Where have they projected that?
If it has better than the trailer graphics in a 10h relatively open world game, it must be created by a huge team, and therefore require 6m+ sales to make the money back. If it doesn't cost that much, it can't be one of that quality, that length or that open.
For a rough benchmark on quality vs budget vs projections, Tomb Raider and Sleeping Dogs lost money because they projected 6m+ sales and sold less, that's direct from their financial reports.
Why use a troubled third party for production budgets/projections? They're making games for and projecting sales across three platforms.
It took Crystal Dynamics 5 years to push Tomb Raider out the door and that was with a second studio, Edios Montreal, making the multiplayer component.
While Tomb Raider is perhaps understandable, Sleeping Dogs really shows how out of touch with reality SE were. Activizion actually dropped the game after projecting, even with their most optimistic sales forecasts and the addition of having the True Crime brand attached to the game, no real profit to be made off the title. SE then came along and secured the rights. After 4 years of development, 2 delays, a bloated budget and a complete rebranding surprise surprise, the game didnt sell what they anticipated.
Mike Fischer, president and chief executive of Square Enix U.S on why activizion dropped Sleeping Dogs/ True Crime. "All I know is, they've gotta be crazy. Because this game is just fantastic."
Crazy enough to sense a bomb on their hands indeed SE.