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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Do You Think X,Bayonetta 2 & Other First Party Titles For The Wii U Will Have Great Sales Or Suffer From Poor Sales ?

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Pavolink on 16 December 2013

I have the feeling both will flop. Bayo 2 harder, but X won{t reach the same amount that Xenoblade get.



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Ninjahound101 on 16 December 2013
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:


They do estimates of those but NPD is about 75% accurate so the number i gave could be the right one, though all i did was give an estimate and either way VGC is less than 25K off

I have no idea about Xenoblade NPD figures though

Are you just making this stuff up? NPD is more accurate than that.

Judging by the evidence out there, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m copies.

"NPD covers roughly 60-65% of the U.S. retailers.[7][8][9] It notably does not cover Toys R Us (since Oct 2007) and Sam's Club retailers, but it has covered Amazon since Nov 2007 and Walmart since Feb 2012.[10][11] Although, NPD does not track Toys R Us, they do estimate Toys R Us and other retailers' sales using various algorithms and estimations. In February 2008, the firm announced they will begin tracking online game subscriptions for PC sales data and Xbox Live online subscribers on a quarterly basis and then start gathering data from digital distribution later in 2008."

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_Group

Pachter says that NPD is 85-90% accurate so 70% seems about right

800K is close to 1 million

Pachter says 90% so you say 70% seems about right?? Not to mention, you think it would work in Xenoblades favour, it works both ways, it could mean they over estimated sales rather than under.

But alas, I havn't seen any solid evidence other than Japan, so like I said, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m.

It covers 60% and Pachter says they cover 90% so i too the mean minus pachters inaccuracy

I am not even talking about Xenoblade, i was talking about Mario 3D World, what brought Xenoblade into the discussion in the first place?

The game was very popular in Germany, sold out quickly as a gamestop exclusive and did well in Japan so 800K is believable(Just because you mentioned Xenoblade)

Seece don't twist things around 229K for 3D World in USA (Retail + Digital) seems like a fair estimate

Does it? How about remove 15k so it's 200k? Why are you assuming the inaccuracy is in its favour. Don't do that.

Ok that's simply stupid, since it covers 75%  which is below 100% that means that if they covered more stores the number will increase not decrease

if they were tracking over 100% then we should go down

plus since we have the official numbers from Nintendo (215K) which are the digital plus the NPD figure the numbers will simply increase, the larger the openning week the more inaccurate the NPD is so if this was pokemon and not Mario NPD could easily be 300K off, 15K in the favor of Mario is possible the opposite is NOT possible



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

Rogerioandrade on 16 December 2013

I do think that both games will sell good enough, they won´t be huge industry success, but enough to please both Nintendo and Platinum.



Seece on 16 December 2013
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:


They do estimates of those but NPD is about 75% accurate so the number i gave could be the right one, though all i did was give an estimate and either way VGC is less than 25K off

I have no idea about Xenoblade NPD figures though

Are you just making this stuff up? NPD is more accurate than that.

Judging by the evidence out there, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m copies.

"NPD covers roughly 60-65% of the U.S. retailers.[7][8][9] It notably does not cover Toys R Us (since Oct 2007) and Sam's Club retailers, but it has covered Amazon since Nov 2007 and Walmart since Feb 2012.[10][11] Although, NPD does not track Toys R Us, they do estimate Toys R Us and other retailers' sales using various algorithms and estimations. In February 2008, the firm announced they will begin tracking online game subscriptions for PC sales data and Xbox Live online subscribers on a quarterly basis and then start gathering data from digital distribution later in 2008."

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_Group

Pachter says that NPD is 85-90% accurate so 70% seems about right

800K is close to 1 million

Pachter says 90% so you say 70% seems about right?? Not to mention, you think it would work in Xenoblades favour, it works both ways, it could mean they over estimated sales rather than under.

But alas, I havn't seen any solid evidence other than Japan, so like I said, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m.

It covers 60% and Pachter says they cover 90% so i too the mean minus pachters inaccuracy

I am not even talking about Xenoblade, i was talking about Mario 3D World, what brought Xenoblade into the discussion in the first place?

The game was very popular in Germany, sold out quickly as a gamestop exclusive and did well in Japan so 800K is believable(Just because you mentioned Xenoblade)

Seece don't twist things around 229K for 3D World in USA (Retail + Digital) seems like a fair estimate

Does it? How about remove 15k so it's 200k? Why are you assuming the inaccuracy is in its favour. Don't do that.

Ok that's simply stupid, since it covers 75%  which is below 100% that means that if they covered more stores the number will increase not decrease

if they were tracking over 100% then we should go down

plus since we have the official numbers from Nintendo (215K) which are the digital plus the NPD figure the numbers will simply increase, the larger the openning week the more inaccurate the NPD is so if this was pokemon and not Mario NPD could easily be 300K off, 15K in the favor of Mario is possible the opposite is NOT possible

Ugh we've already told you, they ESTIMATE. Which means they could be over estimating.



