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Michael Pachter analyzes the possibility of Wii U reaching its sales expectations

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Michael Pachter analyzes the possibility of Wii U reaching its sales expectations

raise gunpei yokoi from the dead... i am a bit surprised they have not fired Iwata given what they did to yokoi for the flop of the virtual boy... it was pushed out before it was ready and in with fewer colors than yokoi wanted due to cost time constraints to help cover for the delay of the n64.... i liked the virtual boy, really liked its controller but never owned one only got to play it at toys r us



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"Fire Iwata" I love how so many people pretend to know how to run a multibillion dollar company. It's hilarious



ywata predictions are 9 mil to march.
are 4 mil for now, they only need 5 mil.
i believe they can reach 4 mil, so is not so far...



jonathanalis said:
ywata predictions are 9 mil to march.
are 4 mil for now, they only need 5 mil.
i believe they can reach 4 mil, so is not so far...


No he wants 9 mil for this fiscal year which would put it around 12.5m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
jonathanalis said:
ywata predictions are 9 mil to march.
are 4 mil for now, they only need 5 mil.
i believe they can reach 4 mil, so is not so far...


No he wants 9 mil for this fiscal year which would put it around 12.5m

wow, ok.

then i have to agree with pachter.



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zorg1000 said:
jonathanalis said:
ywata predictions are 9 mil to march.
are 4 mil for now, they only need 5 mil.
i believe they can reach 4 mil, so is not so far...


No he wants 9 mil for this fiscal year which would put it around 12.5m


no way in hell they are going to make it. Unless they are absolutely confident  in Super Mario 3D world will go gangbusters (maybe there is a massive marketing campaign prepping behind the scenes). 



tiffac said:

I really believe Ninty will make adjustments to their sales forecast after the holidays. I think their strategy right now, is to hope there is not enough PS4 and X1 during the holidays and people will buy the Wii U instead and catch lightning there

Well, in Japan at least the PS4 isn't coming out until February, meaning the Wii U's only competition is the PS3, and the only big PS3 title coming this holiday is GT6. The PS3 shifted about 309k units in Japan last holiday. The new Wii U bundles in Japan have caused a huge spike in sales, with about 40k sold the week ending Nov. 2, and with SM3DW coming out and no PS4 to compete against, I could definitely see the Wii U winning this holiday season in Japan and perhaps even edging out the PS3 for 2013 sales (it's about 200k behind right now, and if the PS3 adds 300k this holiday, the Wii U needs at least 500k to match the PS3 for the year).

As for America and Europe, it's a bit tougher to call. The 360 and PS3 are still doing fairly well in both regions, and the PS4 and XBO are coming out as well. The former two will likely have a lot of steam let out of them by the latter, though, but they should still post solid sales figures (maybe ~3 million each). With stiffer competition in these two regions, it'll be interesting to see how the price cuts, new bundles, somewhat improved roster of exclusives, and the arrival of SM3DW (which is looking like it'll have a fairly solid launch) will help the Wii U sell in the coming weeks. However, we should also keep in mind that the 360 and PS3 are older systems that are in decline and will likely post lower sales this holiday than last, and as for the PS4 and XBO, early adopters are often not a huge force. The Wii U still had a fairly solid debut of around 900k in America and (NPD says 885k, while VGC says 933k) and around 450k in Europe, but it still didn't become the top system. Even the PS3 and 360 only sold 688k and 607k in their debut holidays in America, failing to outsell the aging PS2 (the PS3 had a February debut in Europe but sold 622k that month according to VGC, while the 360 sold 443k in the region). So, it's possible that the PS4 and XBO won't suck too much life out of the Wii U, which could likely end up being the top-selling eighth-gen system this holiday.

Every home console has done at least as good if not better during its second holiday season than in its debut holiday season (globally, at least), and I expect the Wii U will be no different. Even the GameCube managed to sell over a million units in the U.S. for the Nov.+Dec. period in 2002, and it was competing against the PS2, which had a year's head start on it and had sold a staggering 4 million units here that same holiday season. Neither the 360 nor the Wii sold anywhere close to that much in America during their second holiday seasons. Also, the GC had to fight the Xbox for the remaining scraps. By being the first out of the gate this generation, the Wii U has much more room to breathe than the GC did, and because of that I think it can do well this holiday season. It sold 2.2 million in its debut holiday, and it's in a better position than it was last holiday in terms of price, games, etc. While it's had a lackluster 2013 so far, I still think 3 million units worldwide combined for November & December is a distinct possibility. That's about what the 360 did during the 2006 holiday season and about 500k less than what the PS3 did in holiday '07, so it's not totally unrealistic.



mii-gamer said:


no way in hell they are going to make it. Unless they are absolutely confident  in Super Mario 3D world will go gangbusters (maybe there is a massive marketing campaign prepping behind the scenes). 

Well, I did see a commcial on TV for it today — Imagine that: Nintendo having ads for a Wii U game! — and it has been shooting up the chartz on Amazon (#29 amongst all game products as of right now), so there is a good chance of it doing quite well. Still, no way in hell the Wii U is going to hit 12.5 million LTD by March 31. Probably around 8 million if it does 3 million this holiday season, which is not terrible considering how bad the first three quarters of 2013 was for it.



Typical Patcher just trolling Nintendo/Sony/MS fans just to stay relevant!!! Honestly, if it wasn't for the attention gamers give the guy he would be out of work for all his incompetence? Can't understand how such an idiot can make oodles of money for being wrong!!! It's better to ask the clerk at the videogame dept at Walmart for better insight into games!!! Gamers should just ignore this click bait and he will go away.



Nintendo have been more successful than ever during Iwata's reign and made a ton of money in the process, those calling for his head obviously dont want Nintendo to be successful, sure Nintendo has it's problems but are now starting to make great strides of change along the way.