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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Confirms that Smash Bros Isn't Lined up for Spring 2014...

They didn't confirm anything. They simply said it was false when it was misreported that it was coming in spring, and that they have "nothing further to share at this time".

We all know Mario Kart is coming first anyway, so it's not that big a deal.



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I have a bad feeling the WiiU release schedule will look something like this:

Quarter 4: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

Quarter 1: Mario Kart 8

Quarter 2: Super Smash Bros. 4 (prolly sept coinsiding with a pricecut)

Quarter 3: Bayonetta 2 (marketing it as some kind of AAA blockbuster or something)

Quarter 4: Animal Crossing: New Leaf 2

Hope i'm wrong.



TK14 said:
I called this and posted in many threads that at NO point (barring the "mistake" the other day from a German Nintendo employee) had Nintendo EVER given any indication on WHEN in 2014 Super Smash Bros. would come out. And those who expected it in the first half of the year were just being unrealistic. Wii U has 2 titles that stand head-and-shoulders above the rest of the lineup for 2014 when it comes to their system-selling potential: Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. To release BOTH of those in the same half of the year or even within a few months of each other would be ridiculous from a business perspective.

To be fair, you could have said the same thing in 2008 regarding Mario Kart Wii and Smash Bros Brawl... Smash released in the US in March, and then Mario Kart Wii in April. Mario Kart Wii has sold over 34 million copies, and Brawl is at nearly 12 million (almost 5 million more than its predecessor). Nintendo could easily release them that close together again. But they probably won't. Not because of business, but because of development. Smash Bros has to be made for Wii U and 3DS, and the two versions need to release around the same time as each other. It simply won't be ready in time for release at the time that Nintendo is ready to release MK8.

And the main reason why Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros stand "head-and-shoulders above" the rest of the lineup as we know it is that we don't even know half of the 2014 lineup. Consider that DKC:TF was meant to be 2013, so we know of just four confirmed 2014 titles that aren't 2014 due to a delay (Mario Kart 8, Smash Bros, X, and Bayonetta 2) - and X is seen as just as notable as MK8. Do you really think that Nintendo doesn't have a heap of unannounced titles waiting to be revealed? There's no way that they hold off on either MK8 or Smash Bros for "business reasons" when the Wii U isn't flourishing. They'll be released as soon as they're ready, or within a few weeks of that day.

By the way, to the person who suggested that Nintendo planned on Smash and MK8 both releasing before end of financial year in order to reach the 9 million mark, because MK8 wouldn't be enough... I'll tell you right now, Smash wouldn't have anywhere near the impact of MK8. As I mentioned above, Brawl sold 12 million copies on the Wii, while MKWii sold 34 million. If MK8 isn't significantly going to drive Wii U sales (no pun intended), Smash will have even less impact.

Note that I don't think it's impossible, with the right marketing, game releases, etc, for the Wii U to hit 9 million by end of March... but I do think it's unlikely that Nintendo will achieve it. I do think 7 million is achievable, though, between 3D World over the holidays and MK8 in February/March (I assume it'll release somewhere around then), plus Wii Fit U and what I suspect is one surprise title (Nintendo has been curiously quiet about their post-2013 lineup, and I don't believe for a second that we know all of the games for the first half of the year, even).



Aielyn said:
TK14 said:
I called this and posted in many threads that at NO point (barring the "mistake" the other day from a German Nintendo employee) had Nintendo EVER given any indication on WHEN in 2014 Super Smash Bros. would come out. And those who expected it in the first half of the year were just being unrealistic. Wii U has 2 titles that stand head-and-shoulders above the rest of the lineup for 2014 when it comes to their system-selling potential: Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. To release BOTH of those in the same half of the year or even within a few months of each other would be ridiculous from a business perspective.

To be fair, you could have said the same thing in 2008 regarding Mario Kart Wii and Smash Bros Brawl... Smash released in the US in March, and then Mario Kart Wii in April. Mario Kart Wii has sold over 34 million copies, and Brawl is at nearly 12 million (almost 5 million more than its predecessor). Nintendo could easily release them that close together again. But they probably won't. Not because of business, but because of development. Smash Bros has to be made for Wii U and 3DS, and the two versions need to release around the same time as each other. It simply won't be ready in time for release at the time that Nintendo is ready to release MK8.

