The Wii U seems like GameCube. It has great games but bad sales. I just don't know if Wii U will pass up GameCube. GCN by this point had sold quite a bit more than Wii U. What do you think?
It all depends on whether games like Zelda U expand the user base by going Twilight Princess or simply sell to the established fanbase by going toon.
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say yes, but it won't be by much. 26-27 million maybe, assuming they get their act together from now on and ride Mario Kart for all its worth.
With waning third party support starting next year they will endure some ugly droughts though, it's just inevitable. Nintendo can only make so many games and half of them are bound to see delays.
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a:) bundling - which seems to have worked well in Japan
b:) price - it will need to become an impulse buy . I picked up the $219 skylanders bundle that was TOTALLY undermarketed by newegg/Toys r us. The casuals will then cause the Wii Fit/Party/Sports Us of the world to sell.
The only 3rd party stuff that will matter is where 3rd parties are given a piece of nintendo licensing to work with - Hyrule wars is a good start.