I'm saying last generation likely won't be repeated. PS4/X1 will probably sell the same as the 360/PS3, just with a different split.
There is no equivalent to the Wii this coming generation though. Wii U will be a GameCube. There's a lot of people who bought Wiis that won't be buying a console this generation.
The growth the industry enjoyed last gen was pretty much entirely driven by Nintendo.
Well it's true the wiiU probably won't reach the level of the wii.
But one important think that I believe you are forgetting is the growth of consoles sales in markets that aren't the classic 3.
I'm pretty confident we won't be dissapointed by sales this gen