And the main reason why Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros stand "head-and-shoulders above" the rest of the lineup as we know it is that we don't even know half of the 2014 lineup. Consider that DKC:TF was meant to be 2013, so we know of just four confirmed 2014 titles that aren't 2014 due to a delay (Mario Kart 8, Smash Bros, X, and Bayonetta 2) - and X is seen as just as notable as MK8. Do you really think that Nintendo doesn't have a heap of unannounced titles waiting to be revealed? There's no way that they hold off on either MK8 or Smash Bros for "business reasons" when the Wii U isn't flourishing. They'll be released as soon as they're ready, or within a few weeks of that day.

By the way, to the person who suggested that Nintendo planned on Smash and MK8 both releasing before end of financial year in order to reach the 9 million mark, because MK8 wouldn't be enough... I'll tell you right now, Smash wouldn't have anywhere near the impact of MK8. As I mentioned above, Brawl sold 12 million copies on the Wii, while MKWii sold 34 million. If MK8 isn't significantly going to drive Wii U sales (no pun intended), Smash will have even less impact.

Note that I don't think it's impossible, with the right marketing, game releases, etc, for the Wii U to hit 9 million by end of March... but I do think it's unlikely that Nintendo will achieve it. I do think 7 million is achievable, though, between 3D World over the holidays and MK8 in February/March (I assume it'll release somewhere around then), plus Wii Fit U and what I suspect is one surprise title (Nintendo has been curiously quiet about their post-2013 lineup, and I don't believe for a second that we know all of the games for the first half of the year, even).

You make a lot of good points, and it's certainly a fair opinion to have...though I would say you're a bit optimistic. Brawl and Mario Kart Wii came out together in 2008 because they were ready around the same time (Brawl had a notorious number of delays...was intended to come out at several points in 2007) and from a business perspective...the Wii was already selling anyway based on the power of Wii Sports and Wii Play and Wii Fit. It was selling so fast that at that point they couldn't even keep enough systems on shelves to meet demand still. Wii U is in a VERY different position. Also, if I recall, after that amazing Spring of 2008...that E3 was a bomb, the rest of the year was mediocre, and most of 2009 was fairly disappointing as well from a first-party software perspective. And yet, the Wii was still selling like hotcakes (especially during the holidays) in 2008 and 2009. With Wii U...I feel like they're more concerned with spreading things out...having a fairly steady release schedule so there aren't any more gigantic gaps (like there were from January through August of this year). The Wii U isn't automatically selling and it also currently loses them money on each system sold (as opposed to Wii's automatic profit), so their goal is to achieve sustained sales momentum and increase the low install base in order to sell more software which will counteract their hardware losses (3DS and its games can help with this too, obviously). In order to do this, they likely see the value in spreading out the titles with the most sales potential throughout the year, rather than going back-to-back with them. Also, as you mentioned, with Sakurai being a perfectionist and Smash Bros. starting development just in March/April of 2012 (after Kid Icarus), it most likely simply won't be ready in time to release that close to Mario Kart 8. 

Now, I'm not saying they COULDN'T or WOULDN'T release Smash Bros. close to MK8, I just think it's extremely unlikely, as I think Smash Bros. would be their most desired title to push as the BIG November 2014 holiday release. Your statement that X is just as notable as MK8 is silly. X is (presumably) a sequel/spiritual successor to a niche JRPG which never reached a million copies sold worldwide on a system with a 90 million install base at the time (not hatin' on Xenoblade, you can check out the Top 50 games thread and see that it's my favorite game of all time), and while I personally am looking forward to X more than any other game in 2014, from Nintendo's business perspective, X is simply not going to make them nearly as much money, nor push Wii U systems the way that Smash Bros. and MK8 will. I DO think it is also worth mentioning that Sakurai hinted last E3 that the 3DS and Wii U versions of Smash Bros. may not release at the same time. The 3DS version is supposed to let you do some kinds of customization on moves/attacks and characters that could then be carried into the Wii U version. If so, it's likely they would release that version first. Separating them would also help make sure the Wii U version gets its own time in the spotlight, away from the 3DS' much larger audience.  So it's certainly a possibility that the 3DS version of Smash could come out fairly close to MK8, though if I had to guess I'd say maybe August or September for that and then again November for the Wii U version. 

