By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - VGChartz Europeans, I need your help.

the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:
 

Were you paying attention to greece and Spain before austerity?

 

To blame austerity is like blaming chemotherapy for making cancer patients sick.

You've got to be having a laugh if you think austerity is helping spain or greece in any way

Things in them countries won't great before but at least they didn't have 30% unemployment and people won't relying on the church or having to steal food or electricity to survive. Spain and Greece are like 3rd world countries now. Greece must of lost about a 1/4 of its economy to thin air by now and if austerity works, why is it taking so long to prove it? Asia is laughing at us. Austerity has certainly made things much worse. Being tied to the Euro certainly don't help either.  

Apparently you hadn't been paying attention to greece, because yes... it was like that before Austierity.

Austerity is taking so long to work... because austerity took so long to implement.

That and because they haven't applied needed structural reforms.

It don't work because they cut the wrong areas. They hapilly cut stuff like education and other vital services in Greece which help the economy in the long run. But do these politicians cut there own wages? NO! Do they close tax loopholes or pursue tax avoiders? of course not! Anything that don't affects them is cut first because they don't care about the morons who elect them constantly. All the while, pushing there own failings onto immigrants and fuelling extremist nationalism. Ain't that clever and sly of the Greek politicians? Of course, Greece won't be fixed over night but they need to realise there current policies aren't working at all. Otherwise, they likely would of been on the mend by now. This really is like the 30's all over again. 


You can be upset with what they cut.  I think they've left a lot of stuff uncut that should be myself.  Like their military buildup for their coldwar against turkey over cyprus that will likely never evolve into anything.

However,  without austerity, they would of defaulted on their debts harder, been forcibly kicked out of the europeon Union, defaulted on their debt, and been forced to return to the Dracmha.  Which would of been devalued to Zimbabwe/Post World War 1 german levels.

Leaving Greece in the position of REAL third world countries, like Somalia. 

Unable to import things like even simple medicine...

You think 30% unemployment is bad... we're talking >50%  Unemployment.



Around the Network
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:

It don't work because they cut the wrong areas. They hapilly cut stuff like education and other vital services in Greece which help the economy in the long run. But do these politicians cut there own wages? NO! Do they close tax loopholes or pursue tax avoiders? of course not! Anything that don't affects them is cut first because they don't care about the morons who elect them constantly. All the while, pushing there own failings onto immigrants and fuelling extremist nationalism. Ain't that clever and sly of the Greek politicians? Of course, Greece won't be fixed over night but they need to realise there current policies aren't working at all. Otherwise, they likely would of been on the mend by now. This really is like the 30's all over again. 


You can be upset with what they cut.  I think they've left a lot of stuff uncut that should be myself.  Like their military buildup for their coldwar against turkey over cyprus that will likely never evolve into anything.

However,  without austerity, they would of defaulted on their debts harder, been forcibly kicked out of the europeon Union, defaulted on their debt, and been forced to return to the Dracmha.  Which would of been devalued to Zimbabwe/Post World War 1 german levels.

Leaving Greece in the position of REAL third world countries, like Somalia. 

Unable to import things like even simple medicine...

You think 30% unemployment is bad... we're talking >50%  Unemployment.

It would probably be better for them if they left the EU. I'm sure the Germans must be fed with bailing them out all the time, even if it gives them power over Greece. They need to at least get off the euro so they can control currency issues again. 



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:


You can be upset with what they cut.  I think they've left a lot of stuff uncut that should be myself.  Like their military buildup for their coldwar against turkey over cyprus that will likely never evolve into anything.

However,  without austerity, they would of defaulted on their debts harder, been forcibly kicked out of the europeon Union, defaulted on their debt, and been forced to return to the Dracmha.  Which would of been devalued to Zimbabwe/Post World War 1 german levels.

Leaving Greece in the position of REAL third world countries, like Somalia. 

Unable to import things like even simple medicine...

You think 30% unemployment is bad... we're talking >50%  Unemployment.

It would probably be better for them if they left the EU. I'm sure the Germans must be fed with bailing them out all the time, even if it gives them power over Greece. They need to at least get off the euro so they can control currency issues again. 

I feel like you have no concept of what greece would look like without the EU.

Greece fundamentally screwed up it's economy after joining the EU.  The above is what would happen if the Drachma decoupled.



I agree with you.

_____________________________________________

Smoothies Recipes 



PDF said:
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:

 

I feel like you have no concept of what greece would look like without the EU.

Greece fundamentally screwed up it's economy after joining the EU.  The above is what would happen if the Drachma decoupled.

