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Will Wii U outsell GameCube?

yes 580 63.25%
 
no 261 28.46%
 
same 75 8.18%
 
Total:916
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 



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Gamecube was the last console to release during the 6th gen, Wii U was the first to release during the 8th gen. I think despite WiiU's rocky start, the system is still capable of reaching 30+ million sales. Maybe more if the onslaught of quality games next year cause a Wii-like runaway effect.

I have more hope for WiiU then I do for Vita, and strong Super Mario 3D World sales back me up.



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Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

1. But it will happen.

2/3. Mario was oversaturated between NSMB2, 3D Land, 3D World, and NSMBU within 2 years. Kart and Smash don't have this problem.



curl-6 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

1. But it will happen.

2/3. Mario was oversaturated between NSMB2, 3D Land, 3D World, and NSMBU within 2 years. Kart and Smash don't have this problem.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean they're going to sell Wii numbers. I still attribute the boosts for those franchises with the success of the Wii. A less successful system will hurt Kart and Smash. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

1. But it will happen.

2/3. Mario was oversaturated between NSMB2, 3D Land, 3D World, and NSMBU within 2 years. Kart and Smash don't have this problem.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean they're going to sell Wii numbers. I still attribute the boosts for those franchises with the success of the Wii. A less successful system will hurt Kart and Smash. 

Oh they're definitely not going to do Wii numbers, but I still reckon they'll do well. MK8 doesn't have Double Dash's handicap of complicating a fundamentally casual game. 



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Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

Its not just price that matters but also competitors price. Gamecube was always cheaper than its competitors by $50-100, for the first year Wii U was $50-100 more expensive than its competitors. Going into next year it will be $100-200 cheaper than its competitors and if possible I say they drop the price to $250 for the NSMBU/Luigi bundle and release a $300 Mario Kart 8+Nintendo Land+Wiimote/Wii Wheel bundle in April.

With the casuals leaving Nintendo, that pretty much leaves just Nintendo core franchises to do all the work and in the first year for Wii U that was pretty much just 2D Mario/Luigi and 3D Mario. There was also a 10 year old Zelda remake and the extremely niche Pikmin. So as far as big hitters go it was all Mario this year and even he cant push a $300+ console on his own. Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros are some of Nintendos biggest hitters and they will help Mario to give Wii U a nice selection of Nintendo system sellers and thats when smaller Nintendo titles can thrive, once the install base is at a respectable level.

U have to remember Gamecube had Smash Bros, Luigi Mansion, Pikmin, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing and $50-100 cheaper than comp in its first year vs 2D Mario/Luigi, 3D Mario, Pikmin and Wind Waker and $50-100 more expensive than comp in its first year. So while Wii U started out worse than Gamecube, it def has more room for improvement.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

Its not just price that matters but also competitors price. Gamecube was always cheaper than its competitors by $50-100, for the first year Wii U was $50-100 more expensive than its competitors. Going into next year it will be $100-200 cheaper than its competitors and if possible I say they drop the price to $250 for the NSMBU/Luigi bundle and release a $300 Mario Kart 8+Nintendo Land+Wiimote/Wii Wheel bundle in April.

With the casuals leaving Nintendo, that pretty much leaves just Nintendo core franchises to do all the work and in the first year for Wii U that was pretty much just 2D Mario/Luigi and 3D Mario. There was also a 10 year old Zelda remake and the extremely niche Pikmin. So as far as big hitters go it was all Mario this year and even he cant push a $300+ console on his own. Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros are some of Nintendos biggest hitters and they will help Mario to give Wii U a nice selection of Nintendo system sellers and thats when smaller Nintendo titles can thrive, once the install base is at a respectable level.

U have to remember Gamecube had Smash Bros, Luigi Mansion, Pikmin, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing and $50-100 cheaper than comp in its first year vs 2D Mario/Luigi, 3D Mario, Pikmin and Wind Waker and $50-100 more expensive than comp in its first year. So while Wii U started out worse than Gamecube, it def has more room for improvement.

I'm not so sure that a cheaper price will have much of an impact. The first pricecut did very little, and there are many bundles already available. A lot of people still see WiiU on the same graphical level as PS3 or 360, consoles they can get for only $200. Consumers are already proving that they are willing to pay the extra $100-200 to get a "true" next gen console. (I'm not saying that the WiiU isn't next gen, just that most people still see it as so) I'm sure Mario Kart and Smash will push consoles, but I don't think it will be to the extent people are hoping for. Right now I'm thinking the WiiU will do 25-30 million units lifetime. Wii U successor will be announced 2016, released in 2017. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

curl-6 said:
Fusioncode said:
curl-6 said:
Captain_Tom said:

1) It's more expensive because of the useless tablet.  Unless they remove it, its price will never drop to the Gamecube's levels.  

2) Why would those games do better on Wii U than they did on Gamecube?  Mario didn't.  Again what do we know?

3) Even if theings turn around to Gamecube levels, it would fail to beat it because right now the Gamecube is DESTROYING it.  It would have to start destroying the Gamecube to even catch up with it...

I am not saying the Wii U can't do better, I am saying there is zero evidence that it will, and tons of evidence that it won't.  Anyone who says it WILL do better, is delusional.

There's plenty of evidence it will, you're just choosing to ignore it.

1. "WiiU will never drop to Gamecube price" ... seriously? You think Wii U will never hit $199 with the tablet? Manufacturing costs reduce with time.

2. Because those franchises have grown since then.

3. Gamecube was the car with good acceleration but no top speed. Wii U is the car with shitty acceleration but a higher top speed. (Key games arriving later, higher starting price point)

1. That $199 won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. That's a long time from now.

2. Those franchises grew with the success of the Wii, with the WiiU doing much worse it's very likely that Mario Kart and Smash Bros will return to Gamecube numbers. 

3. Several key games have already arrived and they have done litte to push hardware. NSMB sold 30 million copies on the Wii, why didn't that become a huge hardware pusher for the WiiU? 

1. But it will happen.

2/3. Mario was oversaturated between NSMB2, 3D Land, 3D World, and NSMBU within 2 years. Kart and Smash don't have this problem.


Even so, Mario Kart 7 on a healthy 3DS userbase is still on track to sell considerably less than Mario Kart DS and probably not even half of Mario Kart Wii. 

DS/Wii was just lightning in a bottle for Nintendo. Those days are gone, all their franchise IP will probably normalize quite a bit this generation.

I think Smash being on the 3DS also hurts the Wii U version, it will probably split apart the Smash userbase into some who are fine with the 3DS version. 

 



Soundwave said:

Even so, Mario Kart 7 on a healthy 3DS userbase is still on track to sell considerably less than Mario Kart DS and probably not even half of Mario Kart Wii. 

DS/Wii was just lightning in a bottle for Nintendo. Those days are gone, all their franchise IP will probably normalize quite a bit this generation.

I think Smash being on the 3DS also hurts the Wii U version, it will probably split apart the Smash userbase into some who are fine with the 3DS version. 

 

But Mario Kart 7 is already well passed what Mario Kart Super Circuit sold on a base of 81 million GBAs, despite the 3DS having less than half that base. It may not be as high as the DS era, but its way bigger than the pre-DS era. The growth of that era has not disappeared.

I suspect the sale will be true of Mario Kart 8.



I think Mario Kart 8 will do about 8 million LTD (and MK7 will probably top off around 12-13 mill).

Smash will be less than that.

Nintendo really needs a new franchise to break out for them and drive hardware sales but they're kinda hamstrung as much of their development resources are tied up working on iterative sequels.