said:
tbone51 said:

did you read my entire post? the original one you cut out? i listed big games and stated that even if they arent on MH/pokemon level, they  are still big titles!

Then i edited my post claiming that like this time last year we didn't kno all the games that were coming in 2013! Thats why i put some possibilities. Dunno why your acting like i was wrong?

Edit: I psted this "As of now big games we now of are Kirby TD, Mario Party, Mario Golf, BD2, Yoshi's New Island, Game Center CX, Fossil Fighters 2, Dragon Quest terry  2, Super Smash Bros for 3DS, Theatrythym FF, Persona Q, and alot more."

Also LoZ+PDZ will have most of their sales in 2014  especially LoZ since its only 1 week of sales in 2013!


Yes, and apart from Dragon Quest & Smash they're all sort of mid-level games.  Which is fine.  They'd be 'big' selling titles on say, Vita, comparative to the rest of its library.  But Vita is selling ~ 1m per year in Japan.  3DS is selling ~ 5m per year.  You can see why there's a difference, surely?

And yes, we don't know what's coming in 2014.  And so far, aside from Smash, nothing really 'big' has been announced yet.  We can speculate on all the possibly this and maybe thats under the sun, but so far we don't have a lot.  Which is what Ryuzaki said.


Ok. Thats not fair at all. All the games i listed are big. You guys are just picking the biggest ones. Thats like saying if a game doesn't sell 5mil+ WW it isnt big! :-/

Vita has big games even if most of them dont sell past 200k lifetime. I put games that are going to sell 100k-500k which are big. I dont see why nintendo big is necessarily 1mil+. Than that means 3DS has no big games  aside from 6-7 in japan 



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smbu2000 on 26 December 2013
Kongfucius said:
Hmm, WiiU continuing to get larger than expected xmas boosts, of course you could say that it bloody well needs them but at least it's giving a cause for some optimism for embattled Nintendo fans

PSV also chugging along steadily, nothing spectacular though. Big 3DS software sales, both PDZ and LM2 are in with a shot at 1m in 2013, though it'll be a big ask for hardware to hit 5m YTD (it needs to sell ~320k in Week 52 which traditionally sees a slight drop from 51 - doesn't look like it'll happen)

Shin Gundam Musou is slightly disappointing, even after adjusting my expectations downwards it still did worse than I thought. For the record I was thinking 150k for PS3 and 60k for PSVm thinking that the sales would expand slightly over 2 userbases. It isn't awful though, here are some figures from Vgchartz (SGM figures from MC)

[PS3] Gundam Musou - 174,638 / 306,015
[PS3] Gundam Musou 2 - 176,241 / 315,108
[PS3] Gundam Musou 3 - 189,271 / 363,724
[PS3] Shin Gundam Musou - 126,019
[PSV] Shin Gundam Musou - 52,667
[PS3+PSV] Shin Gundam Musou - 178,686

So basically there was a consistant pattern of moderate growth but now there is slight fall with Shin Gundam Musou, albeit within the same ballpark as the first two games. It's not disasterous and given the high levels of potential fatigue for both Gundam and Musou fans, I think N-B should take these OK, even if it took 2 SKU's to do it

However, it should be noted that using the Famitsu numbers it did a bit worse - PS3=113,493, PSV=44,889, Total=158,382, or 20k less than MC says. Of course digital may boost these but given that the numbers we've had showed only marginal increases for titles even on PSV, I wouldn't count on large proportions of DL sales. Then again who knows? We may be surprised

You didn't include the sales from the 360 versions of the previous games? It's probably not too much, but still worth adding to the total. (There is no 360 version of Shin Gundam Musou.) I own the 360 versions of Gundam Musou 2 and Gundam Musou 3.

I just wish they'd used the cel-shading again for the new one, Shin Gundam Musou, that they used with GM3. I don't like how they've gone back to the old look, as it's definitely a step backwards, IMO. That's why I'm not picking up SGM even though I have a PS3 and Vita.




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AZWification on 26 December 2013

            Wii Party U deserves credit as well. It's one of the main reasons the Wii U even started to sell well  in Japan to begin with.



                
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Kresnik on 26 December 2013
tbone51 said:

Ok. Thats not fair at all. All the games i listed are big. You guys are just picking the biggest ones. Thats like saying if a game doesn't sell 5mil+ WW it isnt big! :-/

Vita has big games even if most of them dont sell past 200k lifetime. I put games that are going to sell 100k-500k which are big. I dont see why nintendo big is necessarily 1mil+. Than that means 3DS has no big games  aside from 6-7 in japan 


Okay.  Let's go back to the beginning then Tbone.  Ryuzaki said:

ryuzaki57 said:
3DS is definitely beginning its decline though. Not beating last year's LTD with this year's line up is rather surprising, and there's hardly anything big for 2014 so far.