As for your assertion that they have a bunch of games they haven't even revealed yet for this year...I want SO MUCH to believe that. Believe me...I hope you're right and I hope they blow us away with Nintendo Direct and E3 reveals next year. But...I worry it just may not be the case. I'm sure they'll have games to reveal throughout the year...but I guess I just dont' feel that confident that they will necessarily turn out to be games for 2014. They'll show off Zelda which I expect for 2015 (though again, I WISH WISH WISH it was a 2014 title). They'll show off SMT X FE, which I also expect to be for 2015-given that they had NOTHING to show when it was originally announced. Yarn Yoshi will get a proper trailer and could easily be a 2nd half 2014 title. Bayonetta 2 and X and the 3rd Sonic game will be this year...plus Wii Fit U (retail version), DKC: TF, MK8, and I agree with people who suspect Nintendo will release a retail compilation of Wii Sports Club once all 5 games are out. Anyway, my point is they already have a solid number of games that could release next year, and will hopefully have a little 3rd party support and maybe one or two titles that they can reveal and release in 2014...but I don't know...I think when they did that BIG Nintendo Direct in January and revealed Yarn Yoshi, X, SMT X FE, etc...I think that was done a bit out of desperation. They already knew Pikmin 3, Wii Fit U, The Wonderful 101, etc were being delayed...and so rather than acknowledge that immediately they chose to announce some games far earlier than they normally would...kind of like Iwata announcing the next Smash Bros a full year before it even began development. 

Sorry for the walls of text, just my thoughts. And again, I hope I'm wrong and hope you're right, but after the first half of 2013, I just don't want to set myself up for disappointment again. So, I'm being cautious and trying to be realistic about the release schedule for next year. 

One last thought...I also don't think DCK: TF was "delayed"...I think it was deliberately and strategically held back because without it they would have another gap in the January-March period leading up to MK8. I could be wrong on that, but if I'm right, that also means that Wii Fit U, DKC: TF, and MK8 are likely the first 3 titles of the year...and everything else (Bayonetta 2, X, Yarn Yoshi, Smash Bros., Wii Sports Club, unannounced stuff) will come after...so again, that being a fairly solid lineup for May and beyond, I don't think it would be unrealistic to think that maybe they won't have much to add to the lineup for 2014, and will instead start showing off the games for 2015 (like Zelda). Again, hope I'm wrong...hope ALL of those games come out before E3 and then at E3 they announce Zelda, SMT X FE, Metroid, Wave Race, The Last Story 2, Super Mario Universe, Kirby, Star Fox, etc. all as games for the second half of 2014. Just don't think that's realistic, so trying not to be THAT optimistic. :p



Upcoming Games To Get

Definite: Kirby Star Allies (Switch), Mario Tennis Aces (Switch), Fire Emblem (Switch), Yoshi (Switch), Pokemon (Switch), Kingdom Hearts 3 (PS4), Monster Hunter World (PS4)

Considering: Fe (Switch), Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze (Switch), The World Ends With You (Switch), Ys VIII (Switch), Street Fighter V: Arcade Edition (PS4), Kingdom Hearts 2.8 Remix (PS4), The Last Guardian (PS4), Shadow of the Colossus HD (PS4), Anthem (PS4), Shenmue 3 (PS4), WiLD (PS4)

So getting a Wii U Q4 2014 or Q12015



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kupomogli said:
So getting a Wii Q4 2014 or Q12015


If you can find a Wii on shelves at that point, go for it! Bet they'll be like $80! :p



Upcoming Games To Get

Definite: Kirby Star Allies (Switch), Mario Tennis Aces (Switch), Fire Emblem (Switch), Yoshi (Switch), Pokemon (Switch), Kingdom Hearts 3 (PS4), Monster Hunter World (PS4)

Considering: Fe (Switch), Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze (Switch), The World Ends With You (Switch), Ys VIII (Switch), Street Fighter V: Arcade Edition (PS4), Kingdom Hearts 2.8 Remix (PS4), The Last Guardian (PS4), Shadow of the Colossus HD (PS4), Anthem (PS4), Shenmue 3 (PS4), WiLD (PS4)

TK14 said:
kupomogli said:
So getting a Wii Q4 2014 or Q12015


If you can find a Wii on shelves at that point, go for it! Bet they'll be like $80! :p

I didn't add the U.  Thanks for letting me know.  Fixed i t.



   Spring 2014 is too early for Smash Bros 4...  Summer 2014  is more likely.



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

Just to clarify some confusion over Nintendo's 9 million target:

Nintendo are not estimating that Wii U's total install base will be 9 million units by the end of March. They forecast that they would be able to sell 9 million units within this financial year. They are definitely going to miss that target by a significant amount, expect it to finally be revised down in January.

Mario Kart 8 was confirmed for spring at E3. I'm thinking it'll release globally in April. I'd hope for Smash in June, but I'm not betting on that.



Mario Kart 8 will eat all my time anyways.