It is inevitable that this gen will sell less than last gens 270 Million + systems. The market has changed dramatically just in the last 3 years. Tablets and smartphones have consumed a majority of the casual buyers (about 50 million+ Wii units last gen). That alone will lead to a dramatic shift. Also, the 360 probably picked up 10-20 million casuals with the Kinect gimmick. I am not saying that all casuals will abandon the console market, I am just saying that there will be fewer. Even a bunch of the core gamers have converted to steam because of the length of this console generation. Some or many may just stick with PC's with a smartphone or tablet. Within 2 years, tablet power will be enough to output games in 1080p(or even 720p) that are "good enough" for the casual crowds to no bother with a console.

Like I said, it's a different marketplace.

There´s one key fact that also make me doubt that any brand this generation will surpass its predecessors

Every main console launched after 2006, with the exception of the Wii, struggled to sell well on its first months or even years. PS3 and Xbox 360 only started to sell really well after price drops. The same goes for 3ds. Vita and WiiU are still struggling, even with competitive prices (of course there´s the game library problem, but both consoles actually have great libraries by now)

Can this be an indication that part of those consumers may not be willing to spent big money on consoles anymore? right now we are hiding the waves of hype and holidays heat. I´m really curious to see how each platform will perform in 2014 Q1-Q2

2013 is not even over, so for starters it's a flawed comparison when the biggest month of the year is missing from the data.

Then there's the fact that two of the consoles just launched so of course their sales are lower than in a regular year.

Even taking that into account, the PS home console numbers will end up well above 2012 numbers (as in, millions above) and the Xbox brand will end up above, too. The PS and Xbox brands combined (home consoles) will sell more this year than either 2012, 2011 or 2010. Next year their market will grow again and the difference will be much bigger.

The only brand in decline is Wii, of course since Wii brought a new market in, an overall decline is inevitable. But the traditional market doesn't seem to be shrinking looking at these numbers, far from it.

That's not how installbase and market works.

Many of those 160m x360/ps3 users are the same as many gamers have both consoles. Wii was a compliment console, so many of the sales are from the same gamers that have a 360, a ps3 or both. Also, many sold their Wii's and bought a new one again thanks to the cheap price.

In fact, we only know shipments but not userbase. The grow came for all the people who bought a Wii for Wii Fit/Wii Sports.

That's the tail end of a generation. Fact is this last generation sold more consoles than the one before it, which sold more than the one before that.

Its not shrinking. Its growing. There's far more players who own multiple consoles and that will continue in this new generation.

I don't think this generation will have more home console sales than the last generation.  You had three consoles either at or near 100 million, and I don't see it this generation, especially with the Wii U predicted to do Gamecube numbers.  And handhelds won't top the DS and PSP combo either.  So the seventh generation will be the peak for total home and portable console sales, and the individual portable console peak with the DS.  And the PS2 will probably never be topped either for home consoles.

I think software sales are a better reflection of how the game console industry is doing.

This ignores how many people are actively buying/playing games over new people buying consoles.

I can't believe this thread is still open?!

The gen was insanely long
Most people had already the console they wanted and some even replaced them 2-3 times over this long Gen.
If the PS4 would have Supply for 10 Million they would have sold that - Numbers will pick up when Sony has supply cause people are hungry for a new console.

I'd buy a next gen console today for either the FFVII remake, Shenmue 3, a Tactical Ogre, FFT 2, Xenogears remake, Street Fighter V or a next Chrono.

And its time for a new Road Rash too.