You then assaulted him with a list of "big" games.

The point, to me, has been that 3DS has been selling extremely well for the past 3 years thanks to actually big games (Mario Kart/3D World; Animal Crossing/NSMB; Pokemon/Monster Hunter) and there's nothing on the horizon for 2014 to match that.  Yes, "maybe" Pokemon Z and "possibly" Monster Hunter 4G, but nothing confirmed so far other than Smash which is a wild card.  Dragon Quest XI would be a good companion for it, but we don't know squat about that game so far.

The point has always been about maintaining hardware sales for a 4th year.  I know you don't see it as that, but that's what Ryuzaki was getting at and that's what I've been continuing with.

And I guess we just have different definitions of "big".  Look at PSP software sales.  Monster Hunter is in a league of its own.  Then there's a cluster of "big" stuff (i.e. Dissidia; Metal Gear Solid; God Eater; Phantasy Star) before we move down to the mid-level stuff.  That's how I base my metrics.  I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree on that last point.



Read my Vita reviews here

Famitsu Japan Digital Sales Archive
Vita Media Create physical sales database
Vita vs. COMG Japan Sales Comparison

tbone51 on 26 December 2013
Kresnik said:
tbone51 said:

Ok. Thats not fair at all. All the games i listed are big. You guys are just picking the biggest ones. Thats like saying if a game doesn't sell 5mil+ WW it isnt big! :-/

Vita has big games even if most of them dont sell past 200k lifetime. I put games that are going to sell 100k-500k which are big. I dont see why nintendo big is necessarily 1mil+. Than that means 3DS has no big games  aside from 6-7 in japan 


Okay.  Let's go back to the beginning then Tbone.  Ryuzaki said:

ryuzaki57 said:
3DS is definitely beginning its decline though. Not beating last year's LTD with this year's line up is rather surprising, and there's hardly anything big for 2014 so far.

You then assaulted him with a list of "big" games.

The point, to me, has been that 3DS has been selling extremely well for the past 3 years thanks to actually big games (Mario Kart/3D World; Animal Crossing/NSMB; Pokemon/Monster Hunter) and there's nothing on the horizon for 2014 to match that.  Yes, "maybe" Pokemon Z and "possibly" Monster Hunter 4G, but nothing confirmed so far other than Smash which is a wild card.  Dragon Quest XI would be a good companion for it, but we don't know squat about that game so far.

The point has always been about maintaining hardware sales for a 4th year.  I know you don't see it as that, but that's what Ryuzaki was getting at and that's what I've been continuing with.

And I guess we just have different definitions of "big".  Look at PSP software sales.  Monster Hunter is in a league of its own.  Then there's a cluster of "big" stuff (i.e. Dissidia; Metal Gear Solid; God Eater; Phantasy Star) before we move down to the mid-level stuff.  That's how I base my metrics.  I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree on that last point.


My point was only that he was trying to downplay nintendo (again). I just was replying to one thing he said, which i turned around and showed him a list of wats to come. His point in the last sentence was there were no worthy 3DS titles coming in 2014. Talking about somebody that bashes every chance he gets for no reason. Its not my fault nintendo is doing well. He recently stated that he wants to bash when a nintendo game will bomb for example. (ithink it was Bayo2). Many people called him out for it. He admittedly stated he only bashes nintendo which is true.



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Kresnik on 26 December 2013
tbone51 said:

My point was only that he was trying to downplay nintendo (again). I just was replying to one thing he said, which i turned around and showed him a list of wats to come. His point in the last sentence was there were no worthy 3DS titles coming in 2014. Talking about somebody that bashes every chance he gets for no reason. Its not my fault nintendo is doing well. He recently stated that he wants to bash when a nintendo game will bomb for example. (ithink it was Bayo2). Many people called him out for it. He admittedly stated he only bashes nintendo which is true.


I think he had an actual point this time, though.  He may be always on the offensive when it comes to Nintendo, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

P.S. He didn't say there were "no worthy 3DS titles", he said "hardly any big titles".  