This debate greatly demonstrates what I have learned about Europeans view on the EU.   UK have a negative view, while the rest of the Europe have a more positive view.

Watching a documentary done by the BBC, I was somewhat shocked to see the Greeks say that staying on the Euro was the best move forward.  The host of the documentary who has British kept making the argument that currency manipulation was Greece strongest move.  Allowing them to devalue their currency in order to become competitive again.  Yet from Germany to Greece everyone disagreed with him.

I mean, i'll put it this way.

Currency manipulation would be one of their strongest moves

Greece should of never joined the Euro.

If Greece could detangle themselves from the Euro without committing Seppeku they should.

They just... can't though.

I'd say there strongest move would be to greatly reduce regulations on opening buisnesses, running and hiring and go hard against the rampant tax evasion done by the rich.

I mean shit...

"If Greece’s 1,500 biggest tax debtors paid, the government would easily wipe out its budget deficit for 2013. Analysts estimate that the taxes avoided by Greeks of all income levels total 55 billion euros, which would help Greece return to firmer financial footing."

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/13/business/global/greek-tax-crackdown-yields-little-revenue.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0

 

Currency manipulation doesn't mean much if nobody is paying the government.  



Around the Network
PDF said:


What would you suggest Spain does?  Do you think Austerity is the answer for a country who did not have huge amount of debt and was fairly responsible prior to the 08 housing market crash.  Austerity could further push their incredibly high unemployment rate even higher.


No.  Spain's recent problems aren't related to debt.  Just the construction bubble bursting.

Spain's economy has recovered fairly quickly and pretty nicely off from an unsustainable bubble...

  but Spain's economic problems were big before the financial crisis ever occured, hidden by the data in some regards... and the same base issues are there.

Spain's pretty much always had a huge unemployment rate. .. espeically for younger employees.

What Spain needs is less rigid employment laws and buisnsess laws... which are unlikely to pass, because of just how stupid Franco was in pushing things the opposite way.

Unions and labor laws protect workers... but the problem is, they only protect current workers.  Letting older workers stay around past their prime, and past the point of where they have more then enough money to live out their retirements.

It's hard to lay off workers, making it harder for companies in Spain to take risks, knowing that if the risks fail they're stuck with employees they can't use.



PDF said:
Kasz216 said:

No.  Spain's recent problems aren't related to debt.  Just the construction bubble bursting.

Spain's economy has recovered fairly quickly and pretty nicely off from an unsustainable bubble...

  but Spain's economic problems were big before the financial crisis ever occured, hidden by the data in some regards... and the same base issues are there.

Spain's pretty much always had a huge unemployment rate. .. espeically for younger employees.

What Spain needs is less rigid employment laws and buisnsess laws... which are unlikely to pass, because of just how stupid Franco was in pushing things the opposite way.

Unions and labor laws protect workers... but the problem is, they only protect current workers.  Letting older workers stay around past their prime, and past the point of where they have more then enough money to live out their retirements.

It's hard to lay off workers, making it harder for companies in Spain to take risks, knowing that if the risks fail they're stuck with employees they can't use.


So your in agreement that the policy of the EU (germans) that austerity is a one size fits all economic problems is not a good idea?  


Yep.  It's just a good idea for most of the effected places.

Though I don't think Austerity ended up hurting anything, it didn't help.

The economy has recovered on it's own... because that's what economies do.



PDF said:
Kasz216 said:
PDF said:
Kasz216 said:

No.  Spain's recent problems aren't related to debt.  Just the construction bubble bursting.

Spain's economy has recovered fairly quickly and pretty nicely off from an unsustainable bubble...

  but Spain's economic problems were big before the financial crisis ever occured, hidden by the data in some regards... and the same base issues are there.

Spain's pretty much always had a huge unemployment rate. .. espeically for younger employees.

What Spain needs is less rigid employment laws and buisnsess laws... which are unlikely to pass, because of just how stupid Franco was in pushing things the opposite way.

Unions and labor laws protect workers... but the problem is, they only protect current workers.  Letting older workers stay around past their prime, and past the point of where they have more then enough money to live out their retirements.

It's hard to lay off workers, making it harder for companies in Spain to take risks, knowing that if the risks fail they're stuck with employees they can't use.


So your in agreement that the policy of the EU (germans) that austerity is a one size fits all economic problems is not a good idea?  


Yep.  It's just a good idea for most of the effected places.

Though I don't think Austerity ended up hurting anything, it didn't help.

The economy has recovered on it's own... because that's what economies do.

How can you say Austerity doesn't hurt anything.  Austerity is often terrible in recession as it dicourages spending which leads to a slower economic recovery. When you cut spending you are laying people off which only adds to the problem.

