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Will Wii U outsell GameCube?

yes 580 63.25%
 
no 261 28.46%
 
same 75 8.18%
 
Total:916
Soundwave said:
I think Mario Kart 8 will do about 8 million LTD (and MK7 will probably top off around 12-13 mill).

Smash will be less than that.

Nintendo really needs a new franchise to break out for them and drive hardware sales but they're kinda hamstrung as much of their development resources are tied up working on iterative sequels.

There's Miyamoto's mysterious new IP. (Though I have a feeling that will be something quirky like Pikmin)



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How much did the Gamecube sell in the first year? Why aren't there any Gamecube vs Wii U articles?



I voted yes because this generation should be much longer, if that's the case the Wii U should manage to sell more, or at least I'd hope so.



All going to boil down to the games.. Not the marketing, not the distribution, bundles, price drops, not teh "cazuals", none of that bullshit. These factors may sway things a bit in one direction or the other, but at the end of the day, It's ALL going to boil down to the games. Why do you buy consoles in the first place? What is the SOLE purpose of gaming consoles? (Hint.. in aint to watch netflix, jerk it to epic graphics, or waggle a wiimote). Sure you might get off on horsepower, or gimmicky controllers. But at the end of the day, what does this horsepower, or these gimmicky controllers PLAY? GAMES.

Wii U could get Dreamcast-like sales, or it could get SNES to near-Wii sales. ALL of it boils down to the quality, and kinds of games it gets.

I say, if we get more games like Zelda WW, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, etc (nothing against these types of games, but they are incredibly niche).. We end up with Dreamcast or Gamecube sales (15-25 million).

However, if Nintendo goes more in the direction of NES/Wii style games (the kinds of games that made them such a phenomenon) like NSMB, Smash Bros U, Mario Kart 8, Wii Fit, Wii Sports Club, Wii Party U, DKC.. We will see sales trend more towards SNES level (40-50 mill)



Metallicube said:

All going to boil down to the games.. Not the marketing, not the distribution, bundles, price drops, not teh "cazuals", none of that bullshit. These factors may sway things a bit in one direction or the other, but at the end of the day, It's ALL going to boil down to the games. Why do you buy consoles in the first place? What is the SOLE purpose of gaming consoles? (Hint.. in aint to watch netflix, jerk it to epic graphics, or waggle a wiimote). Sure you might get off on horsepower, or gimmicky controllers. But at the end of the day, what does this horsepower, or these gimmicky controllers PLAY? GAMES.

Wii U could get Dreamcast-like sales, or it could get SNES to near-Wii sales. ALL of it boils down to the quality, and kinds of games it gets.

I say, if we get more games like Zelda WW, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, etc (nothing against these types of games, but they are incredibly niche).. We end up with Dreamcast or Gamecube sales (15-25 million).

However, if Nintendo goes more in the direction of NES/Wii style games (the kinds of games that made them such a phenomenon) like NSMB, Smash Bros U, Mario Kart 8, Wii Fit, Wii Sports Club, Wii Party U, DKC.. We will see sales trend more towards SNES level (40-50 mill)


Well the Wii U does have Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Nintendo Land, New Super Mario Bros. U, Mario 3D World, Wii Party U and the sales are still well below the GCN. 

They need a new phenomenon, but that's not so easy to create on demand. 



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Fusioncode said:
zorg1000 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

Its not just price that matters but also competitors price. Gamecube was always cheaper than its competitors by $50-100, for the first year Wii U was $50-100 more expensive than its competitors. Going into next year it will be $100-200 cheaper than its competitors and if possible I say they drop the price to $250 for the NSMBU/Luigi bundle and release a $300 Mario Kart 8+Nintendo Land+Wiimote/Wii Wheel bundle in April.

With the casuals leaving Nintendo, that pretty much leaves just Nintendo core franchises to do all the work and in the first year for Wii U that was pretty much just 2D Mario/Luigi and 3D Mario. There was also a 10 year old Zelda remake and the extremely niche Pikmin. So as far as big hitters go it was all Mario this year and even he cant push a $300+ console on his own. Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros are some of Nintendos biggest hitters and they will help Mario to give Wii U a nice selection of Nintendo system sellers and thats when smaller Nintendo titles can thrive, once the install base is at a respectable level.

U have to remember Gamecube had Smash Bros, Luigi Mansion, Pikmin, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing and $50-100 cheaper than comp in its first year vs 2D Mario/Luigi, 3D Mario, Pikmin and Wind Waker and $50-100 more expensive than comp in its first year. So while Wii U started out worse than Gamecube, it def has more room for improvement.