Read my Vita reviews here

Famitsu Japan Digital Sales Archive
Vita Media Create physical sales database
Vita vs. COMG Japan Sales Comparison

outlawauron on 26 December 2013
Kresnik said:
I'm a teensy bit surprised at 3DS. It's done extremely well, don't get me wrong, but if you'd told me last year that it would be down YoY despite having Pokemon & Monster Hunter I wouldn't have believed you. Puzzuls and Dragunz, however, has exceeded my expectations by quite some margin. It'll comfortably pass that 1m barrier which must be very pleasing for GungHo.

New releases - below expectations but nothing fatal for Drakengard. Shin Gundam Musou a little lower than I expected on PS3 and a little higher than I expected on Vita. Both of Namco's Omega Force-developed musou titles so far (the other being One Piece Pirate Warriors) seem to have garnered a respectable proportion of their sales on Vita, which much be pleasing for them.

That VitaTV drop is pretty funny btw :P

O_o

What were your expectations? I thought it was going to open to half that. We're opposite on Puzzle Dragons expectations, so it evens out.



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Kresnik on 26 December 2013
outlawauron said:

O_o

What were your expectations? I thought it was going to open to half that. We're opposite on Puzzle Dragons expectations, so it evens out.


130k.  Same as the previous two games & half of COMG weekly (262 points).

Summon Night 5 demonstrated to me that a series can keep its fanbase despite a change in platforms and a large gap between releases.  Though, I suppose that was propped up by the re-release of the first 4 games whereas Drakengard wasn't.

I should have probably put "a bit below expectations".  Digital might've made up the difference.



Read my Vita reviews here

Famitsu Japan Digital Sales Archive
Vita Media Create physical sales database
Vita vs. COMG Japan Sales Comparison

benao87 on 26 December 2013

Those are some great numbers for WiiU. Will the momentum last until February?

3DS did not manage to do 5m this year, bummer. However, if Nintendo manages to keep it relevant, 2014 won't be as bad a some people are trying to suggest.

Winning Eleven on 3DS catched up with PSP version, O.o

MH4 had a rather low bump.



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Kongfucius on 26 December 2013
smbu2000 said:
Kongfucius said:
Hmm, WiiU continuing to get larger than expected xmas boosts, of course you could say that it bloody well needs them but at least it's giving a cause for some optimism for embattled Nintendo fans

PSV also chugging along steadily, nothing spectacular though. Big 3DS software sales, both PDZ and LM2 are in with a shot at 1m in 2013, though it'll be a big ask for hardware to hit 5m YTD (it needs to sell ~320k in Week 52 which traditionally sees a slight drop from 51 - doesn't look like it'll happen)

Shin Gundam Musou is slightly disappointing, even after adjusting my expectations downwards it still did worse than I thought. For the record I was thinking 150k for PS3 and 60k for PSVm thinking that the sales would expand slightly over 2 userbases. It isn't awful though, here are some figures from Vgchartz (SGM figures from MC)

[PS3] Gundam Musou - 174,638 / 306,015
[PS3] Gundam Musou 2 - 176,241 / 315,108
[PS3] Gundam Musou 3 - 189,271 / 363,724
[PS3] Shin Gundam Musou - 126,019
[PSV] Shin Gundam Musou - 52,667
[PS3+PSV] Shin Gundam Musou - 178,686

So basically there was a consistant pattern of moderate growth but now there is slight fall with Shin Gundam Musou, albeit within the same ballpark as the first two games. It's not disasterous and given the high levels of potential fatigue for both Gundam and Musou fans, I think N-B should take these OK, even if it took 2 SKU's to do it

However, it should be noted that using the Famitsu numbers it did a bit worse - PS3=113,493, PSV=44,889, Total=158,382, or 20k less than MC says. Of course digital may boost these but given that the numbers we've had showed only marginal increases for titles even on PSV, I wouldn't count on large proportions of DL sales. Then again who knows? We may be surprised

You didn't include the sales from the 360 versions of the previous games? It's probably not too much, but still worth adding to the total. (There is no 360 version of Shin Gundam Musou.) I own the 360 versions of Gundam Musou 2 and Gundam Musou 3.

I just wish they'd used the cel-shading again for the new one, Shin Gundam Musou, that they used with GM3. I don't like how they've gone back to the old look, as it's definitely a step backwards, IMO. That's why I'm not picking up SGM even though I have a PS3 and Vita.


I know, I only remembered afterwards about the X360 versions, also they still did 1 or 2 for PS2 didn't they? Despite getting into musou with DW7 on X360, I haven't played any of the gundam games, I'm tempted to buy them all if they're cheap partly because I'd like to play them, partly because I'd like to build up a musou collection. Are there any DW:G games I should avoid?