As awesome as it looks, I'm not gonna touch anything for 60$ that's less than 10 Hours long.

Where have they projected that?

If it has better than the trailer graphics in a 10h relatively open world game, it must be created by a huge team, and therefore require 6m+ sales to make the money back. If it doesn't cost that much, it can't be one of that quality, that length or that open.

For a rough benchmark on quality vs budget vs projections, Tomb Raider and Sleeping Dogs lost money because they projected 6m+ sales and sold less, that's direct from their financial reports.

If it has better than the trailer graphics in a 10h relatively open world game, it must be created by a huge team, and therefore require 6m+ sales to make the money back. If it doesn't cost that much, it can't be one of that quality, that length or that open.

For a rough benchmark on quality vs budget vs projections, Tomb Raider and Sleeping Dogs lost money because they projected 6m+ sales and sold less, that's direct from their financial reports.

So they haven't projected that then...

New IP on new hardware will never ship those numbers.  It would be financial suicide if they did unless Sony want this game to be a loss Leader.

I expect 2m - 3m (2.7 if I were to put a finger on it) just because they will probably bundle this as their major Q3 title.

If it has better than the trailer graphics in a 10h relatively open world game, it must be created by a huge team, and therefore require 6m+ sales to make the money back. If it doesn't cost that much, it can't be one of that quality, that length or that open.

For a rough benchmark on quality vs budget vs projections, Tomb Raider and Sleeping Dogs lost money because they projected 6m+ sales and sold less, that's direct from their financial reports.

@bolded - it isnt in a relatively open world game. the game is a linear game, with a linear story. very much like uncharted. they started in late 2010 so they been working on this for 3 years now. the team is around 100 people know but when they started it was a much smaller team. 

umm no, TLoU sold 3.4 million and that EXCEEDED expectations and made a profit. that game was also a new IP and took 3.5 years to make. you are pulling these numbers out of your nowhere, please back them up. according to this you are estimating that the game needs 204 million to break even, thats of course if we take that all sales are at full price and all at retail. 

Things that figure doesn't include: publishing staff costs, marketing costs (sometimes as much as the entire game budget), external contracting, and so on. I'm thinking at least $100m, yes.

I see no evidence The Last Of Us made a profit.

Tomb Raider and Sleeping Dogs didnt lose money. they didnt meet expectations, there is a huge difference. Crystal Dynamics said they were really happy with TR sales. it was Square who said it didnt meet expectations. if they didnt make a profit they wouldnt be making a sequal too. 

“SLEEPING DOGS,” “Hitman: Absolution,” and “TOMB RAIDER”—failed to reach their respective targets, and resulted in financially unsatisfactory consequences. They were a major factor in the deterioration of profits.We do not recognize this situation as a temporary phenomenon. That is to say, the financial results posted in the fiscal year under review reflect an intrinsic problem within the HD game business model" - Square Enix

The sequels are because anything else they do in the HD space would be an even bigger failure. If you read the report, they'd love to leave the space altogether over the massive and insoluble financial issues with those games.

we dont know how the length of the game is, the budget, if the game has multiplayer or how much sony is projecting for it to sell. yet you somehow manage to tell us its length and how much it needs to profit. seems legit. 

Yes, I have this tool, it's called logic. By examining past games that have failed, I can say that more ambitious games that sell less will fail harder.