I'm not so sure that a cheaper price will have much of an impact. The first pricecut did very little, and there are many bundles already available. A lot of people still see WiiU on the same graphical level as PS3 or 360, consoles they can get for only $200. Consumers are already proving that they are willing to pay the extra $100-200 to get a "true" next gen console. (I'm not saying that the WiiU isn't next gen, just that most people still see it as so) I'm sure Mario Kart and Smash will push consoles, but I don't think it will be to the extent people are hoping for. Right now I'm thinking the WiiU will do 25-30 million units lifetime. Wii U successor will be announced 2016, released in 2017. 

Im kinda confused, basically ur whole paragraph is disagreeing with me then at the end u go on to say Wii U will sell more than Gamecube which was the whole point of my post lol



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Fusioncode said:
zorg1000 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

Its not just price that matters but also competitors price. Gamecube was always cheaper than its competitors by $50-100, for the first year Wii U was $50-100 more expensive than its competitors. Going into next year it will be $100-200 cheaper than its competitors and if possible I say they drop the price to $250 for the NSMBU/Luigi bundle and release a $300 Mario Kart 8+Nintendo Land+Wiimote/Wii Wheel bundle in April.

With the casuals leaving Nintendo, that pretty much leaves just Nintendo core franchises to do all the work and in the first year for Wii U that was pretty much just 2D Mario/Luigi and 3D Mario. There was also a 10 year old Zelda remake and the extremely niche Pikmin. So as far as big hitters go it was all Mario this year and even he cant push a $300+ console on his own. Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros are some of Nintendos biggest hitters and they will help Mario to give Wii U a nice selection of Nintendo system sellers and thats when smaller Nintendo titles can thrive, once the install base is at a respectable level.

U have to remember Gamecube had Smash Bros, Luigi Mansion, Pikmin, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing and $50-100 cheaper than comp in its first year vs 2D Mario/Luigi, 3D Mario, Pikmin and Wind Waker and $50-100 more expensive than comp in its first year. So while Wii U started out worse than Gamecube, it def has more room for improvement.

I'm not so sure that a cheaper price will have much of an impact. The first pricecut did very little, and there are many bundles already available. A lot of people still see WiiU on the same graphical level as PS3 or 360, consoles they can get for only $200. Consumers are already proving that they are willing to pay the extra $100-200 to get a "true" next gen console. (I'm not saying that the WiiU isn't next gen, just that most people still see it as so) I'm sure Mario Kart and Smash will push consoles, but I don't think it will be to the extent people are hoping for. Right now I'm thinking the WiiU will do 25-30 million units lifetime. Wii U successor will be announced 2016, released in 2017. 

Im kinda confused, basically ur whole paragraph is disagreeing with me then at the end u go on to say Wii U will sell more than Gamecube which was the whole point of my post lol

Well yeah I think it will do slightly better than the Gamecube. I just didn't know your exact stance on it I guess. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Metallicube said:

All going to boil down to the games.. Not the marketing, not the distribution, bundles, price drops, not teh "cazuals", none of that bullshit. These factors may sway things a bit in one direction or the other, but at the end of the day, It's ALL going to boil down to the games. Why do you buy consoles in the first place? What is the SOLE purpose of gaming consoles? (Hint.. in aint to watch netflix, jerk it to epic graphics, or waggle a wiimote). Sure you might get off on horsepower, or gimmicky controllers. But at the end of the day, what does this horsepower, or these gimmicky controllers PLAY? GAMES.

Wii U could get Dreamcast-like sales, or it could get SNES to near-Wii sales. ALL of it boils down to the quality, and kinds of games it gets.

I say, if we get more games like Zelda WW, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, etc (nothing against these types of games, but they are incredibly niche).. We end up with Dreamcast or Gamecube sales (15-25 million).

However, if Nintendo goes more in the direction of NES/Wii style games (the kinds of games that made them such a phenomenon) like NSMB, Smash Bros U, Mario Kart 8, Wii Fit, Wii Sports Club, Wii Party U, DKC.. We will see sales trend more towards SNES level (40-50 mill)

While I agree it all comes down to the games, I disagree on the kind of games it needs to succeed.

The GCN sold like it did because Wind Waker, Mario Sunshine, Double Dash, Starfox Adventures, etc, were not what the audience wanted; they all reduced the appeal of their franchise.

Wii U has to focus on taking its franchises to the next level instead of hamstringing them like GCN did. Mario Kart 8 and the 2011 Zelda tech demo are an example of doing this right. NSMBU or Zelda U being toon are examples of doing it wrong. 

Also, with 3D World, Donkey Kong, Smash, and Kart, Nintendo has their fanbase in the bag; what they need to do now is expand their base by bringing in new types of gamers, the ones who aren't swayed by Mario or Smash. A dark Zelda or an epic new IP would be great examples of how to do this.



