PooperScooper said:
Stever I didnt say where it came from. But again it doesnt matter if he raised UK and lowered Germany. It doesn't matter how big of a difference came out of it. What matters is he should stop shifting and changing. You say so yourself he wants to go off his samples. If he went by other trackers why do what he does? HE SHOULD GO OFF HIS SAMPLES! |
Did you read my post that I was referring to? The one that would explain why he might not use his own samples, maybe because they aren't accurate enough yet? Europe is probably very touch and go, since it's probably harder to get reliable tracking numbers without enough of a sampling pool.
To quote myself (edited for clarity and to make it shorter):
My view of it is that the markets in Europe are much smaller than the US market (relative to the total NA market). Take a look at this chart. The Total Others market as a whole is about as big as the NA market, but each market is much smaller, and GFK and ChartTrack (as far as I know) track each country separately, and I believe it was GFK that said they tracked 80% of Germany's market. Germany as a whole is much smaller than US, so it's 80% could be very accurate, compared to NPD estimated 60% of the US market. Also, if you're off by 100k in Germany, it's nearly 10% of the entire market (all the consoles added together) at this time. If you're off 100k in the US, it's only less than 1% of any console, and much less the entire market. The fact that he's 60k less on the PS3 is hardly that big in the scope of things.
Basically what I'm trying to say is that he probably doesn't have a very good coverage of Europe, and combine that with the smaller market, he has more reasons to change those numbers, whereas in US he probably has a better coverage, and it's a bigger market.
To sum it up, if he lacks good samples of the Europe market, his numbers might not be that great. As for the US, he might have a good amount of samples, and they are probably more accurate (as has been shown in the past), and so he has no reason to adjust them. As such, though he may like to go by his own samples and numbers, he knows (and we all know) that his numbers are only as good as the samples he has behind them. If he only covers 10% of the stores in Germany, he might not get a very good picture of sales. 10% of the stores in the US would actually be much better, since the market is so much larger. It's very hard to explain, but it has to do with deviations and averages, and the greater the sample relative to the market, the better. But the bigger the market, the better the sample should be even at smaller percentages because it covers a wider range of samples.