I think austerity makes sense incases of extreme debt because painful spending cuts is better than defaulting but it is a brutal process and makes it often take longer to rebound the economy.


It's pretty simple... because government spending isn't real.

Government spending outside a few very rare cases doesn't actually create any real economic growth.

If you aren't running a deficit, that money that taxes are using to pay someone else, would end up being spent or invested privately, and it'd all go around all the same.


If you are deficit spending, you are pulling ahead economic activity, but in the end, it's been shown time and time again in research that the debt you have to pay is far greater.  Even the studies that people like to pull forth on how much stimulus increases the economy tend to note that the decrease ends up wiping out any gains PLUS some.



PDF said:
Kasz216 said:


It's pretty simple... because government spending isn't real.

Government spending outside a few very rare cases doesn't actually create any real economic growth.

If you aren't running a deficit, that money that taxes are using to pay someone else, would end up being spent or invested privately, and it'd all go around all the same.


If you are deficit spending, you are pulling ahead economic activity, but in the end, it's been shown time and time again in research that the debt you have to pay is far greater.  Even the studies that people like to pull forth on how much stimulus increases the economy tend to note that the decrease ends up wiping out any gains PLUS some.

The success of the economy is largely based on how people percieve it is doing.  If people think the economy is good they spend money and the economy grows.  If they think it is doing bad the opposite happens.

Whether government spending is "real" or not doesn't matter as much as long as people thinks it matters.  Large amounts of people losing their jobs creates a negative economic environment.

I think you are looking at austerity in a much more long term context.  I am simply talking about during the recession.


Not nearly as much as you think, no.  Belief in the economy is usually strong right before crashes, and public confidence actually often tends to lag behind economic indicators.

The USA has been a good example of both.

Consumer confidence can help the economy run better... but it can't actually improve the economy...

and sometimes too much confidence is a bad thing.

 

Sacrificing a future stronger base market to make a crappier market run smoother doesn't work out.  You just end out dragging out prosperity and making prospeirty shorter.



PDF said:
Kasz216 said:

The success of the economy is largely based on how people percieve it is doing.  If people think the economy is good they spend money and the economy grows.  If they think it is doing bad the opposite happens.

Whether government spending is "real" or not doesn't matter as much as long as people thinks it matters.  Large amounts of people losing their jobs creates a negative economic environment.

I think you are looking at austerity in a much more long term context.  I am simply talking about during the recession.


Not nearly as much as you think, no.  Belief in the economy is usually strong right before crashes, and public confidence actually often tends to lag behind economic indicators.

The USA has been a good example of both.

Consumer confidence can help the economy run better... but it can't actually improve the economy...

and sometimes too much confidence is a bad thing.

 

Sacrificing a future stronger base market to make a crappier market run smoother doesn't work out.  You just end out dragging out prosperity and making prospeirty shorter.

I disagree, I have a hard time believing every professor I have ever had is wrong.  Market confidence drives the economy.  Market confidence, won't save you if that confidence is built on a lie because sooner or later you will find out it is a lie.

Not sure what you mean by run better, and yet won't improve the economy.  It's only logical to assume an economy that runs better is an improvement.

 

For many a recession is very painful experience, especially those who lost their jobs.  I am sure they will trade future economic growth for faster growth right now.   If you were starving, you would surely trade a meal now, for two meals when you are no longer starving.

Govn't should be Austacious (is that a word?) when they can afford to be.  It makes no sense to do it when economy is already being constricted.  I've see no evidence that doing this leads to shorter prosperity.

And what's government spending?

A lie.  It's not real.   We're past the age where companies and dumb enough to expand due to temporary demand created by"fake" money.

 

As for what runs better but doesn't imrpove the economy means... it's pretty simple.

The market fundamentals are the size of the pipe... and consumer confidence how it flows.

When you deficit spend, you increase the flow at the expense of shrinking the pipe.  (Though you don't increase the flow much at all when you have a huge trade deficit, see Keynes)

 

Ask your teachers how useful consumer sentiment surveys and confidence are in predicting the economy, and you'll find they don't, at all.

I don't think  every professor you've had is wrong, i just think you've misunderstood every proffessor you've taken.  (Well not every one, but a decent number of them... really i suppose it depends which country your from.)

 

Really the even keel, not overstimulating the economy countries weathered the GFC greatest, and recovered quickest. 

 

There is really no reasonable reason to ever run a deficit outside of an unavoidable war or gigantic humanitarian need... spain doesn't really fit either.

 

Also, it's not really trade a meal now, for two when you aren't starving, so much as, trade for a meal now, so you can starve again in the future.