Soundwave said:
Metallicube said:

All going to boil down to the games.. Not the marketing, not the distribution, bundles, price drops, not teh "cazuals", none of that bullshit. These factors may sway things a bit in one direction or the other, but at the end of the day, It's ALL going to boil down to the games. Why do you buy consoles in the first place? What is the SOLE purpose of gaming consoles? (Hint.. in aint to watch netflix, jerk it to epic graphics, or waggle a wiimote). Sure you might get off on horsepower, or gimmicky controllers. But at the end of the day, what does this horsepower, or these gimmicky controllers PLAY? GAMES.

Wii U could get Dreamcast-like sales, or it could get SNES to near-Wii sales. ALL of it boils down to the quality, and kinds of games it gets.

I say, if we get more games like Zelda WW, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, etc (nothing against these types of games, but they are incredibly niche).. We end up with Dreamcast or Gamecube sales (15-25 million).

However, if Nintendo goes more in the direction of NES/Wii style games (the kinds of games that made them such a phenomenon) like NSMB, Smash Bros U, Mario Kart 8, Wii Fit, Wii Sports Club, Wii Party U, DKC.. We will see sales trend more towards SNES level (40-50 mill)


Well the Wii U does have Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Nintendo Land, New Super Mario Bros. U, Mario 3D World, Wii Party U and the sales are still well below the GCN. 

They need a new phenomenon, but that's not so easy to create on demand. 

Nintendoland isn't included in the NES/Wii stlye of games, as the game reminds me more of the Mario Party games that are found on N64 and Cube.. 3D World is also more like an N64/Gamecube Mario game. Again, that doesn't mean they're bad. They're actually great (to me anyway, but I recognize that there are a whole lot of people that disagree). Wii Sports Club is pretty new, and all the sports have not yet been released. I also think Nintendo is going about it the wrong way by releasing it in segments, at 10 bucks a piece, as opposed to a hard copy compilation for only $50. Fit U also just came out and we've yet to see its true effects.

I agree they need a new phenomenon, but the root of that phenomenon will likely lie in the style of games that Nintendo excels at best, and not coincidentially the kind the brings them the most successs - and that is the arcade style action type games that are very easy to pick up and play and tough to master. These kinds of games were released in abundance on the NES and Wii, and to an extent, the SNES, which are by no coincidence, the most successful Nintendo home consoles. Their handheld games are almost always in this style, which is why they have had such continual dominance in the handheld sector.. Most of the Sony and MS games  I've played (as well as the niche style Gamecube stuff I've played from Nintendo like Pikmin) are the reverse of the "easy to play hard to master", which I believe is absolutely the wrong way to go about gaming, and provides a much more limited appeal.



Fusioncode said:
zorg1000 said:
Fusioncode said:
zorg1000 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

Its not just price that matters but also competitors price. Gamecube was always cheaper than its competitors by $50-100, for the first year Wii U was $50-100 more expensive than its competitors. Going into next year it will be $100-200 cheaper than its competitors and if possible I say they drop the price to $250 for the NSMBU/Luigi bundle and release a $300 Mario Kart 8+Nintendo Land+Wiimote/Wii Wheel bundle in April.

With the casuals leaving Nintendo, that pretty much leaves just Nintendo core franchises to do all the work and in the first year for Wii U that was pretty much just 2D Mario/Luigi and 3D Mario. There was also a 10 year old Zelda remake and the extremely niche Pikmin. So as far as big hitters go it was all Mario this year and even he cant push a $300+ console on his own. Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros are some of Nintendos biggest hitters and they will help Mario to give Wii U a nice selection of Nintendo system sellers and thats when smaller Nintendo titles can thrive, once the install base is at a respectable level.

U have to remember Gamecube had Smash Bros, Luigi Mansion, Pikmin, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing and $50-100 cheaper than comp in its first year vs 2D Mario/Luigi, 3D Mario, Pikmin and Wind Waker and $50-100 more expensive than comp in its first year. So while Wii U started out worse than Gamecube, it def has more room for improvement.

I'm not so sure that a cheaper price will have much of an impact. The first pricecut did very little, and there are many bundles already available. A lot of people still see WiiU on the same graphical level as PS3 or 360, consoles they can get for only $200. Consumers are already proving that they are willing to pay the extra $100-200 to get a "true" next gen console. (I'm not saying that the WiiU isn't next gen, just that most people still see it as so) I'm sure Mario Kart and Smash will push consoles, but I don't think it will be to the extent people are hoping for. Right now I'm thinking the WiiU will do 25-30 million units lifetime. Wii U successor will be announced 2016, released in 2017. 

Im kinda confused, basically ur whole paragraph is disagreeing with me then at the end u go on to say Wii U will sell more than Gamecube which was the whole point of my post lol

Well yeah I think it will do slightly better than the Gamecube. I just didn't know your exact stance on it I guess. 


My bad, I was just explaining why its currently doing worse than GC and how next year things will improve. I think 25-30m sounds plausible.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.