ps2 sold 150 millions without 75 millions games not every hardcore games willboy the sames games.

Best casuals games on ps2 is  EyeToy Play it sold only 5 millions that means majority of ps2 owners are hardcore gamers. I doubt they are more then 20 millions casuals who buy a ps2.That means 130 millions could buy a ps4. 

I think all these new consoles are too much like their predecessors. It's too "samey' and that's why console sales are shrink big time this generation compared to last generation. I think a lot of the mass market or casuals are looking for novel experiences they can't find anywhere else. That's why I argued Nintendo should have went the AR Glasses route for the Wii U http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=174328&page=1 . I wouldn't doubt they are going to go that route for their next console.

Like he later replied, there are different views of what casual gamers are. My definition of casual games is someone that doesnt buy more than 1-2 games a year. What games they are are irrelevant to me on this definition.

People have diverse tastes not everyone enjoys dark souls some (probably the majority) people find it boring. That still doesn`t mean they are not dedicated gamers.  

For me a casual gamers is a person who play rarely games,some one could buy only 2 games a year but play them everyday.

Many peoples buy a console only for Fifa or COD why do you think those peoples will stop buying Fifa and COD.

with the massive response ps4/xbone has gotten so far your statement that both will sell less then their predecessors seems extremely,... unsubstantiated.

...not sure that they'll grown and much less sure they'll grow at a rate to overcome nintendo's massive contraction. but your analysis seems terrible for the current set of facts. as a prediction i think you're also pretty far off. many casuals buy just for madden or just for CoD. i don't see sony or MS loosing these guys to apple or anyone else.

While I agree we will witness a contraction from the roughly 260 million consoles sold, I do not think it will be as bad as you make it out to be. I think there are whole markets in developing economies that are growing, so even a splintering or reduction in mature markets does not spell such doom and gloom.

One big thing this generation has is consoles are affordable right off the bat. I know people disagree, but $500-600 in 2005-2006 was much more than $400-500 in 2013. I think we will witness price points of $300 and $200 much sooner and mid to late generation see far more people buying systems than you expect.

My predictions

PS4 - 100-110 million
X1 - 70-80 million
Wii U - 40-50 million

Overall - 210-240 million so best case we still witness a contraction, but not terrible as all three companies can weather such a climate. Much of this estimation depends on length of this generation being 5 or 8 years long as well as who knows overall global markets. This past gen endured a near global melt down with record numbers so hard to say.

Please take a read of my response to others that are using launch totals as an indicator of future sales.

The analysis is based on the launch #'s.  I have just come to a different conclusion than you and many others.  As afar as Madden and COD, again lok at the other comments above.

Your analysis is terribly flawed. You only take into consideration very few factors, like price and power, and nothing like brand appeal, first/third party support which we're still totally in the dark with, word of mouth, longevity.

Besides that, you state it like fact, instead of leaving it open to discussion.

How is it flawed if I haven't made the original post three pages long.  That's what the comment section is for.

I state it with conviction.  It is up to you to provide the discussion with meaningful counterstatements.