 

S.T.A.G.E. on 16 December 2013
Ninjahound101 said:
cusman said:
EricFabian said:
Bayo 2 is a 3rd party game, but anyway I think Bayo2 and X will sell between 400~600k

I think you mean between ~40-60k

Be realistic. If Call of Duty Ghosts can't crack 100k on Wii U, then neither Bayonetta 2 nor X have much chance for doing better. Not when majority of Nintendo fans are long gone after the Wii in expanding the "casual" base (which migrated to iPads), basically lost the Nintendo "core" to either MS or Sony.

I think that those Nintendo "core" fans are absolutely interested in Nintendo games, but they are not willing to spend $300 on Nintendo Console to have access to a handful of Nintendo games. Especially when they face major expenses in acquiring either PS4 or XBO.

Nintendo has gotten itself positioned as a second choice console even with the Nintendo game fans.

Are you drunk, both Bayo 2 and X will at least do 3 times as well as ZombiU and yeas i do mean 1.5 Million each


Are you kidding me? With Nintendo's market? You have a lot of faith. 1.5 M is close to what the first Bayonetta sold in total. Its not going to sell a million on one console. Its going to sell 400k to 600k at the highest the way the Wii U is selling at the moment (and thats being generous). Its not the only Nintendo published Platinum Games title to sell lower than expected. Just wait. According to this site Wonderful 101 didn't even sell 100k, so how could you expect. Any betting man should assume somewhere between 200k-400k on the Wii U at the most for Bayonetta right now.



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Ninjahound101 on 16 December 2013
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:
Ninjahound101 said:


They do estimates of those but NPD is about 75% accurate so the number i gave could be the right one, though all i did was give an estimate and either way VGC is less than 25K off

I have no idea about Xenoblade NPD figures though

Are you just making this stuff up? NPD is more accurate than that.

Judging by the evidence out there, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m copies.

"NPD covers roughly 60-65% of the U.S. retailers.[7][8][9] It notably does not cover Toys R Us (since Oct 2007) and Sam's Club retailers, but it has covered Amazon since Nov 2007 and Walmart since Feb 2012.[10][11] Although, NPD does not track Toys R Us, they do estimate Toys R Us and other retailers' sales using various algorithms and estimations. In February 2008, the firm announced they will begin tracking online game subscriptions for PC sales data and Xbox Live online subscribers on a quarterly basis and then start gathering data from digital distribution later in 2008."

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_Group

Pachter says that NPD is 85-90% accurate so 70% seems about right

800K is close to 1 million

Pachter says 90% so you say 70% seems about right?? Not to mention, you think it would work in Xenoblades favour, it works both ways, it could mean they over estimated sales rather than under.

But alas, I havn't seen any solid evidence other than Japan, so like I said, I find it very difficult to believe Xenoblade is anywhere near 1m.

It covers 60% and Pachter says they cover 90% so i too the mean minus pachters inaccuracy

I am not even talking about Xenoblade, i was talking about Mario 3D World, what brought Xenoblade into the discussion in the first place?

The game was very popular in Germany, sold out quickly as a gamestop exclusive and did well in Japan so 800K is believable(Just because you mentioned Xenoblade)

Seece don't twist things around 229K for 3D World in USA (Retail + Digital) seems like a fair estimate

Does it? How about remove 15k so it's 200k? Why are you assuming the inaccuracy is in its favour. Don't do that.

Ok that's simply stupid, since it covers 75%  which is below 100% that means that if they covered more stores the number will increase not decrease

if they were tracking over 100% then we should go down

plus since we have the official numbers from Nintendo (215K) which are the digital plus the NPD figure the numbers will simply increase, the larger the openning week the more inaccurate the NPD is so if this was pokemon and not Mario NPD could easily be 300K off, 15K in the favor of Mario is possible the opposite is NOT possible

Ugh we've already told you, they ESTIMATE. Which means they could be over estimating.


Again they estimate what is worth estimating they estimate Toys R Us and Sam's Club but they don't estimate smaller shops, shops that are very small are not taken into consideration, either way 230K or 200K is still way closer than your 135K so either way i'm still closer



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

Seece on 16 December 2013
Ninjahound101 said:
Seece said:

Ugh we've already told you, they ESTIMATE. Which means they could be over estimating.


Again they estimate what is worth estimating they estimate Toys R Us and Sam's Club but they don't estimate smaller shops, shops that are very small are not taken into consideration, either way 230K or 200K is still way closer than your 135K so either way i'm still closer

Cut your quote chains down.

And yes they do, the estimate the entire market.



 

Ninjahound101 on 16 December 2013

Seece said:

Ugh we've already told you, they ESTIMATE. Which means they could be over estimating.


Again they estimate what is worth estimating they estimate Toys R Us and Sam's Club but they don't estimate smaller shops, shops that are very small are not taken into consideration, either way 230K or 200K is still way closer than your 135K so either way i'm still closer

Cut your quote chains down.

And yes they do, the estimate the entire market.

Doesn't matter the point is the game is way less than 100K overtracked in the US and this is getting boring



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615