Quantcast
Locked: The official January NPD Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The official January NPD Thread

 

 Software

360 839k
PS3 140k



Around the Network

Btw, with Canada, PS3 did around 300k, right? =)
Cool. =)

Then weekly sales are around 70-80k, so probably and February sales are higer then just 50-60k. =)

Total PS3 DOMINATION. =)

70-80k USA.
60-70k Erope.
30-40k Japan.

With Maximum sales, it`s ~8 mln. in 40 weeks.
To sell another 8 mln. in last 12 weeks..
Oh, shit, THIS is POSSIBLE with 299$ price. =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Lynn said:

 

Software

360 839k
PS3 140k


 But you didn't include the blu ray sales



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

TheSource said:

Here are my estimates so far on the differences in totals

 

  VGC US NPD Tot NPD Est % Diff Abs. Val.
Wii 327,000 274,000 295,000 11 11
PS3 202,000 269,000 289,000 -30 30
Xbox 360 287,000 230,000 247,000 16 16
PS2 231,000 264,000 284,000 -19 19
DS 547,000 251,000 270,000 103 103
PSP 269,000 230,000 247,000 9 9
          31.30%

Differences are based on VGC/NPD since NPD has more coverage of stores than we do. 


NPD Total Estimate = NPD USA x 1.075 (to estimate Canada)

Without the massive DS error, the data would be at about the usual 10-15% level of difference (on average) with NPD.

Also, Wii is close enough that it has still passed Gamecube.

Whats interesting is how similar some software is.  But I'm still going through the software. 

 

 


 TheSource: besides the DS, 30% less for PS3 is also pretty unusual. It actually sounds even worse when comparing the PS3 with the slightly over tracked 360 (+16%) and Wii (+11%).

Seems to me that, once again, the PS2 and PS3 were under tracked (especially the PS3). PSP and Wii are fine (about 10%), 360 was a little over tracked and the DS was... well, no comment here ;)

 Anyway, this is nothing major. VGC is still #1 :) You guys rule and I know you will use this data to improve your estimates in the future. I have a feeling 2008 will be a very hard year to predict ;)

 



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

so are the numbers going to be adjusted appropriately???
or are the staying the same?



Around the Network

I felt all month that VGC was a bit high on SMG, SMG is not the type of game that sells more than hardware moves. However, I think NDP is wrong on this also. They do not have Nintendo's #1 and 2 retailers (Walmart and TRU). I think in general 360 owners (especially COD4 gamers) are more likely to buy games online. If someone wants mario they go walmart and buy it, casual are generally less "linked".
I am thinking that it should look something like this

220k SMG
270k COD4

I also don't get COD4 selling 100k more than 360's were sold... this number is wrong. (both VGC and NPD) It is not like 100,000 360 owner "forgot" to buy it over Cmas. COD4's legs will die quick(soon)

The reason I believed SMG was being overtracked is because there were weeks when only 50k of the Wii were moved but 90-100k of SMG were sold. Like I said that is not how mario sells, look at NSMB, it generally sells in proportion to HW.

All in all it looks like the DS did what it did last year, and somehow ioi did not reconize it.

Also, since the Wii is supply controlled(and not demand) it is very possible Nintendo sent extra demand to Canada(where Wii is even more popular per capa) it could be more like 15% who knows.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Can anyone explain the DS error? Everything else isn't THAT off, good job guys. It's always nice to see the PS3 undertracked and then changed, it gives me something happyy to smile about later.



Well this is a HUGE Suprise, I was not expecting "shortages" coming from the xbox 360. Also the PS3 nearly sold as much as the wii? In the U.S? WTF?

Very strange numbers indeed. The ps3 then actually has passed 10 million, Im very impressed with sony. Im dissapointed in microsoft, nintendo is doind very well still, Im very shocked in DS sales. First japan now U.S?



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

Again, the SMG LTD numbers between NPD and VGC are almost an exact match. While NPD may have reported lower numbers in January than VGC, they might have been higher in Nov and DEC.



good call fishy, do you agree with my take on NPD sucking w/o TRU and WM for Wii software? (directed at Fishy Joe)



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut