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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How Much Do You Think Wii U Will Sell January 2014?

BHR-3 on 19 December 2013

im gonna say 100-150k wit a 20-30k weekly WW average when counting the last 4 weeks of Jan

how are you guys getting your 2013 Jan numbers?



                                                             

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JWeinCom on 19 December 2013
Seece said:
JWeinCom said:
Seece said:

150k??

Where are all these 380k figures coming from? It's just done 220k in Nov, I don't see it matching the 57k from January NPD this year, and Europe is even lower than that.

Week ending 5th isn't really this year, it's counted as last year at least in NPD and Charttrack.


Pretty sure we're talking about WW here.  Last year WW was about 250K and November was about 450K.


I think the Wii U will have some nice momentum coming out of the holidays.  Advertising has picked up + word of mouth sales.   The key will be how Nintendo markets Wii Fit U.  If they market that well, we could see around 350K.  However, Nintendo hasn't been advertising their casual titles well at all lately, so I'm going to say 240K.

Yeah I'm talking WW as well, it was 150k! January NPD was 57k.

You're expecting a January that's on par with this past November, but fair enough. Not long to wait for results!


Uhhhhh... dunno where you'll pulling number from but we have it 280K here.  And november at 475K.



Welfare on 19 December 2013

145k.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

POE on 19 December 2013

300k



Aielyn on 19 December 2013

I think people are going to be rather surprised.

500k.

To put this into context, the Wii sold over 1 million units in January for the first 5 years, and then over 670k in January 2012. In January 2013, it sold 320k, when at the same time, the Wii U sold 282k - a total between the two of 602k. The Wii has now been discontinued in both Japan and Europe, and is diminishing in sales relative to the Wii U.

As such, I am expecting Wii U at about 500k, and Wii at about 100k. I feel that this is a justifiable prediction - here's the 2012 (Wii) vs 2013 (Wii+WiiU) numbers for the non-holiday months:

January: 672k / 602k
February: 452k / 340k
March: 397k / 416k
April: 287k / 256k
May: 250k / 209k
June: 274k / 230k
July: 229k / 217k
August: 274k / 200k
September: 216k / 294k
October: 195k / 279k
And for November and December, here's 2011 (Wii) / 2012/2013 (Wii+WiiU):
November: 1728k / 1187k / 713k
December: 3201k / 3061k / [Currently unknown]

Note that these numbers have all come from VGChartz's Year-on-Year comparison chart system. What you will notice is that Wii+WiiU in 2013 typically tended to be only a little down on Wii in 2012, with the worst performance being August 2013 (down about 28%) and the best performance being October 2013 (up about 43%). For the first 10 months of 2013, the Wii+WiiU were 3043k, compared with the Wii selling about 3246k in the first 10 months of 2012, indicating only a very small drop in total Nintendo home console sales between the years, with regards to the first 10 months. I am, essentially, assuming that this will continue into 2014.

Considering the Wii+WiiU were able to do this without any notable releases in January 2013, I don't see any reason to think things will be dramatically different in January 2014.



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Dragon246 on 19 December 2013

less than 200k.



Seece on 19 December 2013
JWeinCom said:
Seece said:
JWeinCom said:
Seece said:

150k??

Where are all these 380k figures coming from? It's just done 220k in Nov, I don't see it matching the 57k from January NPD this year, and Europe is even lower than that.

Week ending 5th isn't really this year, it's counted as last year at least in NPD and Charttrack.


Pretty sure we're talking about WW here.  Last year WW was about 250K and November was about 450K.


I think the Wii U will have some nice momentum coming out of the holidays.  Advertising has picked up + word of mouth sales.   The key will be how Nintendo markets Wii Fit U.  If they market that well, we could see around 350K.  However, Nintendo hasn't been advertising their casual titles well at all lately, so I'm going to say 240K.

Yeah I'm talking WW as well, it was 150k! January NPD was 57k.

You're expecting a January that's on par with this past November, but fair enough. Not long to wait for results!


Uhhhhh... dunno where you'll pulling number from but we have it 280K here.  And november at 475K.

5th January is 2012 not 2013.



 

Seece on 19 December 2013
Aielyn said:

I think people are going to be rather surprised.

500k.

To put this into context, the Wii sold over 1 million units in January for the first 5 years, and then over 670k in January 2012. In January 2013, it sold 320k, when at the same time, the Wii U sold 282k - a total between the two of 602k. The Wii has now been discontinued in both Japan and Europe, and is diminishing in sales relative to the Wii U.

As such, I am expecting Wii U at about 500k, and Wii at about 100k. I feel that this is a justifiable prediction - here's the 2012 (Wii) vs 2013 (Wii+WiiU) numbers for the non-holiday months:

January: 672k / 602k
February: 452k / 340k
March: 397k / 416k
April: 287k / 256k
May: 250k / 209k
June: 274k / 230k
July: 229k / 217k
August: 274k / 200k
September: 216k / 294k
October: 195k / 279k
And for November and December, here's 2011 (Wii) / 2012/2013 (Wii+WiiU):
November: 1728k / 1187k / 713k
December: 3201k / 3061k / [Currently unknown]

Note that these numbers have all come from VGChartz's Year-on-Year comparison chart system. What you will notice is that Wii+WiiU in 2013 typically tended to be only a little down on Wii in 2012, with the worst performance being August 2013 (down about 28%) and the best performance being October 2013 (up about 43%). For the first 10 months of 2013, the Wii+WiiU were 3043k, compared with the Wii selling about 3246k in the first 10 months of 2012, indicating only a very small drop in total Nintendo home console sales between the years, with regards to the first 10 months. I am, essentially, assuming that this will continue into 2014.

Considering the Wii+WiiU were able to do this without any notable releases in January 2013, I don't see any reason to think things will be dramatically different in January 2014.

So you're assuming that WiiU is going to take up the lost Wii sales? Why isn't this happening now? You expect the console to be up 200%+ YOY with just Wii Fit releasing and no post launch hype.

500k would be incredible, just doesn't seem logical tho. You're expecting it to do more in the US in January than this November with Black Friday and Mario 3D World.



 

JoeTheBro on 19 December 2013
Seece said:
JWeinCom said:
Seece said:
JWeinCom said:
Seece said:

150k??

Where are all these 380k figures coming from? It's just done 220k in Nov, I don't see it matching the 57k from January NPD this year, and Europe is even lower than that.

Week ending 5th isn't really this year, it's counted as last year at least in NPD and Charttrack.


Pretty sure we're talking about WW here.  Last year WW was about 250K and November was about 450K.


I think the Wii U will have some nice momentum coming out of the holidays.  Advertising has picked up + word of mouth sales.   The key will be how Nintendo markets Wii Fit U.  If they market that well, we could see around 350K.  However, Nintendo hasn't been advertising their casual titles well at all lately, so I'm going to say 240K.

Yeah I'm talking WW as well, it was 150k! January NPD was 57k.

You're expecting a January that's on par with this past November, but fair enough. Not long to wait for results!


Uhhhhh... dunno where you'll pulling number from but we have it 280K here.  And november at 475K.

5th January is 2012 not 2013.


http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2010&end_year=2013&console=WiiU



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Seece on 19 December 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JWeinCom said:


Uhhhhh... dunno where you'll pulling number from but we have it 280K here.  And november at 475K.

5th January is 2012 not 2013.


http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2010&end_year=2013&console=WiiU

Meh, my predictions then

VGC = 220k

 NPD, Chartrack, ect = 150k