Forums - Sales Discussion - Vgchartz Sales Prediction League

Here's the link to the first week of the prediction league! http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=170528&page=1#

 

Seeing how fun Seece and Boutros's Metascore Prediction thread is, I have decided to start a weekly sales prediction league. For this thread we will be simply be going over the rules, suggestions, and who is going to be signing up for this.

My plan is to predict sales for the following: Xbox 360 (until the X1 comes out), PS3 (until the PS4 comes out), The Wii U, 2 games for the 360/X1, 2 games for the PS3/PS4, and 2 games for the Wii U. The games I will be selecting will usually be the weekly new releases or if their aren't enough of those, we'll go with popular games that are already out.

The way I'll be assigning points is as follows: 

If your prediction is within 1% of the actual amount, you will get 25 points
If your prediction is within 5% of the actual amount, you will get 6 points
If your prediction is within 10% of the actual amount, you will get 3 points
If your prediction is within 20% of the actual amount, you will get 1 point
If your prediction is over 40% off from the actual amount, you will get -2 points
If your prediction is over 70% off from the actual amount, you will get -5 points

I welcome any suggestions as to changing the percentage and point amounts as well as adding any more categories if needed. 

 

GENERAL INFO:

- For predicting I will give a template (like the one below) so you can copy/paste it and put your predictions in. 

Xbox 360:
Playstation 3:
Wii U:

Grand Theft Auto V (360):
Minecraft (360):
Grand Theft Auto V (PS3):
The Last of Us(PS3):
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD (Wii U):
Nintendo Land (Wii U):

- We will only be predicting whatever global sales are in each weekly chart.
- Since the global chart shows up on the weekend, the last day to get your predictions in will be Thursday every week.
- You don't have to predict every week, you can predict whenever you want. But not participating every week will mean you'll probably drop in the leaderboards.
- I'll let give you at least a weeks notice of what next week's template will be.
- I will post the week's leaderboards a week after that week's global chart arrived to allow for any immediate adjustments that may occur.
- If you notice that number have been adjusted after that, it is your job to let me know. I won't be going back to check later on.

Additional:

I'm looking for one or two backup people who can help me if need be (you have to be decently versed in Excel). For instance, if I'm not able to do an update during a certain week, that person will get a copy of the Excel file sent via email and they will have to input that weeks numbers and make the thread with a picture of the finished product. 

 

RULES:

- Don't try to edit your numbers after that weeks numbers have come out. If you do, you will get banned from participating.
- Always be civil (don't bully people for their predictions).
- I will have a maximum of 100 spots open so If the list gets filled and their are more people that want to join, innactive users will get booted off the list.
- You have to use the given template for your predictions. If you don't, your predictions will not be counted.

 

The very first week we will be predicting is the week ending on 19 October 2013 (that global chart should be on Vgchartz on the 27th of October). I'll probably start the prediction thread for that week at the end of this week. 

Here's a glimpse of what the weekly tables will look like. Big thanks to Boutros who came up with the extremely long formula to make this work more smoothly!

 

 

Thoughts? Suggestions? Questions? Post them below.

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Signup List:

1. yo_john117
2. zorg1000
3. think-man
4. benji232
5. hiimnew
6. DucksUnlimited
7. POE
8. BlowoverKing
9. Figgycal
10. Jizz_Beard_thePirate
11. Mythmaker1
12. ghettoglamour
13. NobleTeam360
14. Purple
15. aviggo77
16. Turkish
17. Conegamer
18. Ponyless
19. TruckOSaurus
20. ethomaz
21. Carl2291
22. Talal
23. AlphaCielago
24. RenCutypoison
25. Sethnintendo
26. Ninjahound101
27. Simulacrum
28. BHR-3
29. nnodley
30. JayWood2010
31. psrock
32. Boutros
33. ruimartiniman
34. PDF
35. Fusioncode
36. Zappykins
37. zuvuyeay
38. radsihhead
39. Leadified
40. FatedReality
41. pezus
42. Proclus
43. Farsala
44. ironmanDX
45. enrageorange



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I would like to participate

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Im in.

Count me in! Sounds like a great idea.

Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

I'm in. Can we vote for the games chosen?

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hiimnew said:
I'm in. Can we vote for the games chosen?

As much as I'd like to do that, doing so would cause way more work and possible confusion. But rest assured, I'll try to pick the best games for each week that fit the average user's taste here.



I would like to participate in this activity.

Im in too


Sign me up, I'll give it a try.

PSN: extremeM

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I'm in.